I certainly don't rate him highly because of his combine performance, I do because of his tape. He scored significantly better than Cooks in the poll, even going so far as 2 #1 votes. I know you don't agree but it does give more credibility to those who view Beckham as the better prospect. You know one thing you've never mentioned is how good the QB play at Oregon State was last year. Sean Mannion is a guy to keep an eye to be a first round pick next year, and is more developed than Zach Mettenberger. Mettenberger has great physical tools, but Mannion could be something special. He got a 3rd round draft grade from the draft advisory, but decided to return to school because another year preforming like he has can absolutely propel him to the first round QB possibilities like Mariota and Winston. Of course Cooks produced more, he had a better QB and was going against way worse defenses.
The one thing the Jets have in their favor is the new ST coach was at LSU, so he'll know about OBJ about as much as a lot of the coaches down there. If the Jets draft him, then that maybe means he put in a good word for him.
The Jets have had this really strong tendency to buy into the risers after the combine. Overall that tendency has really hurt the talent base and it's one of the reasons the Jets haven't had many top end performers over the last decade. When you buy into a combine riser what you usually wind up with is a decent player but not a star. Most of the stars are the guys everybody knew about going into the combine. A few of them are sleepers that fell. Often the reason they fell is somebody stole the buzz between the combine and the draft and left them down the queue a bit. Then they wind up as value picks while the riser winds up as a disappointment. Part of it is perception but the other part is that there is nothing a player can do at the combine that should really raise his stock. Rising because other people are falling is kind of natural but rising because you ran a fast 40 or looked good in the drills is mostly the effect of illusion. When the Steelers and the Lions started BLESTO in the 60's the purpose of the scouting organization was to cut through all the bullshit that college athletic departments were putting out there. They wanted accurate measurements of things like height and weight and arm length and stuff like that. The drills players are put through today are just ridiculous and do not correspond well to a player's ability to thrive at the NFL level. If you look at who actually does well in the combine drills every year there is almost a random correspondence between the drill results and the player's actual football ability.
Oregon State also plays a hybrid spread that ramps up the numbers some. Look, I don't disagree that Beckham is a decent prospect. I just don't see anything about his college performance, either in the numbers or in the context in which they were generated, that suggests he's going to be a star at the NFL level. I see Cooks as likely to be either a flanker or a slot receiver. I think he'll do well in either role but will probably be a star slot receiver in somebody's spread offense. Having him go to the Pats would really suck. I don't really see him as a split end because I think the better physical CB's in the NFL are going to have their way with him early on in press coverage and I don't know that he has the size or strength to deal with that as he develops. Steve Smith really was a very special receiver because even with a small frame he had multiple ways to deal with getting pressed. He was quick enough to get the first step on his man and he also was able to leverage out of the jam at times. Projecting Cooks to do that is dicey because most smallish receivers can't handle that situation well. In a nutshell, I think Cooks has more star potential than Beckham and so I would value him more from the average team's viewpoint. I'd value Lee more than either of them from the Jets standpoint because Lee is going to be able to play split end for the Jets. Kerley is already a good slot receiver and the Jets have Decker to play flanker. That makes Cooks less valuable to the Jets because he could well be redundant or make Kerley redundant if he can't play split end. It's certainly within the realm of possibility that Beckham will become a star split end but he has to get much better than he already is to make that happen. I just don't see how the Jets are going to guarantee that result. Getting somebody to transition to the NFL is tough enough. Getting them to raise their play level is basically a random event. Lots of people have tried to make Odell Beckham a dominant receiver already at LSU and he never got there. What are the Jets going to do to bring that out in the NFL?
So Santana Moss, Jonathan Vilma, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Nick Mangold, Darrelle Revis, David Harris, Dustin Keller, Muhammad Wilkerson, and Sheldon Richardson aren't top end players? All of them have performed at a top 5 level for their position for periods throughout their career, and all of them were drafted in the last decade. Others are still too young to tell. The Jets' main problem wasn't failing to recognize good talent, it was trading away draft picks and handing out bad contracts. You have to be able to draft that top 5 talent I just listed but draft important depth and role players with your other picks.
I believe Decker is ideal for split end because of his physicality, and Beckham would probably see more time as flanker. He is more physical than Holmes ever was but has refined route technique and enough speed to get deep. I think Beckham could play flanker or split end or slot, and if he is drafted he will play all three. Beckham's rise in value was not from his combine measurables in my opinion, but from his physicality on the football field, his elusiveness, his great hands, and most of all his refined route technique. I believe that LSU's reliance on a run first heavy/possession style game vs top NCAA defenses limited their use of Beckham. He was a successful player because of his physicality, but an NFL team is going to be able to get oh so much more out of his talents.
