Here's my Round 1. The formatting is a little nice on the link but you can see the content. http://www.cornerblitz.com/2014/Mocks/Final/Default.aspx 1. Houston Texans QBp Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M I'm not buying the assumption that Houston is entertaining anything other than a quarterback at number one. They lost last year not only because of poor quarterbacking, but poor leadership. The did not go 2-14 last year because of a lack of defensive playmakers. I would be shocked if Houston does anything but take a quarterback they feel is a strong leader for the team, and think they would regret that decision for years. 2. St. Louis Rams (from WAS) WRf Sammy Watkins, Clemson While most seem to think the Rams would go with an offensive tackle or Clowney, I think it's clear that a true dominating number one receiver is what's missing the most on this team. The Rams line was still OK after Jake Long went down last year and his career is not over. St. Louis will be fine at OT and they have too much money tied up in Jake Long to reboot the position. Watkinsis the clear number one receiver available in the draft. Jeff Fisher would like to drop down and still get Watkins, but he lost out on the player he really wanted when he moved down in the 2012 draft and likely won't try to get too cute again. A possibility of a trade up from Cleveland exists, but two firsts and a fourth is a price the Browns might flinch at to move up two spots. 3. Jacksonville Jaguars QBp Derek Carr, Fresno State Gus Bradley has been trying to mask his giddyness about Carr since the Senior Bowl. Carr worked alongside Jimmy Garoppolo and David Fales under Bradley's eye that week and he clearly outshined all the QBs at the game. The Jags' staff went so far as to feed the NFL Networks' sideline reporter what I believe to be a fake playcall of a deep pass, then had Carr throw a WR screen (which had been a point of criticism all week on the Senior Bowl coverage). If Cleveland trades ahead of Jacksonville to select Carr, I believe the Jags will nab Teddy Bridgewater at 3, but like I said above I believe Cleveland will balk at the Rams' asking price. Jacksonville would like to move down and take Carr, but Carr has been linked too much to both Cleveland and Oakland for them to consider it. 4. Cleveland Browns QBm Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville While it may seem difficult for the Browns to take Teddy Bridgewater after his comments about having difficulty throwing a "cold ball", Bridgewater does display what GM Ray Farmer has said he values most in QBs, what they see and how they react in the five seconds leading up to the snap and what they see and how they react in the two and a half seconds after. While Carr and/or Manziel may be higher on their list, they are gone in this scenario. Bridgewater does fit the bill of a smart quarterback who can complete passes from the pocket and rolling out, a necessity for the reinstallation of a West Coast Offense in Cleveland. As the last top-tier QB available to start sooner rather than later, Cleveland plays it safe and snags Bridgewater despite Atlanta's offer to move up. 5. Oakland Raiders RE Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina Despite Oakland's needs at QB and WR, Clowney is just too good to pass up at this point. Justin Tuck hasn't been as effective in recent years and could even slide back inside to UT like his early days in New York, and LaMarr Woodley hasn't played defensive end since his days at Michigan. If Carr or Bridgewater were available, they may take one of them here, but reports are they are not interested in Blake Bortles and Watkins is already off the board. 6. Minnesota Vikings (from ATL) QBp Blake Bortles, UCF TRADE: MIN #8 and #72 for ATL #6 and ATL #147. Minnesota moves up to make sure they snag Blake Bortles ahead of Tampa Bay. They must come away with a new starting quarterback, and the idea of pounding teams with the combination of Bortles and Peterson is easy for football fans to get excited about. The Vikings have an extra third this year from Seattle, so it's easy for them to part with this pick to upgrade over Christian Ponder and Matt Cassell. 7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers SLB Khalil Mack, Buffalo Tampa needs a bevy of wide receivers, but the opportunity to snag Mack with All-Pro Lavonte David and stalwart Mason Foster is too good for them to pass up. At this point, none of the receivers or quarterbacks seem worth the pick and Mack to many observers would be the best player available. 