http://grantland.com/the-triangle/new-york-jets-running-backs/ Over the past week, Jets general manager John Idzik has come under fire for perceived slights with his work building the 2014 team. A New York Daily News article by Jets beat writer Manish Mehta on Saturdaywas followed by an embarrassing 31-0 loss in San Diego. Quarterback Geno Smith, Idzik’s second-round pick from the 2013 draft, played dismally before being benched, with postgame reports revealing that Smith had missed a team meeting Saturday. All in all, it was a pretty rough weekend for Idzik. While I won’t pretend the Jets looked remotely competent during their loss to the Chargers, I can’t agree that Idzik has made a mess of running his football team during his two-year tenure. There have been missteps, just as there are with any general manager, but Idzik has executed a clear plan that makes a lot of sense. Criticisms of his performance miss the logic behind a number of Idzik’s decisions. Take, for example, the idea that Idzik is somehow frugally holding on to his cap space while Jets fans shell out for some of the most expensive tickets in the league. This isn’t late-’90s baseball. There’s absolutely no relationship between in-stadium ticket prices and team spending; every team in the NFL has more than enough money to spend beyond the salary cap, by virtue of the league’s massive national television contract. The economics of one simply have nothing to do with the other. The Jets charge a ton for tickets because they think the market will give them a ton for tickets. Gang Green has just less than $24 million in cap space, the second-largest figure in football behind the Jaguars ($29 million). It’s natural to think in the short term that the Jets would be better if they had committed that $24 million to players in free agency this offseason, but that ignores two simple concepts. One is the idea of cap rollover — namely, if the Jets don’t spend that $24 million this year, they can roll it over to create more space on next year’s cap. They weren’t able to do that this offseason, having carried over just $1.5 million in cap space from 2013, which was below the league median of $2.3 million. While the NFL salary cap next year is estimated to be about $140 million, the Jets will get to spend up to $164 million. Second is the concept of opportunity cost. Spending that money on players now means you’re unable to carry that money over to the future, when you may very well have better (or more expensive) talent available to pursue. It also takes away roster spots from young players who come through the draft, which is where you’re always going to find the most surplus value to build the most sustainable, effective football team. Look at Idzik’s past and you can see whom he’s emulating. Idzik came from Seattle, where the general manager is John Schneider, who comes from the Ted Thompson tree of managers. Thompson-style general managers hoard draft picks, maintain cap flexibility, and generally avoid the middle class of free agency, only occasionally jumping into the water for a big splash. In fact, the only real missteps Schneider has made during his time at the helm in Seattle have come in free agency, as big deals for players like Matt Flynn, Sidney Rice, and Zach Miller have produced disappointing results, while short-term deals for Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril were wildly successful. With that surely in mind, Idzik’s philosophy in free agency has been mostly to stick with short-term, low-risk contracts. He went deep for wideout Eric Decker, filling what even Idzik critics would agree was a massive hole by getting the best free agent available at the position with a five-year, $36.25 million deal. Also, offensive lineman Breno Giacomini signed a four-year, $18 million contract. Otherwise, contracts for veterans like Chris Johnson, Jason Babin, and Michael Vick have all been relatively short, cheap, or both. That’s not Idzik trying to pinch pennies. It’s Idzik emulating the success of the Seahawks, the Packers, and (although Jets fans might not want to hear it) the Patriots. Bad teams spend to the cap for the sake of spending money. Idzik had to operate in the low-cost free-agent market because there was very little left in the cupboard when he took over. This was the depth chart in January 2013, shortly before Idzik joined the Jets. It features, by my count, just 17 players who are still on the Jets roster, and most of the departed are veterans who are either done playing football or disappointing on somebody else’s roster. Should Idzik have used the cap space he had to re-sign the likes of Shonn Greene, Austin Howard, or LaRon Landry, who each got ponderously large deals elsewhere? It’s fair to say many of the short-term stopgaps haven’t paid out, and some have embarrassed the team. Mehta cites the off-field issues of players like Kellen Winslow Jr. and Mike Goodson as evidence it was a mistake to sign them, while cornerback Dimitri Patterson bizarrely signed before the 2014 season and had to be released, leaving the Jets perilously thin. Mehta treats David Garrard as a “notable acquisition,” which is odd for a quarterback who was signed to a one-year deal for the league minimum. In virtually all these cases, Idzik was throwing a short-term solution at the wall and hoping it stuck. Better Vick at $2 million for one year than, say, Josh McCown at two years and $10 million. Given where the Jets are, that’s not a stupid idea. As I wrote about inthe team’s preseason preview, previous general manager Mike Tannenbaum frequently traded up in drafts and used draft picks to acquire veterans, leaving the Jets with virtually nothing