http://www.nj.com/jets/index.ssf/2015/01/the_jets_might_not_be_as_far_from_becoming_a_super.html Why the Jets might not be as far from a Super Bowl contender as you would think By Darryl Slater | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com Follow on Twitter on January 26, 2015 at 12:20 PM, updated January 26, 2015 at 12:29 PM According to an article by Darryl Slater, Pro Football Focus and ESPN came up with a metric or graphic that they think could determine how far teams are from competing for the Super Bowl. I tried to paste the article below, but couldn't get it to work. The gist of the article is that on the 28 teams that played in the conference championship games from 2007-2013, on average, 40% of their players were good or elite players. According to PFF, the Jets are only 8 above-average players away from being contenders for the Super Bowl. That would rank the Jets as 14th best in the NFL out of 30 teams (the SB teams were not included). The top 5 teams according to PFF are the Cowboys, Ravens, Broncos, Packers and Eagles. According to PFF, the Jets have two elite players, Sheldon Richardson and Nick Mangold; four good players, Muhammad Wilkerson, Dawan Landry, Jason Babin and Damon Harrison (Snacks); 19 average players, and eight bad players. Those eight bad players are Antonio Allen, Brian Winters, Chris Johnson, Willie Colon, Geno Smith, Michael Vick, David Nelson and Jeff Cumberland. PFF seems to see "good" and "above average" as being one and the same. I disagree that Allen and Nelson, and perhaps Cumberland are "bad" players. I think they're average, but guess that doesn't matter since they aren't "above average" or "good." But for argument's sake, let's accept their ratings. I think there are several questions here. One, do you agree that the Jets are only 8 above-average players away from SB contenders? One one hand, that number seems low, but then OTOH, it's not that easy to get those 8 additional players, and other teams are improving at the same time. Of those eight bad players, five were starters at least for part of the season (Winters, Colon, Geno, Allen and Nelson) and three were backups (CJ, Cumby and Vick). In that scenario, Nelson is already gone, and Chris Johnson and Michael Vick are as good as gone. In all likelihood, Willie Colon and even Brian Winters may be gone. It's hard to say about Cumberland, but with his cap hit, it's not too hard to imagine his being released. Hopefully, Allen and Geno Smith, and maybe Winters and/or Cumberland (if they remain on the roster) will improve under the new CS from bad to at least average. For argument's sake, let's say that entering FA and the draft that Nelson, CJ, Vick, Colon and Cumby are off the team, and that Allen, Geno and Winters remain. Two, if you agree with question #1 and Nelson, CJ, Vick, Colon and Cumby are off the team prior to FA & the draft, do you think that between FA, the draft and the work of the CS to develop players, the Jets can become contenders this season even if Geno is still the starting QB? Three, if Matt Moore or Shaun Hill is the starting QB and the team is able to significantly address/upgrade the OL, FS, CB, WR and OLB positions between FA and the draft, do you think the Jets could be SB contenders in 2015? Four, if you don't think the Jets are only 8 above average players away from being SB contenders and won't be SB contenders in 2015 regardless of what moves they make, how long do you think it will take for them to become contenders? What do you think?
I read that article, and imo the Jets are probably even less than 8 players away by their metric. For example the article points out how Cumberland is a bad player, but of course Amaro is rather promising, and it's not like they need to use a high draft pick at TE. They also listed both Vick and Smith. One good qb instead would solve that problem, although concededly my preferred approach IF the Jets go rookie Qb in the draft is to also get a vet Qb. And also obviously Nelson has already been cut. Whether to retain Harvin is a key question, but technically that was addreessed, even if not solidly on a going forward basis. And finally they list Johnson, who imo was more a disappointment than a truly bad player. But again it's not like the Jets are really hurting at Rb with Ivory and Powell. SO add it up - a new Qb, OG to replace Colon, hopefully Aboushi and Winters can cover the other, probably two cb's needed, and an OLB. That's really only five players. But... then I also think Harris is likely to be gone, and we cant count on retaining Harvin.
We are one player away from contending for a SB. Unfortunately that one player is a great QB which isn't very easy to find.
Those two could very well be gone, but neither was considered a good player by PFF, so that doesn't really impact the numbers. I want the Jets to add a vet FA QB as well, but who knows if PFF would consider that QB to be "good" or only "average." Similarly, the new OG may play at a better level than Colon and with fewer penalties, but that doesn't mean that he would be a "good" player according to PFF. It's all very subjective.
some inconsistencies with how they are grading good, avg, and bad.. for instance, Breno was the 51st ranked T (with a -6.5 grade), but yet didn't fall into the bad ranking? RT was a bigger problem than RG. Also Walls had the same grade as Allen, but only Allen falls into the bad category? Adams and Williams also had very similar grades, but didn't get grouped with Allen either. Kyle Wilson was the worst of the bunch by far in rankings, and also didn't appear on the 'bad ' list, possibly because he was a 50% snap guy. The problem to me was primarily QB, all 3 CB spots, and RT. Five very important positions. If we vastly upgrade all 5, without losing too many of last years starters, we'd be a good team. but there is no way we vastly upgrade all those spots quickly, and new holes are about to open up on the roster. we will not be a good team in 2015 imo.