8. Atlanta Falcons (from MIN) RT Jake Matthews, Texas A&M After losing out on Clowney, Atlanta moves back and grabs an extra third round pick while still snagging the best offensive tackle in the draft. Some might have Atlanta stay put and grab the next available pass rusher, but I think this move, collecting more ammo to move back up for a pass rusher, is the better play. 9. Buffalo Bills RT Greg Robinson, Auburn Buffalo would be ecstatic for Robinson to be available at nine. The power running game Buffalo could must with Robinson opposite Cordy Glenn would be devastating. 10. Detroit Lions SLB Anthony Barr, UCLA The Lions turn their weakest linebacking position into their strongest with the selection of Anthony Barr. Though Barr was primarily a penetrating edge defender at UCLA, he showed the ability to cover when needed. Barr will strengthen the Lions' run defense as well as add pass rush ability. 11. Tennessee Titans ILB C.J. Mosley, Alabama Tennessee is converting to a 3-4 defense this year under Ray Horton. Horton says he runs a multi-front defense, but his history shows he is a 3-4 coordinator. The Titans need an athletic coverage linebacker and Mosley fits that bill to a T. Seeking a trade-down here is tempting, as is cornerback with all of the options available, but Mosley is the best option to fill that particular spot in the draft by a wide margin and is a risk to be taken by the Giants and the Rams, who are the next two teams up. 12. New York Giants TE Eric Ebron, North Carolina The Giants take the top TE in the draft, Eric Ebron, at 12. Ebron is a special receiver and athlete and will add a dimension to the Giants' offense they've been lacking since the end of Shockey's heyday. 13. Chicago Bears (from STL) UT Aaron Donald, Pittsburgh TRADE: CHI #14 and #117 to STL for #13. Chicago parts with a 4th round pick to stave off Dallas' attempt to move up for the player they covet. Aaron Donald is a monster in the middle and Chicago didn't want to lose both Donald AND Henry Melton to the Cowboys. 14. St. Louis Rams (from CHI) FS Hasean Clinton-Dix, Alabama The Rams drop one spot and still nab the player they covet. They've got the top free safety and the top wide receiver in the draft to this point and picked up additional trade ammunition in the process. 15. Pittsburgh Steelers LT Taylor Lewan, Michigan The Steelers feel like they hit the jackpot as they have their choice of the top left tackle, cornerback, or nose tackle in the draft. Ultimately, their struggles to fill out the left tackle spot sway the decision to go with Lewan, who would have been in consideration for the top overall pick last year. 16. Dallas Cowboys NT Timmy Jernigan, Florida State After failing to land Aaron Donald, Dallas is relieved to have Timmy Jernigan available at 16. Melton and Jernigan are two strong terrors for the middle of their defense.
17. Baltimore Ravens CB Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State Ozzie Newsome has always let the draft fall to him, and at this point Justin Gilbert is too much of an impact playmaker to let pass by. Gilbert has a lot of the same physical attributes that drew Ozzie's attention to Jimmy Smith, but better field awareness and more of a knack for the big play. 18. New York Jets WRf Brandin Cooks, Oregon State Brandin Cooks is an electric receiver with great run-after catch ability. His knack for creating separation is ideal for the Jets' west-coast based offense and will provide a target that will help boost the confidence of their young quarterback Geno Smith 19. Miami Dolphins RT Zack Martin, Notre Dame Miami's reconstruction of their offensive line continues as they snag Zach Martin. Martin can play guard or tackle depending on what falls later in the draft, and who better to help the Dolphins forget the ugliness of last season than a tackle named Martin? 20. Arizona Cardinals SS Calvin Pryor, Louisville The Cardinals are happy to have the hard-hitting Calvin Pryor fall into their lap at 20. Pryor probably doesn't have the range to play free safety in the NFL, but he can be major support in the run game that San Francisco and Seattle bring. 21. Green Bay Packers WRf Marqise Lee, Southern California With Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson's contracts expiring at the end of the season, it's unlikely they will be able to keep both of them. Picking up Lee would keep Aaron Rodgers flush with talent at wide receiver, which has been Green Bay's formula for success for years. 