Yes, this is a classic case of Madden Football Syndrome in the NFL. The Falcons went out and got the one piece they thought they needed, but it wasn't making a move for a QB and so it failed due to the normal wear and tear of the NFL on any roster.
Why has Winston thrown 17 picks this year? The Jets need to be able to answer that question before they even consider drafting him.
I agree 100 percent not only do I think Winston would fail on the field but off the field he would be horrible. Maybe he could fit in somewhere like Tampa but I see no way he works out in NY.
He's got Rashard Greene and Nick O'Leary 2 good players that aren't first round picks at the receiver position, then you have a Winston throwing to a bunch of freshman receivers. Sure that plays a role. He's gambled a lot this season. Jets need to do their homework like they've never done before if they decide to get Winston.
I did not write this, but it has improved my opinion of Winston considerably from when I first started evaluating Winston vs. Mariota, etc. Take it or leave it. " Full disclosure: I am an FSU season ticket holder. This may cause my analysis to be biased, but it also gives me closer and more detailed observation of Jameis. This is for entertainment purposes, so don't take it too seriously if you disagree. I am asking that those of you who read this try to set aside any feelings you have for Winston as a person, if only for a moment. In 2013 Jameis Winston, as a freshman, posted arguably one of the best seasons ever seen from a Pro-Style "power conference" college QB (14 Games): 290 yards per game (4057 total) 66.9% Completion Rate 10.6 YPA, 3.1 Total TDs per game (40 Pass/4 Rush) 0.7 interceptions per game (10 total) I would like to take a deeper look at this year's marked dropoff in those statistics (12 Games): 297 yards per game (3559 total) 65.4% completion rate 8.4 YPA, 2.3 Total TDs per game (24 Pass/3 Rush) 1.4 interceptions per game (17 total) The most alarming of these are (a.) the doubling of his per-game interception rate, and (b.) the 20% reduction in yards per attempt. Let's look further. It is my opinion (take-it-or-leave-it) that 2013 was non-reproducible. Among "Power-Conference" QBs, Winston was #1 in TDs #5 in yards #1 in YPA Literally anything he did this year would have been a dropoff. And it was. That said, when viewed in a bubble, Winston's 2014 season has actually been very solid: #13 in TDs #5 in yards #13 in YPA In 2013, Winston worked with: Arguably the best offensive line in college football A highly productive senior RB A WR corps of three seniors (one of whom was a first-round NFL pick), and one junior. In 2014, Winston worked with: An OL that has been sieve-like at times, ranked just 59th in the FBS (out of 128 teams) in sacks allowed A non-existent running game for most of the year due to the OL incompetence, plus the staff's insistence on playing an ineffective converted safety (Karlos Williams) at RB (FSU's running game has found life in the past 2-3 games since starting freshman RB Dalvin Cook) This has resulted in opponents not respecting the run, and FSU having to be one-dimensional on offense this season: Winston has 10% more pass attempts this year in two fewer games. A WR corps consisting of one senior and three freshmen The only FSU offensive player projected to be a first-round draft pick, is Jameis Winston himself. His best targets are Nick O'Leary (#3 TE prospect) and Rashad Greene (#7 WR). As I said, neither are first round NFL talent. I am saying this to make it clear that when FSU's offense has taken the field this year, they quite often have not been the more talented squad. Many find this hard to believe, considering the perception of FSU having a soft schedule the past two years. This year, however, FSU faced 5 of the top 15 defenses in college football, and 7 of the top 30. Total Defensive Rankings of FSU Opponents #1. Clemson #6. Louisville #9. Florida #12. Boston College #14. Miami #27. Syracuse #30. Virginia 7 of his 17 interceptions were against two top 10 defenses, Louisville and Florida. The only bottom-half defenses FSU faced were Oklahoma State and Notre Dame. It is certainly a concern that his interception total was so high against the top-10 defenses he faced. I believe, however, that his dropoff is easily explainable: (a.) lack of protection, (b.) 2/3 or 3/4 of his receivers on any given play are freshmen in 2014, whereas all four were juniors and seniors in 2013, and (c.) regression to the mean. But the naysayers could be right; it could be indicative of something else and he could be a bust. You just never know. I think people's opinion of Jameis Winston is colored by the their distaste for him because of the character issues. I certainly don't think anybody (including FSU fans) look at him objectively. Let's be clear about one last thing regarding character issues: He's made a lot of unquestionably and indefensibly foolish decisions off the field. It could hurt him, but I don't think it'll hurt him as much as it should, or as much as people think. NFL teams have risked very high picks on players with less talent than Winston, with much worse proven (criminal) character issues than Winston. In a league where Ray Lewis (charged with double murder, pled down to obstruction of justice for interfering with a murder investigation) is revered as a saint, Jameis Winston's transgressions shouldn't logically turn many heads."
