Jay I took a look at the site,,,waiting to see your update ,,,,is the picture that you put up of the snowmap the latest computer run or is that IF this moves 50 mies out to sea ?
Thats the latest run CBG...talk about a close call. The problem the models have is that storm while stalling..will be wobbling 30 miles here..20 miles there..and so will the rain snow line. If you were to put a gun to my head for your area..and my areas..heres what I would say (first I would ask if you have real bullets in the gun) I would say mix on Monday night....heavy rain all day Tuesday and they Tuesday night and Wednesday morning I believe the models are like huh? Thats when you can get heavy snow in our area. Thats when the storm starts to do the loop da loop. I will post this same note on my site.
Jay I hear you,,,,my question is do you still look at the next euro at this point or as this event gets closer do you look at the short term models because they start to lock in and do better ? Is this going to come down to now casting ? do you think you can get some kind of idea of how this thing will setup or is that going to be impossible ?
Well I'll probably be heading back in the next year (fucking Japanese women to me are like kryptonite to Superman) so I will hope it's a tad warmer. I'm getting ready for Ruby to hit likely tomorrow sometime, they are expecting 50 MPH winds and heavy thunderstorms. They say it may take a day or 2 to pass over but I think things will be ok. The wind has been blowing for about a day and half here but it's actually been a nice breeze as opposed to a nuisance.
Be safe there man. And once you have time, start a thread and share your experience in Far East. I am sure it will be an interesting read.
Yeah I should, people here aren't too worried about the storm, it's been drizzling all day but nothing serious. I'm off to taipei 3 days after Christmas so that will be another knew experience. I've been there 4 times but living there....all new experience. I really like it and I'll be close enough to see this for New Years Eve
Sorry CBG...caught up on some sleep last night!! Will need it...updated site just now and will update almost every hour until midnight tonite. I really think the models will struggle with the temp profiles. Just so we understand..temp profiles are the temps from ground level to way up high baby. They determine rain at the surface...sleet just above the surface...freezing rain just above the surface...and snow a bit higher up. You will hear things like the 850 temps look good for snow..etc. Because of this, the temps being suggested with this storm by the models CANT BE RIGHT. Now that can work 2 ways..it could be even more rain..or of course more frozen. I believe it will be more frozen for inland areas...which I mentioned in the write up. Will update after all the model runs.
Just updated site...some interesting stuff going on...will need to watch the next 12 hours to see how this thing shakes out.
hey jay, kinda checked out. but now have people saying they are hearing some decent snow totals up here. anything to this?
Yeah FJF..its been a concern now for 24 hours. I really think in marginal areas like yours...the frozen precip will win the day. That doesnt mean there will not be a changeover to rain..but it will be short lived. Nor does it mean it will be all snow...I just think your area is modeled and forecasted wrong..and that snow/sleet and maybe even freezing rain will be the winner..and a real nightmare. Have thought all along that the temps would be the last thing the models get right. I could be wrong but as we get closer....Im doubting it. I would be careful in your area bud.
I just missed the local forecast, wife watched it and said ch 2 ,Lonnie quinn was not on board and was calling for rain,,,,,we shall see,, In jay we trust !
No idea c. Everything to me says rain. But it was 5-6 degrees colder today than the forcast. So, maybe its more wintry than mix going in to tomorrow. But i don't think we get snow accumulations at of this at all
Local girl ch 5 agrees with you FJF she say snow and sleet Way north n west of the city and I see that rock land is currently not under any advisories,,,we will see what Jay says soon enough
I checked the Weather Channel's website last night around midnight. They said rain Monday night. They forgot to mention the snow during the morning. What a bunch of jerks.
Well he is right CBG...he is totally on for the city. Areas well west and north could have an ice nightmare in the morning....and then tomorrow night it could change back over earlier then thought..bringing some areas heavy snow and sleet...but in the city? An insane wind driven rain storm is dead on.
Their local stuff is made of nightmares...all computer generated and if you live in lets say Paterson NJ..you get the same forecast for lets say Franklin Lakes...while only 10 miles away...its a HUGE difference.
FJF is right on the border....my guess for his area would be a horrible morning commute filled with ice and sleet...and heavy rain during the day that may transition over to frozen earlier then expected...making tomorrow night a rough night up there. For you CBG..again..could be an early ice situation..followed by heavy rain...heavy winds...and then we watch the radar to see how far south the rain/frozen precip dives down.