22. Philadelphia Eagles NT Louis Nix, Notre Dame There is no doubt that Philadelphia is looking to add a receiver or two in this draft, but with Nix still on the board, the Eagles may be facing their one crack at a viable starting nose tackle in their 3-4 alignment. ODB is tough pass up here, but there are a bunch of talented wide receivers in this draft. 23. Cleveland Browns (from KC) CB Kyle Fuller, Virginia Tech TRADE: CLE #26 and #127 for KC #23. The Browns have 10 selections in the draft and have already secured their quarterback. With a couple cornerback-needy teams betwen them and their pick, they move up and snag Fuller. Fuller is the top man cover corner and has great toughness and tackling ability. 24. Cincinnati Bengals CB Darqueze Dennard, Michigan State The Bengals have been drafting corners for years but haven't quite hit on the right one yet. With the top safeties off the board and no centers worth a first round pick, Dennard is the pick here. Darqueze Dennard is considered by many to be the top corner in the draft. 25. San Francisco 49ers (from SD) WRf Odell Beckham Jr., LSU TRADE: SF #30 and #94 for SD #25. San Francisco sees an opening to move up and snag Odell Backham, Jr. and does it. Beckham, Jr. can play any receiver position and would provide a boost for a receiving group which could use an injection of new blood. With Boldin getting older and Crabtree's contract coming up, the 49ers need a receiver they can count on that won't cost them an arm and a leg. 26. Kansas City Chiefs (from IND) WRp Mike Evans, Texas A&M Mike Evans represents a big, strong complement to Dwayne Bowe. He is a freightening talent running after the catch and would pair well with the quick-hitting Alex Smith. 27. New Orleans Saints OLB Dee Ford, Auburn The Saints nab Dee Ford to build on their pass rush. Ford has the quickest first step in the draft and was a terror off the left edge during Auburn's run to the national championship game. He'll remain at LOLB opposite Junior Galette with the Saints. 28. Carolina Panthers LT Cyrus Kouandjio, Alabama I don't know all the details of Cyrus Kouandjio's medical, but he was considered a top 10 pick for a long time. After a poor combine showing and bad news about his physical condition, his reputation has plummeted. Leading into last year's draft, his ex-teammate DJ Fluker had an awful combine and many dropped him out of the first round, yet he ended up having the finest rookie season of any of the tackles last year. Carolina is in desperate need of a left tackle after the abrupt retirment of Jordan Goss, so they should be happy to find Kouandjio at this spot. 29. New England Patriots LE Kony Ealy, Missouri New England adds Kony Ealy, a big, strong, and fast pass rusher with their first pick who will push Rob Ninkovich immediately. 30. San Diego Chargers (from SF) OG Xavier Su'a-Filo, UCLA San Diego would be heartbroken to see Dennard and Fuller go right in front of them, but they pick up an extra third and Su'a-Filo, possibly the most athletic guard in the draftright in front of their division rivals. Left guard is a serious sore spot for San Diego, and big Xavier might be the best candidate for the position in the draft. 31. Atlanta Falcons (from DEN) OLB Demarcus Lawrence, Boise State TRADE: ATL #37 and #112 for DEN #31 After earlier picking up Minnesota's 3rd round pick, Atlanta is happy to part ways with their 4th round selection to fill their greatest remaining need of a pass rusher. Demarcus Lawrence is a player with an excellent first step, good closing speed and long arms. The Falcons envision him rattling the QBs of the NFC South. 32. Seattle Seahawks RT JaWuan James, Tennessee Seattle nabs the highly-athletic Ja'Wuan James to man the right side of their line. James is a rare prospect who has left tackle athleticism but most of his experience comes from the right side. This should be a great fit for Seattle, as they move Bowie inside to guard. Yes, it's unconventional but it was last year, too and I pretty much nailed it last year. Here's the link to last year's draft. http://www.cornerblitz.com/2013/Mocks/Final/Default.aspx
You clearly rank these QBs higher than most, or at least feel these teams are desperate to reach for one. Evans and OBJ are way too low. If the Jets pass on Mike Evans it would be a crime. Jernigan failed a piss test at the Combine, he's going to fall.
