That's a $30M investment in the 2017 collapse. Only this time we probably don't get 2009 and 2010 out of it. Signing 27 and 28 year old free agents only buys you a couple of years. Then they're going 30/31 and for most of them the thing is about over. It's not a good idea even when you already have the QB in place but it's a really bad idea when the QB position is in flux. The Jets tried to get around this basic reality by trading for Brett Favre when they went all in last time. Then they had to draft his replacement and just as the replacement was getting his feet on the ground all the talent around him went bye bye. Then the replacement went bye bye.
If they get Foles in a draft day deal then no reason to trade for a vet Qb. You'd have one of the better ones. I think Foles is on the final year of his rookie contract.
That wasnt the reason the Jets collapsed. Poor drafting, low number of draft picks, and poorly structured contracts was.
i didn't mention anything about age or salary of the players to sign. obviously i'm not advocating giving 10 different guys over the age of 30 a significant long term contract. just saying you cannot go into the draft without depth assembled at all positions. need to keep as flexible as possible towards BPA, and even then, cannot assume they will be your day 1 starters. in terms of 27 or 28 year olds, all teams need a mix of veteran and youth. the football cycle is very short in the NFL, and most decisions are 3 year decisions. As long as you don't lock up too much in guarantees, you can move on from a player in even less time than that.
Assembling depth at all positions is in the eye of the beholder. The Jets had like 9 CB's last year when they drafted Dexter McDougle. The cost of having the kind of depth you want would have been at least a 5 year deal for $35M. That's what DRC got from the Giants on the way to their illustrious season.
Alan Faneca got old and foot slow in pass protection so he was replaced after 2009. Thomas Jones moved on that year as well. Lito Sheppard was 1 year and out. Damien Woody and Tony Richardson retired after 2010. Braylon Edwards hit free agency and it hit him back. LaDainian Tomlinson and Jim Leonhard left after 2011. Those were all key players traded for or acquired in free agency who dropped out one after the other as the window closed. Then you had the natural injury factor with people like Jerricho Cotchery, Dustin Keller, Santonio Holmes and Darrelle Revis losing significant games. You had the natural retirement cycle for long-term mainstays like Shaun Ellis, Bryan Thomas and Brandon Moore. When you import a lot of veteran talent in the NFL you'd better win the year that you do it because otherwise you are just building sandcastles on the beach with the tide due to come in any minute.
I tend to agree on both counts. But my point about the vet Qb in FA has been more about seeking the optimal arrangement, imo, of both a vet Qb and going Qb in the draft. But in fact only going Qb in the draft is not a realistic option, at least this year, if one buys the notion (as I tend to) that there really are no good candidates for success beyond Winston and Mariota. They might both be gone.
let me clarify what I'm saying by giving some examples.. going into the 2013 season, we had very little money to work with. but you still need to fill out a roster.. signings like Landry and Colon were cheap, effective, and could fill in as starters for a couple years if we needed it (and we did). Barnes was also a good signing, but he got hurt, and we were able to move on from him w/o much of a financial hit. We need options like above, as well as some well placed higher impact signings that our current salary cap situation can afford. for instance, if we cannot come to terms with Harris, do we enter the draft with a gaping hole at ILB, hoping we can find a plug and play starter on day 1? If we do, does that come at the sacrifice of drafting good players at other positions of need? The answer is no. We sign an ILB in FA. Doesn't have to be the best ILB available, as we'll have to balance who is available versus all of our other FA needs. But we do sign some sort of option in advance of the draft.
In fact the failure of the strategy of trading up to pick Sanchez caused the Jets more harm than the net effect of all those developments. Add in failed picks for Kyle Wilson, Hill, Ducasse, and SMith, perhaps Milliner and even Coples, and the FA moves pale by comparison. And for good measure, letting players go like Revis and Cromartie have had a huge negative effect.
Anohter factor is that the collective bargaining agreement in effect will work to require the Jets to be active in FA this off season.It;s not like it's a real choice to "only" develop through the draft. Key pieces, like CB, will likely be addressed in FA.
Maybe the Jets should go into the draft with a gaping hole at ILB and prioritize drafting somebody in the first 3 rounds to fill it. The problem with filling the gap with a serviceable player is that then you stand pat with that guy or get another fill-in the next year for the same reason. The Jets haven't drafted a FS in the top 3 rounds in a long time. Not surprisingly we're filling that position with somebody new almost every year now. We had a 4th round pick in Kerry Rhodes but we let him go because he wasn't Ed Reed and since then it's been all 2 year FA's or failed drafts at the position. Pryor should never have been put at FS as a rookie. That's not the position you break in a young guy at if you have any questions about his adaptation to the NFL. SS is the position you put an instinctive hitter at.
your bolded statement is flat out the wrong approach to drafting. it completely contradicts drafting BPA in the early rounds. however, i will say this. if the FO really likes the pool of talent at a position like ILB in the draft, then you probably sign more of a stop gap ILB in FA, rather than an expensive long term answer to the position. signing a stop gap veteran should never prohibit a team from drafting a potential long term answer at a position, and nothing was stopping us from drafting a FS in recents drafts.
i agree. the fact that our QB need is very high, and the draft pool for QBs is subpar, it makes signing a veteran QB even more important. whoever we sign will have a high likelihood of being our starter this season.
I do not think anyone has a one year plan to fix this team and win the Superbowl next year. As we have not traded any of them away we have all of our draft picks in 2016 and 2017. We also have access to free agent quarterbacks in 2016 and 2017 in exchange for our cap space. As long as we fill holes, save some cap room, and show improvement next year it is OK if we have just another guy at QB until next year. We absolutely need to bring in a free agent because we can't be afraid to pull Geno out of the game if he has already thrown four interceptions because we do not have any confidence in his backup. That is an experience no Jet fan should ever suffer through ever again. Drafting a QB of the future would be nice but the talent pool is weak and we should not reach. If the value isn't right take a player at another position.
This draft is filthy with running backs and linebackers. I just hope we take what the draft gives us and come away with at least one of each.
I'd take him. He's light years better than Mark or Geno. But I'd select Mariota over handing him over to Philly. Nick really had a good year in '13. And made the Pro Bowl.