on their current roster from their 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 drafts. Idzik surely wants to replace those absent holes with draftees, but it takes time to acquire those picks and develop those players. And it’s hard to say that Idzik has been a subpar drafter. His first selection in 2013, cornerback Dee Milliner, struggled in much the same way most rookie cornerbacks do before suffering a high ankle sprain that has kept him out for virtually all of the 2014 campaign.1Idzik’s other first-rounder, Sheldon Richardson, won defensive rookie of the year. Brian Winters, the team’s third-round pick, has been disappointing at guard. It seems insane to suggest it’s time to evaluate Idzik’s 12 picks from the 2014 draft beyond noting that it’s frustrating to see fourth-rounder Jalen Saunders already released. Idzik’s draft record may turn out to be unsatisfactory, but it’s far too soon to tell.2 Look at the depth chart of the Seahawks from October 1 of Schneider’s second year with the team as a sign of how much work still had to be done. Schneider had already acquired Marshawn Lynch, but Lynch was a mess who didn’t break out until later in the 2011 season. Richard Sherman was just a fifth-round pick who hadn’t started an NFL game. The likes of Aaron Curry and Marcus Trufant were still hanging out in serious roles on the roster, while veteran fill-ins like Robert Gallery and Alan Branch would play meaningful roles that year. Most notably, pay attention to the most important spot of all: quarterback. Schneider surely knew he wasn’t going to win a ton of football games with Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback, even after making the mistake of trading a third-round pick and swapping second-round picks to acquire Whitehurst from the Chargers. Instead of spending to the limit to try to squeeze a 9-7 season out of a football team with no prayer of going far in the playoffs, Schneider maintained flexibility, trusted his ability to draft and develop talent, and waited for the right quarterback opportunity to come. Eventually he found Russell Wilson, and the rest is history. The truth for Idzik and the Jets right now is that it doesn’t matter what they do elsewhere in terms of winning now without a quarterback. They’re bad enough at that position that the other moves they make are just window dressing — a series of short-term decisions and drafted lottery tickets to set them up for that moment when they actually have the quarterback they need to succeed. That’s not what Rex Ryan or Jets fans want to hear, but it’s the reality of where they’re at in the NFL. Idzik still has to execute that plan, and it won’t matter until he finds that quarterback, but he’s on the right track. As for Ryan and the Jets? Expectations were likely too high coming into the season. The Jets were 8-8 last year, but they were outscored by 97 points, which is the point differential of a 5.4-win team. That win-loss record included an unsustainable 5-1 performance in games decided by a touchdown or less, including two miraculous wins driven by unlikely late-game penalties on the Buccaneers and Patriots.
I agree with most of what you say. A lot of the fans expect a premium player at every position and to me Idzik did ok at the cornerback position signing Patterson a decent NFL DB and going with Milliner and Walls etc. Using Allen as a starting Cb is a big surprise. He signed the best available FA Wr but the fans want him to sign more free agents when a smart team does not commit that much money to that position. But you do have to question his 2014 draft. With 12 picks and only 3 guys making the team. And not one draft day deal.
Good article. Bottomline is that we need to give Idzik time to see his plan through before we dump him.
i love bill barnwell, he's always really insightful. he basically just said what i've been saying all along, we are on a long-term plan and not a short-term one
I've said many times that I understand and am completely onboard with Idzik's plan; it's just the execution thereof I have trouble with. The article almost seems to suggest that any moves done before he finds a franchise QB is irrelevant. I beg to differ. If you draft poorly before landing your franchise QB what's to say you will draft better afterwards? Also, how can the fan base trust that you will know a franchise QB when you see one?
Agreed. No point in getting rid of a guy before you even let him implement his strategy. Otherwise, why did you even hire in the first place?
Interesting article, Idzik has a plan and we are witnessing the growing pains until the plan comes to fruition. It's just as Jets fans we seem to go through these pains every few years it's just another day at the office. We've waited this long, maybe this guy will get it right and find the Jets a stud QB.
Another major distinction between us and the Seattle model is that they did not just pay lip service to the "competition" mantra. Remember Russell Wilson WON the job as a 3rd round rookie QB, it was NOT handed to him.
Yeah but he won it from the Jackson and Flynn, if I recall - slightly different circumstances. One the previous starter, the other brought in with expectation to be starter. Geno was the incumbent here and Vick a stopgap fix if Geno wasn't going to step it up. Signs were fairly encouraging that Geno had stepped it up a bit until last weekend even if he was still turning the ball over and we weren't firing in the red zone. Read the article earlier today. Nicely balanced and thought through. Still think we could have spent a little more of the cap on a mid-ability WR and CB though. We'd be stronger and still have $15M plus cap flexibility.
