If Alex Smith is the name people want to throw out there, then that makes me not want Mariota even more. Here's more on that comparison that in a sense is valid. www.footballoutsiders.com/futures/2015/futures-oregon-qb-marcus-mariota - this goes into more of Mariota's ability to make throws at the NFL level. Alex Smith is not going to win you a SB. We should not try and strive to find a QB of that similar comparison as a franchise QB. That could be his floor and it could also be his ceiling if he doesn't grasp the pro offense. Winston's chances of being a great pro player are far more likely then Mariota. Everything we say is opinionated so criticism is fair on both ends. I just don't think he's as good as you believe him to be. Plenty of other busts in the NFL, doesn't have to be Russell or Leaf - 2 guys with character issues. I personally believe RG3 could be added to this list of QB busts, I don't believe RG3 can run the pro offense. The same questions in regards to Mariota. RG3 if he doesn't make it will be the poster boy of Spread QBs. I don't see a sure thing in Mariota. RG3 very intelligent player, gifted athlete. RG3 has one chance left to prove he's that guy.
Again, you aren't getting it which is understandable. And YOU said Alex Smith. I never said he was Smith's floor or his ceiling--that was the name YOU threw out there. I just don't consider him a bust--I never said he could win a SB. Which would have been irrelevant to the discussion in any event. He's going to be a much better QB than Smith IMHO but you interpret what you want to interpret. Mariota has little to zero chance of busting. _
Actually you said Alex Smith first. Anyway, I don't consider Alex Smith to be special of any kind. That made me attach that article in regards to the comparisons. I'd say if I had to throw a % out there - I would go with 35-40% chance of busting. I think depending on the team he goes to would really decrease that %
Mariota certainly has a chance of busting. He's not a safe pick or a guy with a high floor by any means. He has prototypical size. great athleticism and the intangibles to be successful so he is a good QB prospect but he's definitely got a chance of busting IMO. there are questions about his accuracy/delivery that need to answered, his style translating to the NFL, how he can read defenses or adjust to the rush. He had a lot of awesome weapons in Oregon and they play little D in that conference. It's concerning to a degree. I could foresee a scenario where he gets drafted by a poor team and thrown into the fire right away and hits a lot of rough patches with adjusting to that and the system and in turn, busts. Sorta like - dare I say, Geno Smith. (who i think was a more accurate QB coming in but less of a prospect overall of course) Jstokes I know it's just your opinion but I strongly disagree that Mariota has a little to zero chance of busting and I believe he has a higher bust potential on the field than Winston even. He might have a higher ceiling though, I'll agree he has the highest ceiling in the draft and that's something to consider.
I've never said anything about Winston's on-field potential being lower than Mariota's--I like both players but I personally like Mariota better. And I really don't think Winston will have off-the-field issues, but he does come with that red flag which I can't dismiss. I also think TB won't be able to dismiss it which is why I don't think they'll pass on Mariota. But I truly think Mariota is as safe a pick of a QB as we've seen in a very long while. I am NOT calling him Andrew Luck like 101 continues to think I've said--I just find him to be a completely safe pick. Very high ceiling but a very high floor so the gamble is not that great. _
Both higher probabilities of busting then Mariota that's for sure. Mariota has a lot going for him in regards to good character, football IQ and he appears to hold himself accountable. A huge difference compared to Russell and Smith. History tells me he won't make it but he's got an excellent chance slip through the cracks and be that guy. That's how I view these spread QBs nowadays in general. Kapernick is arrogant, and the more I see him play the more I think he might not make it. Cam seems to be breaking down by the yr and he's not improving his mechanics. I think Mariota's a better passer then both. He still needs work though.
I think we already went down this route. I think you got me all wrong though, I'm not a Mariota-hater. I don't view him like Geno Smith. I mean the kid has talent I can't deny that - I think you just need to recognize the kid has some faults.
