Well, I didn't say he didn't try at times to force passes in there, but that was based largely on not seeing the location of the defender in relation to where his pass would end up. The main point is he had far too many int's, and that they were all on him, not due to tipped passes and that sort of thing.
There are a lot of reasons Geno struggled, and different interceptions were for different reasons. Early on, he looked really nice. That was when he had most of his receivers healthy. Some of his picks were a result of a LB in hidden coverage, something that he would not have faced much of in college. If a rookie QB didn't throw at least a couple picks like that, I would be incredibly surprised, it's just something that QB's have to learn from experience on the field. Some of his picks resulted from him overestimating his ability to fit the ball into coverage. He actually has a really nice, accurate arm, and this is more of a learning process about the speed of NFL defenders than overestimating his arm. I'm not worried so much about those kinds of picks, as they really are part of the learning process. The picks I'm more concerned about are the ones he throws off balance as the pass rush gets him panicky. Nothing loses the game quicker than a panicky QB. If Geno had finished the season such a way as he was playing in the middle, I'd be far more worried. Instead, he learned, remained calm in the pocket, and regained his confidence. Learning curve mistakes are fine, losing one's cool is not. Geno's ability to regain his composure in the last 4 or so games of the year makes me much much higher on him than I would have been had he not shown that improvement. They brought in a QB as legitimate competition because of that mid season stretch where he lost his composure. They think he can get better because of that late season improvement, but they smartly did not want to go into the season without a contingency plan should Geno falter in a similar fashion.
I think the reason why are throwing INTs is very important. Not actually seeing defenders is far worse than poor anticipation. If you have WRs that can create separation, you can get away with or even be successful having poor anticipation. If you are not seeing defenders, then you are going to throw a ton of picks no matter who you are playing with.
Yes he struggled for various reasons (mechanics, footwork, pocket awareness...etc.). However, when you look at his INTs , most were because he was late on his throws and very few were of the throwing into traps (e.g., the Kiki Alonso pick) or up for grabs to avoid pressure variety. In fact, off the top of my head, I don't even remember an up for grabs throw; maybe the Tampa Bay game but even that was more of a bad throw. The silver lining is that for the most part he was making the correct reads.
I didn't mean only up for grabs throws or that he even had to avoid pressure on them. Often part of what made him panicky was a hit or strong rush, but his panicky attitude would carry over into plays where he had a clean pocket. Don't get me wrong, I'm really not even disagreeing with you, just clarifying what I meant. He would make late throws because a guy would be open for a second, but instead he would second guess himself, look for the next throw, and then turn back and throw it to the first player but the opportunity would have passed. Because of that bad decision making, his balls would also be less accurate because he wouldn't give himself time to set his legs, again as a result of his panicky/bad pocket presence. Constantly backing up and taking sacks was a major issue of his as well, but again he seems to have learned and made a conscious effort to not give up yards like that.
I felt like a lot of Smiths picks came from overconfidence in his ability to hit a tight window while trying to hit a home run pass. his release, eye movement and anticipation was just a bit too slow, by the time he decides to throw he sees an open man and anticipates where they'll wind up and targets that general area, but by the time he releases the ball defenders are already on the move and his receiver wasn't nearly as open as he initially thought. after a while i think he was taking less of a chance at that (expect his pick vs Carolina which is a textbook case of what i described above) and I think he's making bigger efforts to make sure he throws it as far from defenders as possible, and overall his instincts and "feel" for them seemed improved. One wonders what a wide receiver that beats his man late like Decker does might do to make him feel that he can slip into that belief again. I suppose it all depends on how much of a connection they have. Decker's skilled and smart enough overall to make the kind of grabs necessary for Smith's choice to throw in moderate traffic to be a valid one, its a major reason Double Decker's getting paid the big bucks. I just fear what happens if he thinks he can try it with... well anybody else.
In college Bailey and Austin got tremendous separation. Playing w/ our WRs last year was a downgrade. One of 2 things has to happen in 2014, WRs will have to create better separation or Smith's improve his anticipation. If neither happen, then expect more of the same.
I guess it depends on where you judge from. If you're going from his awful slump in the middle of the season than yes he has a long haul. However it appeard to me that he has started the ascension over the last month of the season. Now you discount that by claiming his ypa went down and will bash the teams we played against but the undisputable truth is we were 3-1 against nfl teams with geno at qb and not turning the ball over. Since that was the last sample we have there is no evidence to support an argument that the arrow is not pointing up.