Yes to both, I think. The teams that I have taking QBs absolutely need a new QB. I think there's a big drop-off after the first three, and a lot of people think Bortles is in that group as well. If those teams pass on QBs in the first round, there is no guarantee they will be able to get one later, or would have to pay out the wazoo to move back up and get one. If they *all* pass on a QB, then yeah they will fall, but when each pick comes up, they don't know what will happen after them, and you only get one shot with that pick. If Jacksonville passes on Carr and takes Mack, then they are faced with the prospect of drafting Jimmy Garoppolo in the second round... maybe even moving up for him. Is that worth the risk? Trading up for Garoppolo and still having to start Chad Henne? I think the knocks on Manziel, Bridgewater, and Carr are all overblown. I'm not just QB happy... as you can see in my link to last year's draft, I only had Geno in the first. When it comes to QBs for me, there's less "ranking" and more "yes" or "no". Can this guy be the guy? Do I have a guy? Anyway, that's my thinking on it. I like some aspects of Mike Evans' game for sure, but too many of the balls he saw in college were contested... how much separation is he going to create? And while he pulled in a lot of those contested passes, he also was unable to pull in a lot of them. He'll need a very accurate passer I think to maximize his YAC. Cooks gives a bigger window to throw the ball with his separation skills, as long as your QB can place a pass to a receiver with a lot of speed. Geno was very successful with that at WVU. That was my thinking on that selection. When it comes to OBJ, I like him a lot as a receiver, but when I look at the depth of the receiving group, it's going to push guys down. Not just because other receivers get picked ahead of them, but because teams know they will have options later. On the other hand, looking at DTs or FS for example there are only a couple really good ones. So teams that might have an opening at WR and a position of less depth may think "I can get a pretty good receiver later, but this is my one shot at free safety." Eh, maybe. Not like the Cowboys haven't had successful players that do drugs in the past. It's still Jerry drafting and he's a beast of a DT. JMO.
Definitely outside the box and against the grain. You should send it to Mel Kiper Jr just to see if his head would explode.
"WRf". The only place I have seen this is on draft sites, and it appears to mean a feature receiver prospect. Does it correspond to a specific position in the WR corps? I've also seen "WRp" and "WRs", the latter appears to be slot receiver.
If it did, it would be contained in the shell on top... like a roasted marshmallow you let catch on fire.
It's a very interesting take on the draft. The question of whether teams will reach for QB's based on need is the biggest one going at the moment. I think some of the other calls are interesting also but everything else hinges on whether 4 guys who are not in the top 10 players in this draft all get taken in the top 10 because teams are desperate. All the teams that take those guys have another shot at a QB from 26 to 40. The question is whether they can wait on that pick or whether they have somebody they have to have right away.
More of a role... yeah, feature receiver, possession receiver, slot receiver. I also rank deep threat receiver. Of course, a team is never going to pigeonhole a guy to only one of these roles, but it's more about what a team is lacking and what they hope to accomplish with the player. I gave a little more of a description on my rankings pages for the different roles... http://www.cornerblitz.com/2014/Rankings/Post-Combine/WRf.aspx http://www.cornerblitz.com/2014/Rankings/Post-Combine/WRp.aspx http://www.cornerblitz.com/2014/Rankings/Post-Combine/WRs.aspx http://www.cornerblitz.com/2014/Rankings/Post-Combine/WRd.aspx
They may have a shot at a QB later, but which QB? If one of those teams pass, maybe the Raiders or Buccaneers draft one... or the Titans or Cardinals. Then whichever of those teams that passed are looking at Jimmy G or Zack Mettenberger or Aaron Murray who are sitting because of suck or injury. That's the thing for me... most people seem to feel taking a QB is very risky, but I think passing on a QB you think can do it is riskier. JMO... or thought process, anyways.
Great job, Steve, and as always an enjoyable read and well thought out. I agree regarding QBs, and I think all of those teams are desperate for QBs (or at least should be). There were surprises, but your rationale was always good. While Evans is a bigger target and most think the better prospect than Cooks or Beckham, I tend to be more like you and look at him skeptically. He is also pretty immature which could slow his development, and his YAC may not be so great in the NFL since he isn't that fast, quick or elusive. He may just wind up being a very good possession receiver like Landry, except taller, and a better Red Zone target. I also think that Cooks or Beckham are the best fits for the Jets at WR. They need speed on the outside and a play-making home run threat.
It's an interesting dilemma to be in come draft day. How many QB's is each of those teams going to have as draftable? What are the odds one of their guys slides through to the 26 or later? I guess I still see Bridgewater as the safest pick by a significant margin. He really feels like a Matt Ryan-level prospect. The other guys are all risky in one way or another. Carr played in a spread and he's 6'2". Bortles is kind of raw. Manziel is like a high stakes weekend in Las Vegas, you could come out flush or lying passed out in an alley somewhere missing your wallet. It would be hella fun to watch them come off the board in the top 8. Watching all the other teams in the top 15 or so suddenly reversing field and putting trade down sentiments on hold as all that top 10 talent flooded the draft.