Wow Mayock is saying Lee is now a late round 1 early 2. His list is now: 1. Watkins 2. Evans 3. Beckham 4. Cooks 5. Benjamin 5. Lee
Wow. I can see Cooks and maybe Beckham, but I'd never put Benjamin over Lee. That said, I have a feeling Lee will be the 3rd wide receiver off the board. Hopefully, in my opinion, it's with the Jets.
Jets WR's drafted since 2001: Santana Moss, Jerricho Cotchery, Harry Williams, Brad Smith, Chansi Stuckey, Marcus Henry, Jeremy Kerley, Scotty McKnight, Stephen Hill and Jordan White. There's a reason the Jets WR corps has been really weak the last few years. There's a reason the Jets have made repeated trades and dipped into veteran free agency as often as they have. The scouting department can't find a WR if their life depends on it. TE's drafted since 2001: Chris Baker, Joel Dreessen, Jason Pociask, and Dustin Keller. Ditto for TE's. The three most successful picks in the era have been Santana Moss, Jerrico Cotchery and Dustin Keller. Both of the guys in the 1st round were trade ups to cherry pick a guy who turned out to be an average NFL WR or TE. Cotchery was a production guy in college (67 and 86 catches his last 2 years for 17 TD's) who fell to the Jets in the 4th round. He's a perfect example of what the Jets have been missing out on in general.
I have the feeling Lee will go earlier than expected also. I'm 50/50 on him making it down to the Jets pick at this point. If he'd run a faster 40 at the combine he wouldn't have made it out of the top 15.
I agree about Benjamin over Lee. That's absurd. I know I wouldn't put Benjamin over Mathews, and I'm not sure about puttin Benjamin over Robinson, Moncrief or Landry.
Honestly a major part of it is who you draft in the first round. The Jets WR's have actually been overall solid since before 2008, then we had Cotchery and Coles, in 2009 we had Cotchery and Edwards, in 2010 we had Holmes, Cotchery and Edwards, and in 2011 we had Holmes, Kerley and an underrated Plaxico Burress. So over that 4+ year span the Jets have had solid WR's, especially considering Dustin Keller has been in the lineup since 2008. You can supplement the WR corp with free agents, you just have to be smart about which ones. You're forgetting Kerley who was drafted under Tannenbaum and is a very similar player to the player you just said we are missing out on. A 5th round receiver who is reliable, usually gets open, usually gets the 1st down, and has the occasional big play. Depth is a problem the Jets are systematically eradicating across the board, and we got the top FA WR available. There are 2 black marks on the Jets recent draft history, and an ill perceived 3rd and 4th. The legitimate 2 are Vernon Gholston, an early first round draft bust, and Vlad Ducasse, a high upside project 2nd round bust. The other two are Kyle Wilson, a late first round pick who's value to our team is nearly equal to that of a starter, and Stephen Hill, another high upside project 2nd rounder. Unlike Ducasse, Hill has shown improvement over his first 2 years. There are major inconsistencies, yes, but this is still a kid learning. The Jets reached for him, it's true but 1 more year is needed before we can really determine how the pick turned out. If the Jets drafted WRs in the first round more often I'm sure we'd have a few good ones, but defense picks seem to really make the biggest impact year one.
i hate mike mayock, i always feel like he tries to be different. last year he had DJ Hayden over Dee Milliner, which was just crazy. any movement on boards that have happened over the past 2 weeks should be disregarded. these extra two weeks have been killer for the draft, i hate it
Bradwaysux thinks OBJ is a bust so clearly he's destined for greatness. agree, mayock is a cock. can't stand his crap.
They've been killer for fans waiting for the draft, every team in the league probably did a dance when they realized they had extra time to watch film.
All of a sudden, Beckham is like the next great sexy elite prospect. It's like one "expert" changes his rankings, and the rest just follow suit. I get why people are so high on him. But the guy had 1 good year of college production, whereas Cooks had a good 2012 and a stellar 2013. Also, Beckham racked up roughly 20% (6 rec, 204 yards, 2 TD) of his production beating up on Division 1-AA Furman. Against Alabama he posted: 3 catches 42 yards. Compare that Mike Evans vs. the Crimson Tide: 7 catches, 279 yards, 1 TD Based on what we're hearing, I'm also sort of surprised by the lack of strength / durability concerns on this guy, especially when you're talking the #10 to #20 range overall: 7 reps on the bench press. On tape, yes, he's blowing by people, but he also looks like a twig out there. I would have concerns about whether he could handle the physical part of playing at the next level. He also had some kind of recurring back injury he dealt with late this past season. You could say the same concerns are valid for Cooks. But he looks stronger to me than Beckham, and you can see on tape he is willing to at least mix it up a little physically. I also love that Cooks has never missed a game at any level.
Agree. In short, a very underwhelming WR. Problem is, no one who has seen film on OB will challenge the experts who lump him with IMO a lot more talented players. Fortunately, the Jets probably put a lesser value on him and won't jump through hoops to get him.