Mornhinweg will have to provide most opportunities of open receivers through design, and Smith will have to become a master of knowing just what will transpire on any given play, which I'm thinking he's already started to do. Also, Like I said earlier Decker doesn't have to have yards of separation to make a grab which could either help Smiths effectiveness or hinder his developing instincts, but then I suppose you didn't specify what you meant by better separation.
Totally agree. The bold was like 80% of his INTs. Towards the end of the year that slowed down immensely but not because his anticipating skills improved. It's, like you said, he took less chances. His mental clock in the pocket sped up and he began to be more decisive about tucking and running. Decker is a ball skills, strong hangs guy and not a guy that's going to create a lot of separation. When you consider the added attention he is likely to get from opposing secondaries this year, there should be some cause for concern that Geno's INT rate goes back up. I think out of the WRs we drafted, Saunders might be the best for Geno because his game is predicated on creating space from defenders.
yeah, who knows how much Decker gains substantial separation, it should be fine as long as Smith and he are on the same page and the ball is placed in a location away from defenders. Decker can make an adjustment with the best of them, I can see a lot of difficult grabs being made on his part in one on one scenarios, a bond on the field between these two could make a major difference despite seemingly dipping into something Smith struggled with. As for Decker in double coverage i say go right ahead, its only to a defenses disadvantage. keep two guys on him as he goes deep, its not like the jets don't have a physical TE or a couple of effective catching RB's to use short or even a QB that can scramble well off that side or anything.
I addressed the Decker separation thing in my last post. This topic is a microcosm of why I question some of Idzik's moves. You draft a QB with poor anticipation skills for a passing offense predicated on timing. Now you have this young QB that struggles his timing and anticipation, you bring in a guy like Decker rather than a quick/speedy type WR that can offset your young QB's weakness. There's examples like this throughout our roster like Dee Milliner, even Richardson. Everyone says he has a plan. If he does, it's a plan that doesn't take into consideration our current offensive and defensive schemes. I guess that makes sense as neither Rex nor MM are signed here for the long term.
While I have complete confidence in Decker's abilities to do his part, I don't know if Geno can nor do I think it fair to expect that from him in year 2. Proper ball placement is one of the hardest skills to develop. Even those proficient at it at the college level need to improve in order to be proficient at the NFL level. Geno never even had to think about ball placement at WVU; guys just got open. Now, we are banking that he will suddenly develop this skill in one off-season. We had effective to good production from our TEs and RBs last year. That's not the reason why we were near the bottom of every major passing statistic.
No contradiction on my part. My point was that Manziel playing in the SEC doesn't make him a better QB than Geno. Stokes argument was that Manziel playing in the SEC meant he was better than Geno since the SEC had better teams.
The Vick to Decker deep ball combo will be a thing of beauty to behold and mark my words, it will be a match made in heaven and a template upon which Smith will be able to learn without paying the price in costly interceptions....
Well to be clear I did not say Smith got worse towards the end. Heh. I just don't think the changes to his game we saw are a prelude to becoming a quality NFL Qb. Without a doubt there were tradeoffs, and ypa was a metric that showed part of that picture. But I also anticipate that opposing DC's (assuming Smith is playing over Vick, which I hope does not happen) will be better prepared for the times he runs the ball. He's a fairly big guy, but a couple of big hits when he takes off will begin to show the downside of that, too. But overall, shortening up the passing game is a dubious approach to avoiding interceptions. DC's will respond to that as well.
That was a different discussion. You said earlier that quality of opponent was not a significant factor in assessing the meaning of the Jets' last four games, but then went on to claim Miami was a quality team, supporting the view that the win against the fish was a valuable metric.
Both good points. Smith defenders complaiin about the lack of support the team gave him, but the truth is the Jets had the sixth best rushing attack supporting him, which probably understates the value of the running support since the passing attack was such a weak threat. Also agree on the general point which is my main reason for skepticism about him that it is unreasonable to expect a huge improvement from Smith this off season. I don't know what he has been doing since the last game, but I have a hard time seeing the Jets putting off a decision on who starts once they get to camp.