Realistically every team in the league is 1 player away from SB contention. But that player plays the hardest position to find greatness at.
The Jets are a QB, a FS, a G and maybe a WR away from being a contender. They wouldn't be a topflight contender with just those adds unless the QB and FS were very good.
Excellent points. Of course, it will depend upon whom the starting QB is and the moves we make in FA and the draft, but how many games do you see the team winning at this point? I believe the team will be more disciplined and won't beat itself with penalties, sloppy play, clock mismanagement and the like. I believe that a veteran FA QB will be signed. I also believe that TOs will not be tolerated, so even if Geno wins the starting job, if he turns the ball over at the same rate that he has for most of his career, he won't start for long. I think those factors alone will make the team better. How much better remains to be seen, but unless Bowles and his CS are completely incompetent and Mac screws the pooch on the draft, I can't see the team winning less than 7-8 games, and depending upon the QB play, think they could possibly win as many as 9 or 10. I think Bowles could take the exact same team Rex had and win at least 6-7 games.
If the Jets had a "good" QB, another receiver of Decker's caliber or close to it, a good guard, two good CBs, and a good pass rusher- yeah, suddenly they'd be a top tier contending team. That's only 6 players, but it'd transform the team completely. It's not so easy to do that, especially not in a short time frame. Lose Harvin. Get a solid free agent WR who has less of an injury history. Lose Chris Johnson and bring in CJ Spiller or a mid-round rookie. Lose Colon and bring in Iowa or whatever that guy's name is. Sign the best available CB for Bowels's defense, and bring in Cromartie on a short term deal. Then have Milliner, McDougle, and the others compete and be there for depth. I'd probably keep Babin for one more year. Get the best available free agent QB. He's not going to be anyone good or special, but he'll be more consistent than Smith. Maybe trade a late round pick for Mike Glennon. Or get Jake Locker, or Ryan Fitzpatrick. Keep Smith as a backup. Should have enough cap space to do the above moves, and then if we can land a couple of good players in the draft we should be quite improved from last year, especially with a much easier schedule. What it comes down to is that we'll need 2 or 3 good offseasons in a row before we can be contenders again. Also at some point we do need to find at least a reasonable QB if we want a chance to win the SB.
well it starts at the QB position of course. Smith and Vick were both bottom 5 QB's amongst anyone who took a snap this season. Vick actually graded even worse than Geno. I'm sorry, but that is not on the coaches imo. the biggest decision for Maccagnan, in terms of 2015 W/L impact, is the veteran QB decision. We went to the pen a few times last season when Geno was turning it over, and it made no difference. Vick was just as bad. So if Maccagnan puts Bowles and Gailey in the same position as last years coaches, with no good alternative option at QB, i don't see this team winning much at all. its a softer schedule and we will probably upgrade at CB, so maybe a win or two more, but it won't be pretty w/o a better QB option. There is a chance Geno could grow, we just can't bank on that.
By [players] Yeah, they are about 8 or less away. But if you consider that QB is more than 50% of the offense, yeah. Jets still have a VERY LONG WAY to go. P.S. Prudent approach here would be getting a vet to start for the next 2-3 years, and draft a QB every year till they see something.
Landry had a very good year. Graded out 9th out of 87 Safeties having played at least 25% of overall snaps. he's very underrated on this board. Wilk normally would be in the excellent category, i'd agree. But he was plagued by some injuries, missed some time, and wasn't quite as dominant as he was the last two years. the odd man out to me really is Babin. He was more of a situational player, on the field much less than the guys he's being compared to. also, they broke out 3-4 OLB from 4-3 OLB, so a much smaller player pool to be compared against. i wouldn't put him in the same productivity level as Landry, and certainly not the same as Wilk. overall i feel PFF does a pretty good job, but there are some flaws in this analysis as well.
I thought Aboushi played quite well, considering his lack of experience. I would expect him to be considerably better next year with most of this year and another training camp under his belt. I have high hopes for Dozier as well. I think we need to lock up one starting guard, and let them, and even Winters, compete for the other.
You might be right on that but the Jets are so strong inside and with enough pressure there that a pass rushing OLB is a nice addition but not absolutely necessary like the first 3 positions I mentioned. WR and OLB are both questionable at this point.