That's a good read, thanks for putting it up there. Two things related to it. One is that basically the guy is saying that Winston was very young and had a great season as a freshman anyway. A truly historic season by almost any measure. He had a lot of help in doing it but he did it and that's what counts. The second is that he thinks the reduction in talent around Winston and the great college defenses that he faced this year contributed heavily to what is perceived as a much worse sophomore season, although it may not be that much worse due to those factors. On the first I'm with him. What Winston did last year was truly amazing and it is possible that only a great player could have done that. If that's the case then Winston is obviously the best prospect in this draft ahead of us and the best overall since Andrew Luck in 2012. The Jets have to take him if he's available on their pick. On the second I'm really hesitant. The best college defense would be a bottom 3 defense in the pros. If Winston struggled because he faced elite college defenses then the natural question has to be what will happen when he faces much better elite NFL defenses? What will happen when he faces average NFL defenses? Looking at Johnny Manziel struggle right now is a reminder that great QB play at the NCAA level doesn't mean much at the NFL level. Tebow had the same reality dawn in his first extended play at the NFL level and never recovered from that. Here's my specific concern on Winston. Is he a mechanically sound QB at this point? Is he a guy who just throws the ball and gets it to his target most of the time against the equivalent of mediocre to poor NFL defenders or is he a guy who has it down? If he's not mechanically sound then that explains the interceptions better than anything else. That and the "great" college defenses he's played against this year. I think the Jets have to do an analysis of Winston readiness to play at the NFL level before they take him. If he's got significant things that have to change before he'll be a good QB then he's a major risk on a top 5 draft pick. If they think he just has to learn a new system then he's probably ok there. He should most likely sit no matter what his readiness but if he's a two year project coming in the door, well that's not worth a top 5 pick by any stretch.
Good post. My $.02: - I won't go back and find it, but I actually said well before the draft, one of my main concerns about Sanchez was his team was so good and he didn't have to do as much to find an open receiver, fit a throw in a tight spot, go through is reads. I thought he'd struggle at the NFL level. It comes off as Monday morning QB'ing but true nonetheless. -I'd actually say Winston is more fundamentally sound then Mariota as a thrower. He's a more prototypical QB in the pocket and has shown enough arm strength & accuracy to be successful. -I think the off the field stuff while a concern, is overblown at this point. I think with social media & the perception of FSU contribute to it getting piled on. -All that said, I'd rather him get picked before our pick so the decision is made for us. Facing good defenses or not, regardless of the level of talent around him, he makes a lot of mistakes. He's still VERY young, and the current NFL climate does not favor patience with QB's. I think you'd wind up with another scenario of him playing earlier than he should, struggling and then all the issues snowballing.
Exactly. In 2013, Winston didn't have to deal with freshman receivers. A lot of his picks this season have been because of mis-communication, and him trying to do too much.
Winston may not have Kelvin Benjamin anymore but he damn sure isn't throwing to any bums. Let's not get carried away, Greene and O'Leary are very good players and the freshman like Rudolph have bright futures. In addition to that it's not like the ACC is very good. The head to head matchup will tell a lot and the winner will have a great chance to showcase their ability against a Bama defense.
i wouldn't take Winston anywhere in the first round, let alone in the top 5. you can't have that many character flaws at the most important position in sports, and still be taken in the top 5. that type of move will set a team back for many years, and could spell the beginning of the end for our new GM and HC before they even really begin. we're desperate, but i'd still pass on Winston.
I don't know everything about Winston, but assuming the Jets do their due diligence and find out as much as possible about Winston and his past off-the-field incidents, I feel like they may just find one big character flaw: immaturity. With the exception of the sexual misconduct (which every team needs to look into if Winston is to be drafted at all, much less top 5), every incident surrounding Winston seems to be some combination of immaturity and overblown media coverage. Everything from drinking soda from ketchup cups to yelling an internet meme in the student union. I may be very wrong, but many of these character flaws could come from a single issue: immaturity (combined with a potential lack of self-awareness.). If this is the case, given that Winston is in fact a junior in high school and isn't even 21 yet, immaturity may not be the worst character flaw in the world. Just look at Brett Favre in college or even Peyton Manning --> http://thebiglead.com/2014/09/18/peyton-manning-1996-tennessee-lawsuit-trainer-bare-butt-mooning/
I'm not sure how much you have to look into Winston. It's already known how the media treats him at FSU I couldn't even imagine in NY. I selfishly wanted Johnny in NY because I thought he could ride the media creating Broadway Joe II but Winston would get destroyed.
http://mmqb.si.com/2014/12/23/jameis-winston-nfl-prospect-florida-state/ Great article. Particularly like the section highlighting his immense football IQ and ability to read complicated coverages. "These are the types of interactions that NFL scouts watch intently when evaluating quarterbacks, for whom intangibles such as leadership and attitude are integral to success (ahem, Jay Cutler). Winston’s rah-rah innocence of 2013 has given way to a diva-type petulance that has gone unchecked by Fisher, Florida State, the ACC and the NCAA."
I can completely buy not drafting him either because of his Qb play or because of his character, but I don't understand not drafting him because of his reaction to our media. Winston is a charismatic guy who clearly is not phased by national, vehemently negative media attention. NY media will be worse but I don't see any reason to believe that the media will break him or even phase him. If he fails it will either be because of football or because of character flaws unrelated to the media.
Like I said I don't want him because of his on field and off the field play. In addition, he won't have Jimbo Fisher literally holding his hand and telling him what to say in interviews, he would be destroyed by the NY media because of his poor decisions on and off the field. It's best he goes somewhere like the Titans.
I am struggling with the whole Winston risk and reward equation. Is tough enough to make it as a player, but nearly impossible to make it if off the field issues, well, will keep you off the field of play. Our scouts better get this one right. The one thing I don't give a shit about is his relationship to the NY media. Those bottom feeders have vilified many a good man, when things are bad, but conversely, as long as you win, you can be an absolute cheating, lying, rooten bastard and they will kiss your ass forever more. Enter BB.
The Jets need some common sense in the free agency and draft. We could be a much better team with some simple moves. In free agency go get some CB and a LB. In the daft get the WR-Amari Cooper from Alabama in the first round. In the second round get the QB- Brent Hundley from UCLA. Then pick OL men in all the other rounds. I believe this would make us a much better team.
and the Jets pick #6, pretty much kills any QB pick up in the first round, barring an ill advised trade up.
