Thanks, I'm enjoying talking about it as well. One thing that I'm weighing pretty heavily is the assumption that the Jets would be able to extract a lot of draft picks from the Eagles. If they were willing to do an RG III type trade, I view that as a better option. Using the RG III trade as an example: they got three first round picks and a second round pick, to move from #6 to #2. Moving all the way from 20-whatever to #6 is an even bigger jump. So, the Jets might be able to get the Eagles to give them that kind of deal, or more (since it's a steeper drop for the Jets.) It's well-known that Chip Kelly will do basically anything to get Mariota, and given that desperation, I would rather see the Jets try to extract the maximum value they can get out of that #6 pick. Mariota is more of a gamble than a slew of other picks, and we have lots of holes in the roster. We could also use some of the picks to trade up next year for a QB. I think even Johnny Manziel could legitimately have been the #1 overall pick last year. That would have seemed reasonable at the time. (Based on what we know now, obviously that would have been a huge mistake, and not just for substance-issues.) I get nervous about these hyped QBs, whose college games are so far removed from the NFL style. Those QBs capture your imagination with their high ceilings, yeah, but how'd that work out for RG III and Johnny Football? People expect a QB picked top-10 overall to come in and immediately be decent. RG III was spectacular his first year and seemed bad after that- overall he looks like a bust, considering what was given up to get him. That just makes me feel less confident in Mariota, so I'd rather take the picks. If Mariota was available and lets say for whatever reason the Eagles didn't want him - that would be a different situation. I'd be more inclined to agree with you - but given the high chance that the Jets would be able to get tons of picks, I think the Jets would be better off going that route. I think it's very likely that Chip Kelly is trying to work trade deals with all 5 teams ahead of the Jets. (Yes, even #1 overall, just to gauge what they'd want for it.) Mariota might very well be taken a #2 or #3, because if Chip Kelly is willing to trade tons of picks, why wait until #6 to do it? He might be afraid of another team swooping in and trading up before the Jets get their turn. Anyway - the Jets will be very fortunate if Mariota is available, because I think they'd be in position to pull off an epic trade that would really help the franchise.
The concepts of "almost" and "guarantee" are oxymorons. How about "you'd bet" or "you're sure"? You'd still be wrong. You realize there's still a chance Mariota goes BEFORE Winston this year and aore than even chance that Mariota goes before RG3 in every case depending on the draft order? No guarantees of course. No one can give those. _
You're confusing what was considered guaranteed NFL success with Luck with simply being a difference making QB regardless of how certain it was prior to the draft. That's the only relevant discussion of Luck, because Luck certainly isn't the only QB in history to turn a bad team into a good team. Your position was that the Jets aren't a QB away from being good. That's false. The right QB could very easily make them good.
While trading from the 20th pick to 6 leap frogs more teams, trading up to the 2nd pick (as the Redskins did) at least draft point wise is considered a higher leap (when going by draft chart values). I understand that not everyone sticks w/the draft chart value, but you can't just look at going up 14 spots as being more than 4 spots w/out factoring in where the picks are (the 2nd overall pick has much more perceived value than the 6th).
no i know..im just saying everyone is making it a lock that mariota will be a eagle..there to many moving parts for anyone to think about that..that RUMOR of the jets trading the pick is def bs
its march..people make it out like theres a deal in place..why would chip kelly risk him falling to the jets and then trade up…other teams could move up to #2,#3,#4 etc…I'm saying if he wants him so bad he should trade up to 2 like washington did to secure there guy without messing around…now if chip doesn't get mariota he looks stupid
There is a huge difference between it making perfect sense if and when it does happen and it being a lock to happen now.
By all means, please start naming the QBs who have gone to crappy teams and turned them around. I submit that whatever list you come up with won't have many names on it. And no, the Jets aren't just a QB away from being a good team.
If I'm Mikey Mac I am definitely telling Kelly that if Mariota is available at 6 I'd be open to trading him. I'd even talk about being willing to do it for less than market value. I'd want Kelly to be less motivated to try and jump us. I'd want Chip to think it'd be silly to jump us because it would cost SO much more. Then if Mariota does fall to us I'd flip the script. I'd say - "Listen Chip - my owner is getting involved. He really wants MM and the only way I can sell him on trading MM to you is if you put together a king's ransom of a package". I'd maybe even go so far as to say "We can't even pull the trigger until we see who's available at 20". Then regardless of who's available - claim that we don't like them and use it as an excuse to ask for EVEN MORE.
Oh c'mon. You're not getting three first rounders, that's ridiculous. And on top of that Foles? Asking for that would be obnoxious and it would never happen.
The Redskins traded up from #6 to #2 and gave up 3 first rounders. If you want to go from #20 to #6 for a guy who you think will be a franchise QB, you better pay up big time.
Well say the Eagles land Mariota, through other means, could we pursue a trade with Foles? Only now we'd have no leverage.
Tom Brady turned a bad team whose own coach believed was going to get fired into a Super Bowl champion is the first to come to mind. Drew Brees. Ben Roethlesberger. Andrew Luck. Kurt Warner. But those guys are all HOFers you will try and counter with. Chad Pennington with the Dolphins. Alex Smith with the Chiefs. Nice try but try knowing a little more history. Your argument is that even if the Jets got an elite QB they wouldn't be good. Otherwise you are admitting they are a QB away from being good. Just because YOU can't predict whether Mariotta or any other rookie could be that good doesn't mean they won't be and can't have that impact on the Jets. But the conversation isn't even dependent on it being a rookie QB.
Did you even see Brady play his first and second season as a starter ? He wasn't that good. They were #6 in the league in scoring defense. They were 8th in rushing attempts. Brady most certainly didn't make "a bad team good". They were already a good team. What Brady provided versus Bledsoe is that he didn't fark stuff up and give games away like Drew did. And BTW, Brady sat for an entire season before taking over as the starter during his 2nd season. Ben Roethlisberger was the same way at Pitt. In 2004 when Ben took over as the starter, Dick LeBeau had taken over as D coordinator and the Steelers had the #1 scoring defense. They were #2 in yards rushing and #1 in rushing attempts. Drew Brees started out in San Diego. He rode the bench his first year. He took over as the start in his 2nd season and went 8-8. His third year, he went 2-9. Kurt Warner signed with the Rams in 1998 and was sent over to NFL Europe to hone his craft. When he took over in 99 after Trent Green was injured, the Rams had a healthy Isaac Bruce, Tory Holt and had brought in Marshall Faulk from Indy. Now, you want to take a second look at who should trying knowing a little more history ?? Right now, if Tom Brady or Peyton Manning clones were to magically become the starting QB for the Jets, I don't think even they could lead this team to the playoffs
Problem is, word of that would get out to other teams and the Jets would be screwed in future dealings as teams would have no faith in them.
I doubt it. If Chip is so enamored with MM that he'd allow himself to be manipulated into giving up a king's ransom for him then he'd deserve exactly what he got. What I outlined is something that would likely be applauded by the rest of the league. Most people enjoy when someone who comes off as smarter than everyone else get's humbled.
