Im done...and for the last time the reason and number I gave above is the reason Vegas..and then the betting public..does not take into consideration how tough it is to get there..they take into account what team is good enough to win it. If the NFC has the best 4 teams..and the public agrees..then in all likelihood the public would bet those teams the top 4 teams in the odds to win it. That was fun!!
A betting public that takes 3-1 odds (made less than 15 minutes after Decision 2.0) on the Cavs winning the title does. You take a shitty line like that and you are basically assuming that line will hold.
jay, remember - The system is always set up for Vegas to make $$, to ensure the house has the better chance of winning. They never really place odds based upon who they think will win, that's a smaller part of it. It if was about on the court stuff the wise guys would be smart sports people, not businessmen and mathematicians. By putting the Cavs at 3-1 they are protecting their asses by recognizing they have an easier road to get there overall.... (anything can happen in one series - that's why the teams with the best chance to get to that one series can be dangerous, even if they aren't the best overall) You also have to factor in that they like to create sucker's bets.. which they could be doing here, but that's another whole discussion. They want you to think the odds for each team are based on what they think about each team, and ideally that would be the case, but that's not the case. The odds are based on the field and on the best way for them to make $$. It's kinda like picking stocks in a way. Warren Buffett is great not because he is really just grabbing the best companies to buy his shares, he's great because he recognizes the companies best able to take advantage of the market.
Okay I guess if you really believe that. I tend to think it has more to do with the ease of the path to the finals and nothing about what folks think of how good the Cavs are. Cav believers are buying jerseys and tickets, they're not making bets that the Cavs are winning it all because Lebron just made them the best team in the league. The money is being laid because of the chances just to get to the finals skyrocketed vis-a-vis the Heat who last week were the odds on East winners. It's a total opportunity play. Nobody I'm their right mind thinks the Cavs are better than the Spurs or OKC or Clips. _
no...Vegas does right now...and the betting public will either correct it or not. You being sarcastic with me JS or are you serious?
You're saying that there are no Cavs fans taking these odds right now, correct? You're assuming that among the cross section of compulsive gamblers in the US, the widely announced Vegas line for the Cavs has had exactly zero effect on the gambling public of Cleveland, the wider fanbase of the Cavaliers, and the normally non-betting Cavs fans who are on an emotional high and heard about that line 10 minutes after his announcement? Not to mention the Lebron fans that will basically Tebag him on command? Vegas must be spinning their wheels, then. There's no way anybody would lay such a weak odds bet just because right now, in this moment, they believe Lebron made their team the best in the league.
BN...totally agree with the first 2 paragraphs..but what does that have to do with the argument. They put the Cavs at 3 to 1 because by emotion, they think they will get a rush of James follower at a good price. Now, once that settles down...the smart gambler will wait...perhaps to even see the Spurs maybe go from 4 to 1 to maybe 9/2..and then the big guns will correct it. The Cavs will not be the favorite by the time the season begins..that is a bet I would take. And again..you are correct..they do it based on what they think about each team....not about what conference is tougher to get by. That has nothing to do with a strong favorite team. Nobody is going to bet against the Yankees let say...in their glory days..because the Red Sox were very good too. I just don't get how people think conference has much to do about it. I bet on the Yankees in the 90s to win it all not because the American League or National League is good or sucks...they are the best team.
Jay, Vegas never lays odds on what they believe. They lay odds on what they can make a lot of suckers believe.
Oh sure I believe there are some Cavs fans and some Lebron fans are betting on the Cavs. But I believe the much bigger play is the ease of the path to the finals. It makes more statistical sense. _
And I agree with that...and they surely do not take into consideration that a team might have a tougher road etc....holy crap. How many times you open the paper and ay wow..thats a gimme. Vegas knows what they are doing..and they are surely not sitting there thinking taking out a calculator to see if the bettors will go another way because of what conference they are coming from. Im betting on the Cavs because I want to blow LJ. Im betting on the Yanks because I love the Yanks...Im betting on the Broncos because right now, they are scoring 80 points a game.
Actually they lay odds such that half the money falls on both sides of the bet. And move the line accordingly. _
