No, it's just reality. 1st and 2nd round picks are a hefty investment of value. You may put on a show competition to push the rookie but you're never seriously considering having the rookie sit unless he totally fails at his job. Miss a few 1sts and 2nds in a multi-year span and you are out of a job as GM and coach. That just is what it is. There are other things that will get you fired as well but having your early picks not turn out is high on the list.
The bold is not entirely true. You can miss a few 1st and 2nds in a multi-year span if you are hitting on late rounders and UDFA in the same span. This is especially true now under the new rookie scale. Missing on early picks no longer have the same crippling effect on a franchise as it used to provided, of course, you are performing well in other player acquisition avenues.
Yeah, my bad. That's what I meant. You don't know that yet. Last year we had 6 starters from the draft. The point is, with twelve picks, the odds of having more starters increases, as does the depth chart
By my count it was just 5 (Milliner, Richardson, Smith, Winters and Bohanon). Who am I missing? Still, how many of the 5 really should have been starting? It can be argued Smith that Smith started only because Rex made one of the most bonehead coaching decisions I've ever witnessed as a football fan. Milliner and Winters were terrible for most of the year and we had guys that were less terrible behind them. Bohannon is a FB that can not block. I don't think he even had to compete for the job. That leaves really just Richardson.
Going one step further to my positional breakdown, here are the positions that I'm not convinced the Jets are strong at. QUARTERBACK: 2 guys competing for starting job. One should be better than he was for most of last year. One IS better than the guy we had play most of last year. RECEIVER: Decker is a clear upgrade on one side. Most of the same guys are back on the other side, who could improve due to youth (Kerley, Hill) or experience in the system (Nelson), plus 3 rookies and Jacoby Ford were added. Anyone outside of Decker and Kerley could be a starter or could be cut. TIGHT END: Cumberland is a solid complementary tight end. Amaro is also a receiving tight end, but the Jets sorely needed another body here, and now they have it. Sudfeld as the #3 TE is fine, and he'll compete with Pantale. Not sure if Amaro will be better than Winslow right off the bat, but I wouldn't be surprised either. GUARD: Same starters are back as last year. You'd think Winters would have to be better in year 2. However, as you mentioned, there isn't as clear a comptition. Still, considering the Jets drafted 3 potential guards last year (including Winters) and another this year (Dozier), there is enough youth there where someone could easily step up. CORNERBACK: Milliner is back and we all expect him to improve in year 2. On the other side, it's wide open, but Patterson has NFL starting experience. So does Wilson. Even Walls has started in the past. A semi-premium pick was spent on McDougle this year. Dowling and Patrick were once highly thought of, too. Lankster has been around for a few years, but he's not terrible. There is enough talent here where the Jets should be able to find 3 cornerbacks to go with Milliner. While it likely won't be a great group, considering how bad Cro was last year, it should still be improved. SAFETY: Adding a 1st-round pick in Pryor shores up this unit a lot. Landry and Allen will compete for playing time, and Bush, Jarrett, Rontez Miles, Brandon Hardin and others will compete for depth. Basically take last year's unit and add a 1st-round pick to it, and move everyone else down a spot, and you get this year's unit. PUNTER: I guess Palardy is the primary competition for Quigley? Punter is always a fluid position, and the Jets could wait til final cuts to grab their punter if they wanted. The Jets don't really need competition for starting jobs elsewhere because everywhere else is basically set. And still, people will compete at RB, for depth offensive line spots and for depth linebacker spots. Bottom line is that entering camp, the Jets have far more players who have the ability to be NFL-caliber players in the past. If you believe in the Idzik mantra of competition helps players improve, then you would think we might be able to get some breakout players at a couple positions.
I don't think you really think all 12 picks will make the 53 man roster, but putting that aside, I really don't like the point made with the bolded part. As Legler points out really only one of those players was an effective starter, albeit an excellent one, in Richardson. I do not dispute the way Rex used Milliner, since he came on as the season went on, and imo showed us his draft status potential. In fact I think Milliner will live up to his draft status. (which makes me not a hater, ftr, imvho, lol) But it is likely despite that that if the Jets had a better cb on the roster, Milliner would have sat despite his draft status. But everyone else started by default, including imo Smith. Winters is the perfect example. He flat out lost the pre-season competition to Ducasse, who proceeded to dump all over his starting status with ridiculous penalties, effectively leading the Jets to get rid of him. Even mediocre performance by Ducasse would have kept Winters on the bench, where he otherwise belonged.
I agree with this. And that's more reason why competition helps. It won't always work, and guard last season is a good example. Last year, the Jets thought Ducasse might finally be able to be a starting guard, and if not, either a 3rd-round pick in Winters or a veteran FA in Peterman would be able to be serviceable. That didn't happen. However, having a deeper overall roster should prevent things like that from happening. Last year, the Jets had position battles at quarterback, running back, receiver, tight end, guard, defensive line and safety (assuming Milliner was the starting CB like the staff appeared to). Out of that, the Jets were able to get serviceable safety play when Allen stepped up, serviceable RB play when Powell stepped up, and awesome DL play when Harrison and Richardson stepped up. I think there's more talent competing for these spots this year, which should lead to more success stories and less starting guys by default.