Number 1 thing the jets need to do is retire the number 7 upside down. I swear to god no one in the history of the franchise that wears that number has been good.
Agree with this overall. love the plan hate the execution of the plan. Wish they had brought in someone more than Dimitri Patterson. Branden Flowers exhibit A.
I actually agree with it. Some bad luck with this year's draft, but I like Idzik's plan. He has to go forward with his own guy, though. Woody has made this so unfair.
bad luck with this years draft? McDougle's injury may have been bad luck, but there were 12 picks. it was bad drafting. Woody didn't make this unfair on Idzik. Idzik sent his coaches out there with one hand tied, and didn't surround his own hand picked QB with much to work with. What has he done to deserve new coaches and a second chance at selecting a QB? He's a huge part of the reason this season is getting disasterous, and he's managed to set back his own rebuilding process by another couple years. You don't get 5 years just to show something competitive in the NFL. This team is no more talented than 2012. He rightfully goes down with the ship imo...
Saunders, George, Dixon, and Boyd are gone, so can definitely judge those poorly from the Jets perspective. Only thing saving Shaq from being cut was the injury. i'm not expecting him to make the team next year, especially if Idzik is not there. McDougle's injury was unfortunate, but we can no longer expect him to start, at least in the near future. That's half the draft in a very very deep draft pool, and the fact we can already judge those picks a quarter into their first season is telling. There was no one worth trading up for in the 2nd or 3rd rounds? Pryor and Amaro we know are struggling and have limitations, but its definitely too soon to suggest they won't be productive players. Guys like Dozier and IK we haven't seen at all, so its too soon there as well. I'm holding out hopes that those 4 can salvage this draft. it's a long shot....but need to hold out hope for something with this current team. i think the scouting overall haul and this draft was ugly for a guy who preaches on patience and building thru the draft. but the FA approach was the even bigger crime, as the 2014 season was treated as a throw away year in part of some bigger progressing plan. well that plan was just set back, and we still haven't seen the progress..
Look I'm not gonna sit here & say the Jets hit a HR w/ this last draft. I was & continue to be critical of the lack of dynamic skill on the roster.But the #1 goal of the draft...or should I say REALISTIC goal(ultimate goal would be pro bowl starters at every single pick) is to select players who have NFL staying power & can help your football team long term. I'm not sure how one can hold guys now being on other teams as a failure. It's certainly frustrating. But Dixon & George were both thought highly enough to be on the PS. They were just raw & got beat out by more polished players to the active roster. Then another team came along & SIGNED them to their active roster. What does that tell us? Other teams thought highly enough of the draft picks to sign them to play immediately. So lets further explore some of these picks, baring in mind it's far too early to judge the class. Pryor- Is starting w/ mixed results. Inconsistent but has shown glimpses of being a plus in the box safety.Safety has been a Jets need FOREVER. Amaro- Likely the biggest surprise thus far. Was so-so in TC/preseason but has been impressive as well as productive.Has a bright future Mcdougle-Was having a great camp/preseason & then got hurt.Had a history of injury in college but the talent is obviously there for possible future dividends.We'll call this a wash Saunders- Horrible, awful pick. Wasn't even an average PR which we thought would be his downside Evans- Had some issues w/ drops in practice but got a late start due to his schooling then got hurt.Never seem to get his feet under him. Reportedly did show bright spots especially on "Deep in" type routes. He'll come in & compete next year..hopefully working on his hands as he rehabs Dozier- Was impressive in both TC & preseason especially as a pass blocker. Beat out both Campbell(who didn't look bad) & shlauderoff for roster spot. Needs to add more pop to his run blocking by adding upper body strength but he looks like a keeper. Likely battles w/ Aboushi for RG spot next yr. George- Was raw from the get-go but showed athletic promise. Placed on PS for development but got snatched by Jax to their active roster Boyd- Bad pick. PS Fodder at best. Not even in the NFL. Dixon- Showed promise in man coverage as well as the ability to tackle. Got caught up in log jam of #4-ish type CB's. Stashed to PS & snatched by Tampa where he has played alot in games IK- Raw high motor role player type who displayed the ability to bend around the edge in obvious passing situations. Stashed away on PS...likely on active roster next yr Enunwa- Really a mystery at this point. Was hurt most of camp & was quiet when he was active beyond 2 promising showings in practice toward the end of preseason. Def. has some physical tools to work w/..stashed on PS. The "domestic" issue is the wildcard. He'll either be released or will be active by week 8(current WR corps is THAT bad) Reilly- Very solid pick. He's strong, tough & versatile. His floor is a dependable role/st player..and his ceiling is a solid hold the fort starter Is this really the disastrous draft people are making it out to be?