Everyone has faults, I know that. The problem is, some of what you call "faults" may not, in fact, BE faults. They may just be due to a lack of opportunity. You've said he can't do something because you've never seen him do it. But is it because he can't physically do it--is completely incapable of doing something? Has no ability to ever do it? Or will it take time? And how much time? Maybe it's only because he wasn't ASKED to do it. For instance, you've said before he can't throw into tight windows. Well, that exhaustive article you posted said he can, in fact, throw into tight windows, but that there just isn't enough of a pool of throws to say whether he can do it consistently. I've seen him throw into tight windows--that blogger has seen him throw into tight windows. Obviously he CAN do it. How consistently is the question. But the ability is there--it's not as if he is physically incapable of ever doing it. You put too much emphasis on how quickly someone can do something while I only care that they can excel at it in a reasonable amount of time. I want Mariota, Winston, Cook, Petty, Goff, Hundley, Grayson, whomever no where near the field year 1 (in must win situations)--it does not matter to me. If you were to give me a QB out of the QB factory to develop into my franchise QB, I would want one designed just like Mariota. Has every tool you can ask for including the high football IQ and the work ethic. _
Except CK sucks. Hes way overrated. Mariota has a high success ceiling and ahigh bust level floor. Ive seen his tape, its boom or bust with him. Im not sure one way or the other. I do know he isn't nfl ready as is and could take more than a few years to get there. Edit: btw im not suggesting we dont take him. This is a weak draft period so its not a bad move to take him.
Tight Windows argument: I have not seen him exhibit this ability from game to game. Winston has shown this ability several times in each game. I've seen Mariota miss on those throws as well, more than you would like to see out of that offense. The blogger compared him to Alex Smith, not exactly a QB who makes throws in tight windows. Even so, tight windows - just one of the issues. I put a HIGH emphasis on the fundamentals. If you know the basics now, we can work on what makes you a success at the NFL level and go from there. We don't know how much time it will require, or if Mariota will get it. The thing is, no Spread QB has grasped the pro offense. Not Kaep, not Cam, certainly not his counter-part RG3. History is against Mariota wherever you like it or not. What makes you believe he will make it is that he's a nice kid, has good football IQ. So did RG3 though. I personally think the Jets are better off w/someone that has proven they can win in the pocket. I don't want that to be foreign with my QB.
Kaepernick isn't very good, but you can still win with him and ultimately that's what matters. The Niners were literally five to seven yards away from winning a sb... as much as I love Harbaugh as a head coach, he didn't do a good job of developing Kaepernick. Instead of utlizing his legs and allowing Kaepernick to play in a Hybrid spread offense, Harbaugh and Roman forced WCO principles down his throat. Developing a QB is a process. .. you can't take short cuts.
What's the difference between a meal that won't likely taste like shit but isn't going to be the best meal you ever had? In no way is saying he isnt going to suck comparable to saying he is going to be great. You are arguing either a QB sucks or he is great, there is no middle, if you are saying there is no difference in those two.
First of all, this wasn't a discussion about Mariota versus Winston--that Winston makes more throws into tight windows is irrelevant, Mariota can and has absolutely shown the ability--more so that your boy Connor Cook who is woefully inaccurate and doesn't just miss tight windows--he misses wide open guys. You just choose not to acknowledge what Mariota does. But yes, once again, it gets back to your tired old argument--you want an inferior talent that's taken a few snaps from under center and has somewhat mastered the 3-5-7 step drop (when he's not tripping on himself) over a superior talent that hasn't been asked to do something because you want him ready day one (when we've all acknowledged that no rookie QB should be playing day 1). You'd feel better with an inferior talent that has proven he can win from the pocket in college against 20 year olds, a guy who may be limited in the pros rather than the more talented player with the higher ceiling. Got it. _
I agree you cant and thats why, Im not saying dont draft him. If he becomes Pennington 2.0 is that a terrible thing? Not really, hed juat have to put the work in to improve arm strength.
