yeah fjf..its a real close call. If the western portion of the models is realized...while not a washout..a bad day. Still time for the front to kick this thing out a bit...but wouldn't count on it. Tough call...I would go with a split day..by evening much clearing but its a pure guess going with one model mean. The front will cause some nasty thunderstorms tomorrow..that's for sure. JWWS...you are good to go this weekend bud!...anytime.
Just looked at the GFS...hmmm...really close call for Friday..people might wake up Friday and say..cancel..and then by 2pm say why did we cancel. Tough call.
Just checked all the models precip numbers and all I have to say is..wow..hopefully not the case but some models showing close to 4 inches of rain for parts of NJ and PA and NY. Most will fall Thursday with the front and being northwest of the eye...little double barrel action there.
Jay I will need to go to Manhattan Thursday morning and stay there until 1 PM. Am I safe to return home without dealing with rain?
Hi Jay! Sorry to have to call upon you during the summer but what's the forecast for Long Island for this system? Hope all is well in the house and the kiddos aren't giving you too hard a time!
It is real right now. Power blinked. Lightening hitting very very close. This is some cell working theough the hudson valley
Fla I all ways forget where u are,,,I'm in the Hudson valley it's all good here,,,,,,,,,,keep me posted as I'm in the pool with the kids and friends,,,,,,keep em coming Jay
I cant see that being the case Brook but its all hit and miss..I will try to really take a good look at timing later but tomorrow is NOT from the hurricane although the front interacting with the outer bands will help ignite the front even more. Sooo....all that rain tomorrow will be mostly front...let me check the NWS to make sure if they have a good read on timing.
from NWS...they have the timing starting early tomorrow..with many people booking, this could be a problem for those that get caught at the wrong time..and only live radar will tell that story. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...EASTERN BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX... EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERN UNION...HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN... WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN PASSAIC AND WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BRONX...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHERN QUEENS...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER... ORANGE...PUTNAM...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...ROCKLAND... SOUTHERN QUEENS AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER. * FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING * A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A TOTAL OF AN INCH TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HELPING TO ENHANCE THESE RAINFALL TOTALS. * THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLOODING OF URBANIZED AREAS...ROADWAYS...AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. SMALL STREAM FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. &&
FM...Long Island could have a problem with this because latest models have it closer to the coast. Now, that means that while many should clear out by Friday afternoon, some models have this hanging around the Island until early Saturday morning. NOW...IMPORTANT....The models many of us digest are the same models that we use all year long..they have weaknesses with tropical storms. They COULD be overdoing the precip amounts. The actual hurricane models, which I do not have access to yet...I will in about 30 days...show the storm being a bit more out to sea. So..maybe I didn't answer your question.... Long Island should get heavy down pours from the front from Tomorrow morning until Friday evening at least. We will also get hit or miss storms today and tonight as FJF pointed out. The rain tomorrow is from the front...the hurricane moisture will take over Friday to Friday evening for Long Island. How much wind etc? Early guess would be for Friday winds to be from 25 to 40 with gusts up to 50..ON LONG ISLAND. I will really pull whatever I see tonight around 7
FM...Cut back those winds about 10 mph...the EURO has winds in LI about 15 to 25 with gusts over 30. Not sure if that's taking the models closer to the coast into account but will check that later.
I am in dutchess. You're in rockland right? Its been rocking here for a couple hours now. Must be keeping north of you
Crazy how many will get whats going to happen in the next 48 hours and think its part of the tropical storm/hurricane Arthur. Much of this..if not all of this..will be from the front that's just starting to put a hold on our area and Im telling you, looking at the radar..and if you read FJFs posts, these storms when they hit...CRAWL..and many areas by the time Friday morning comes, will get over 5" of rain when all is said and done. As far as the Hurricane is concerned, looks like it grazes SC..then heads directly for the Outer Banks before turning north east and perhaps clipping Cape Cod...a bit more west and it could even graze Eastern L.I.....and by graze I mean the main part of it close to the eye. To the west? I really think the models are confusing some precip from this front with the major storm..and that for most, tons of rain in the next 36 hours with perhaps some showers and thunderstorms on Friday from Arthur. Cant see how the July 4th fireworks will have a problem in almost all areas .
Good pick up hiker...winds are now at 70 so just a few miles under changing the name to HURRICANE Arthur. That should happen by morning. Storm will actually slide off Jersey coast and the concern is when tropical in nature storms get absorbed by low pressures or the front that will give us all the rain on Thursday...they sometimes act like someone taking a sponge and squeezing every last drop out of it...somewhere...where this sets up...buckets of rain. Highs on Friday may not get above 72...but with all the humidity, will feel a bit warmer. All signs are still pointing to a crappy July 4th...becoming great for fireworks...and then a tremendous weekend with perfect weather. BROOK! Showers are supposed to pick up big time late morning so keep that in mind for the drive home.
Fla ,,,,,wow about 45 minutes after your post it started rocking and rolling here,,,lights flickered a few times,,,the dog has been under my bed for 3 hours,,,,,crazy stuff
Run for the hills! How's DC area look for this wknd? Was gonna go to the beach but f that, decided to on a wknd in the capital instead.
Jay, I'm in Portsmouth, RI for the next few days. My fiance was saying that they are actually expecting to get hit by the hurricane. Models I see look like it's just going to miss RI. Have you seen anything different? Forecasts are saying 100% chance of rain tomorrow so thank God fireworks are tonight.
