Guys in really big oppulent buildings in Las Vegas--a bunch of quants is we call them in my business. _
Im doing 3 things at once..so I will answer that for you...its us..the betting public. So when week 1 comes...and Vegas put out there numbers...do those numbers change before he season starts? Before you guys take your calculators out? Do they change?
Not bad..but don't get cute...you determine the number...I determine the number...ITS MY MONEY. Its your money. When Vegas puts their odds out to win the championship....what happens to those odds?
We are not talking about a discreet bet week one--we are talking about a bet over a season. The odds will change over time based on injuries, trades, how teams are playing, but right now it's based on the potential for even being available to play in the finals. _
So there you are Soxxx...and JS..sitting in your home and the baby needs a new pair of shoes right? The pool wants a heater...so you place your bet..and what happens to those odds when you place your bet?
Week one kick off in 4 minutes...you are about to place your bet. The odds have changed....everyone at home is putting their bets in. They are not checking out who has the tougher conference...they are picking the best team...which determines the final odds.
Bettors understand that when it comes to a championship bet, you have to determine the likelihood of a team even getting to the finals and the likelihood that teams WON'T make the finals. That's the reason why the money is falling on the Cavs, for the exact statistical reasons we've been espousing. If you bet on the Spurs winning the championship right now, you might have a 1 in 4 chance that they aren't even PLAYING in the finals. _
Again, that is a discreet bet on a sinlge game not taking into account any other outcomes across the league. That's NOT what these odds signify. -
The odds become more likely. The Spurs are what? 6 to 1 right now? Well if 100 million people bet tomorrow that the Spurs will win that 6 will drop to a lower number.
For a hypothetical that would take too long to explain...if the 49ers....the Seahawks..and the Packers..are the 3 best teams in the NFC..and because of injuries all over the AFC...the Jets...the Dolphins...and the Steelerss..are the best teams in the AFC...the odds would NOT be this: Seahawks 3 to 1 Jets 4 to 1 49ERS 4 to 1 Dolphins 5 to1 Packers 5 to 1 Steelers 6 to 1 That's would not be the final numbers.
I know JS..my example is on teams getting to the finals bud. Im telling you..that's not how it works. Hey...we disagree.
I run my pool heater once or twice early in the season and because I get so much sun and my pool deck holds so much heat, I don't need to put it on the rest of the summer. Pool is 85 degrees right now and my heater hasn't been on in a month. _
