Has changed the last 48 hours GG. We would want the front to stay more north so the winds come from the south...and the storms stay further north of us. Will keep an eye out but Saturday is a more 50/50 thing. Sunday looks crappy for sure. Temps still look cooler then normal. Will keep an eye out for you.
This from the NWS....a few days ago they had partly sunny mid 80s but they are beginning to buy the models. Still think their temps are about 10 degrees too high..lets hope not: Saturday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Sunday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Holy shit. I just flashed back to january. Jay is on posting n.w.s forecasts and talking models. Been watching saturday for a week now jay. Big party this weekend. I gotta say,it looks alot better than it did last week. As long as it stays dry I could careless about the temps
really close call for saturday FJF...Sunday looks more like it could be worse. Hopefully...stall...stall stall bud!! Great to see you!
damn jay, i posted off what i saw on the 6a.m. gfs. just looked at the most recent and yikes,dry till about 5-6ish saturday pm? still 5 days out, we can get it to keep trending north and right over us,no?
Yo Jay, I'm glad to see you getting your butt back to work on here.. LOL I'm on the Jersey shore this upcoming Sunday. Any idea what the wind direction will be? You wouldn't have a Jersey shore forecast for Belmar in your back pocket do ya?
latest looks like Saturday will be poor and Sunday better FJF...but that great thing is is yep..its a front..and its Tuesday...lots of room for change..tons.
CMAN..I know where you are going.....here is a great link for you all week long. Goes out to Saturday now...easterlys. Keep an eye out LINK: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...84472656&map_y=152.41999053955078&x=248&y=153 if you take that in order CMAN, my early guess would be southeast?
I think you're gonna be right Jay. Too bad because SE winds are onshore and aren't conducive to great fishing. It will depend on what the swells look like. Anything over 4ft and I'm probably not going. Sea Bass season ends on the 30th. until October. Oh well, there's always Fluke, Blues and Stripers to keep me busy.
How long before you make your final decision CMAN? Can you hold out until Thursday/ Friday? So much can change.
I will say this FJF...the first thing you look at before the precip models is the temps..the temps determine the front and where it sets up and becomes "stationary". Since the temps now jumped from mid 60s to low to mid 70's that's a trend north so it could also be the precip sets up farther north. It could be a saving grace. Very likely there will be some heavy showers...but time is the factor. If todays trend continues, could be overnight Saturday which would save you guys there bud. By the way..great read on GFS bud...I can see for the winter I will have some great help from you...you are really getting it big time bud!
Sure.. Just hoping to have something a bit more solid by Saturday at the latest. I need to let the fishing club know what's up for Sunday AM. I'm pretty sure I won't have much trouble sparing folks from getting up at 0300.. LOL
thanks for the tip jay. haven't been looking at temps, just surface pressure and precip. it gets addicting, i probably look t the models twice a day now, half hoping for a big event to try to track
FJF..its all about reading models...and then one day you read a model and say "that was the same setup when this happened" and you start to learn about trends. When you start to get the trends...you start to think outside the box and trends become your first priority when thinking long term. Then you start to get frustrated with the suits on the major networks because its all about 2+2=4...but last week it actually equaled 3. By winter, you will start to see the trends of December leading into January. Its like a poster here who stated it always rains on weekends this year for awhile...luck? No..the jet stream is feeding a disturbance every 5 to 7 days. Blabbing..but you are really getting it bud.. Great friggin job. CMAN...that latest model trended a bit north early Saturday. Might be a good sign for Saturday which would keep winds East though..with perhaps the showers earlier in the day and maybe not a bad day afterall. Sunday still looks crappy...but the front is further north..so the below temps are not nearly as bad.
and here is the latest offshore forecast..a bit of a change in winds. Sunday is more southerly..and FJF...counterclock wise..the front stalls farther north..warmer temps too. So CMAN..east winds Saturday with better weather and SOUTH winds Sunday but storms more likely: NWS OFF SHORE: Sat E winds around 5 kt...becoming SE. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Sun S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
Thanks Jay! We got wet gear so that's not a problem. Seas at 2-3ft is music to my ears. Actually it's music to Mrs. C's ears thru the magic of Dramamine. One of these days, I'll have to send ya some filets!!
This weather forecast for Saturday keeps changing every few hours. Hopefully mostly dry and decent temp
no problem GG...in fact the latest GFS today has the cold front coming through Saturday morning with some tstorms but then perhaps clearing out with highs in the upper 60s..might actually be really comfortable day. Will keep an eye out for you with any big changes if they happen.