Ftr I have no general problem by any means with competition where a team for whatever reason is not set, so there's that. I don't have any issues with what else you said, but for 2 things, the first being Cumberland. I think he's been a disappointment. Perhaps I was unrealistic in expecting bigger things from him, since I found Keller frustrating and hoped for a more consistent level of performance from Cumberland. It hasn't happened, least like what I think many hoped. In that connection I have to think lack of satisfaction with Cumberland had to be involved in the Amaro pick. Meanwhile I thought Sudfeld showed some real promise last year. I wonder if NE is happy he was cut by them. Says here Sudfeld makes the squad, and there may be competition between them for who is #2 on the depth chart, assuming Amaro is #1. The other point regards the OL. I know about the picks last year and this, but as of now we have not seen anyone in that group show that they can and will step up. Colon concerned me going into last year, and he surprised by staying healthy til the end. It's a concern again this year, and as you point out it is not clear that Winters will play better, although i also agree it is reasonable to expect he will, somewhat anyway. But right now, how much depth the Jets have at OL is rather vague.
Yeah I wonder what happened with Peterman. Your mention of him makes me recall how I thought he might actually start going into last season, but in the end we never saw him, despite the LG problems. He must have really sucked in practice. Heh. I tend to assume Landry has the edge over Allen, but Allen is certainly worth your mention. Yes he was a nice surprise, and he may well not be done surprising us.
Correct. Excellent post. Getting starters from the draft means someone "won" the starting job from your sample of players available. Big whoop! Yes, the Jets have a lot of depth at several positions but sometimes you look into that pool of "talent" and it has "x" amount of upside. Is THIS the talent that will win us games and hopefully make the playoffs? I hope so. On the other hand, we have to ask ourselves why is the jury still out on Milliner and Geno etc. Will there be a true QB competition or is management going to give the edge to someone they already have hung their hat on like Geno?or justify some bad decision like McDougle. That said, even though the Jets could not trade up for Lee or Cooks we did pick up T.Boyd who I believe is a true dark horse threat to be a franchise QB down the road. Not trying to be negative ,but I have a lot more confidence in our free agent acquisitions than being owned by every draft decision Idzik is making. My feeling is we are a lot more competitive overall based primarily on Rnds. 1-2 of draft and some key FA pickups in Vick and CJ.
You could be right on the timeline...I think there is a some sense of urgency among us (sigh) older fans who have watched an organization like the Giants win 2 times within recent years. Just occurred to me but the Giants didn't follow a Seattle model exactly--so there probably are other roads leading to Rome?
If you are a realist than I am too, man!!!! The forum is exactly that....to let people sound off about the way they feel about the Jets. Vick and CJ are a big answers to the Jets problems despite some glaring needs not exactly met the way we expected at WR/CB. In that way, too, I see an upside to the Jets season, which I still have at 10-6. Bottom 5 to make SB?? Don't see it...anyway hope I am not a geriatric before the Jets win again. LOL.
Please remember, there is also the quote "he beat out the competition" Why? Usually it is because the quality (skill, speed,innate ability) that player has, all things being equal, to another player is better. This is why a Brandon Cooks beats out a S.Evans on the college level and Megatron/Johnson over a Hill/Ford on a Pro Level.
We had 5 starters out of last years draft, although Winters didn't start until game 4 or 5. Last year we had a substantially inferior amount of talent on the roster, and so having a guy start was a much bigger likelihood at the time. I think the chances are this year we won't "start" a FB, and instead we will "start" two TE's. I think we will have 2 week 1 starters from this draft, and they are our two top picks. If we are talking week 1, I think our starters will be listed as: QB: Geno Smith RB: Chris Ivory TE: Jeff Cumberland TE: Jace Amaro WR: Eric Decker WR: Stephen Hill LT: D'Brickashaw Ferguson LG: Brian Winters C: Nick Mangold RG: Willie Colon RT: Breno Giacomini DE: Muhammad Wilkerson NT: Damon Harrison DE: Sheldon Richardson LOLB: Quinton Coples ILB: David Harris ILB: DeMario Davis ROLB: Calvin Pace CB: Dee Milliner CB: Dimitri Patterson S: Antonio Allen S: Calvin Pryor I think because of Patterson's injury likelihood, McDougle could very well be starting by the end of the year.
Personally, I think the WR and LG positions are wide open this year. Winters, Campbell, Aboushi, Dozier could all be in the mix at LG. Who knows, by the end of the year Eric Decker could be WR3 behind Hill & Shaq. So many possibilities!
All this talk about being a starter or not ... even if a guy doesn't start he can still contribute in a situational role and on special teams. The players that fit into that category are the meaty part of the depth discussion and a big part of what trading up left us lacking.
