Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

just checked them out....wow...the big island hasnt been under a hurricane warning since 93. The path of the first one seems to take it south of all the other islands except the big Island. This will have a ton of rain to put up with but the stronger winds should be confined to its first hit.

The present track Iselle will be a direct hit for the Big Island before passing just south of the smaller islands, Maui or Oahu.

Now the islands could luck out with Julio, the second storm, because its path will be almost the same...but hurricanes need warmer waters to strengthen and the fact that it will pass just a few days after Iselle will mean the waters will be much cooler then normal because of all the spinning and churning of the waters from Iselle. While Julio will probably be stronger as it begins to get closer, most models have it going down in power as it gets closer...but something to watch.

Will keep an eye out...sorry HAYN...forgot about you out there!

 

yep....as brook said stay safe bud. The parts of the Islands that will be hit with the worst of it are broken down in to two parts because of location to the eye of the storm...and location because of wind direction which will provide the highest tides.

The southern sides of all the islands will get the most rain because of their closer proximity to the eye of the storm..and the big Island actually getting the direct hit. The northern and eastern parts of all the Islands will get the worst beach erosion and highest storm surge because as it approaches, the winds will be from the north first...then gradually the northeast...and then directly from the east...since the storm will be to the south..counterclockwise rotation. Once the storm passes, the winds will continue to change...southeast...south...and then southwest as it pulls away. Since the storm will be weaker on the backside...areas to the south will get less storm surge and beach erosion...but more rain.

The more northern Islands might get more beach erosion to the south because of location. Not sure if all that makes sense but depending on location, more north...more storm surge from the north...more south...more rain...mudslides etc.

Keep us updated bud...the next 24 hours should be tough. Good luck H....will try to give you some live reports tonight.

 

Looking at the current track by accuweather...looks like Honolulu will have the worst of it from around midnight tonite till around 10am tomorrow H. Center of the eye crosses directly thru the middle of the big island which means the northern part of island is going to be in real rough shape while the southern part of the island will skate away with just a real windy rainstorm. Amazing how 100 miles either way is the difference between losing power for weeks and picking up a few branches and leaves off the driveway but thats what will happen with that Island.

Again...good luck bud. Stay safe.

 

Yeah guys..the setup is there for a prolonged heavy rain event from Tuesday night thru Wednesday...this type of setup is called a triple point....when...better yet...let me get the NWS definition.

TRIPLE POINT:

Triple Point
The intersection point between two boundaries (dry line, outflow boundary, cold front, etc.), often a focus for thunderstorm development. Triple point also may refer to a point on the gust front of a supercell, where the warm moist inflow, the rain-cooled outflow from the forward flank downdraft, and the rear flank downdraft all intersect; this point is a favored location for tornado development (or redevelopment).

Bottom line is this setup is conducive to a variety of weather..including the potential for Tornadoes. The setup could take place anywhere from the Delmarva Peninsula to directly over North Jersey/Lower Hudson Valley...or anywhere in between. While just around the setup area will be the worst, all areas should join in on some pretty nasty weather.

While this is looking like a very high percentage of nasty weather, this summer has been filled with potential nasty fronts that have not dropped a lick of rain (see last week). This potential is different though and while NWS has it at about 70 percent chance....its only that low because we are 70 or so hours away from the potential time frame beginning.

If all that should pan out does pan out, we are looking at 2 to 4 inches of rain with localized areas getting over 5....locally strong winds etc. This will NOT be a rainstorm with a start and an end but more of every 2 to 4 hours of heavy downpours and then stoppages..then repeat.

Now..the good news is that this again will be followed by incredible weather with highs not hitting 80 and lows in the 50s at night for at least 4 days after.

Will keep an eye out as we get closer.

 

batten down the hatches because it is going to rain and the wind will be blowing all night tonite and early morning before dry cool weather takes over....radar showing that west to east.....the next couple hours begin the rough stuff but overnight it will pour.