I know most of you at TGG can't wait for the draft to start. Personally I cannot remember the last time I was this excited about the phenomenal opportunities the draft could provide for the Jets. So, just to keep our NFL draft juices going till the 8th I thought I would throw this up for your consideration . Assuming Idzik sticks to his mantra of selecting BPA particularly for the first round, what do you guys might guess Idzik's top secret BPA board and ranking of players might look like? Going into the 18th pick, depending on what's left on the board, what are the chances that we select something other than a WR? Call me crazy but as I see it, the Jets BPA ranking as we approach the 18th pick ( excluding some no brainers like Mack, Clowney, Robinson, Watkins and the like that will be long gone) could look like this. 1 - Taylor Lewan 2- Anthony Barr 3- Eric Ebron 4- Justin Gilbert 5- Ha Ha Clinton Dix 6- Odell Beckman 7- Darqueze Dennard 8- B. Cooks 9- Calvin Pryor 10 - M. Lee 11 - T. Bridgewater So if any of the top five fall to us we might take them before Beckman. And Beckman will be the choice over Cook with Lee a distant third. Personally I would be happy with any name on that list, particularly 1 through 6, but in my humble opinion contrary to popular demand, there is better than a 50-50 chance that our first pick will not be a WR. Can't wait to find out
It's interesting to think about but there's really no way of knowing either before or even after the draft. After last year they said that Milliner and Richardson was 1 and 2 on their board....suuuuuuuure. Every team says the same thing because you won't want to send the message to the player or the fans that you had to settle for 7th or 8th on your list. Anyway. It's kind of hard to gauge as we have no idea if they are going pure BPA or are going to weigh some of their reasoning on need as well. I think it will be a combination of both, as it should be. I don't think they will lock in on a WR at 18th even if it means picking a guy who is 30th on the board. However if at their pick the guy at the top of their board is not a position of need and a WR or CB or whatever they determine is a bigger area of need is two or three spots down I think they should take the guy who is a few spots down but a different area of the need. The real question is how far down do you go?
A couple things I took from the Idzik article in the NYT last year before the draft: "He joined Tampa Bay in 1993, about two years before McKay imposed what he called a “very simple” change to the way the team evaluated talent. Instead of seeking players with upside, with the potential to change the franchise, the Buccaneers started prioritizing players who had produced in college. In 1996, when Tony Dungy was hired, character assumed extra importance." (NOTE: McKay is Rich McKay, then GM of the Bucs and current President & CEO of the Falcons) "Graves said Idzik, above all, prized a strong defense and explosive, dynamic players on offense." "'We’ve all heard that term playmakers, but John really valued their importance,' Graves said." (NOTE: Rod Graves, now on the Jets staff, then VP of Football Ops in Arizona) "Like his colleagues, Idzik ignored concerns about Dunn’s durability and size — 5 feet 8 inches, 176 pounds — and instead prized his outstanding college career and strong character." Based on that background, this is how I believe Idzik would rank your list: 1 - Taylor Lewan -- if he falls you can't turn down a top notch LT 2- Ha Ha Clinton Dix -- best safety in the class 3- B. Cooks -- ahead of Lee based on being more explosive 4- M. Lee -- strong production with depressed value from down Jr season 5- Darqueze Dennard -- strong production against top competition, a technique guy 6- Anthony Barr -- Still learning the position (Upside guy) 7- Eric Ebron -- Improved a lot each year but still needs a lot of polish (Upside guy) 8- Justin Gilbert -- very athletically gifted player who needs technique refinement (Upside) 9- Odell Beckman -- Dynamic and Improved each year but only incrementally (Upside guy) 10 - Calvin Pryor -- he's a very well rounded safety who could contribute immediately...but doesn't seem like the BPA at 18 11 - T. Bridgewater -- not in the 1st
Great info. Thanks for posting it. I would be happy with any of the above players, except just like you I don't see us picking a QB in the 1st even if it falls(if it happens they might trade down a few spots). I keep hearing about Beckman lack of upper body strength so that does bother me some. I'm warming up more and more to the fact that Dix could be our guy if he falls to the 18th spot. But that is not very likely IMHO
When teams respond like that they are stating it from the position from where they are picking, Not that those 2 players were #1 & #2 on their board but #1 & #2 at the respective position from where the team was picking. So when the 9th pick came around Milliner was on top of their board as BPA & when the 13th pick came Richardson was on top of their board as BPA.
Now somebody put them in the order you really think the Jets would consider taking them as opposed to BPA and don't forget they have a mandate to win now. Here's my stab and I will only include those that I think have even a chance of getting taken. Ebron Beckam Dennard Cooks Barr Gilbert Clinton Dix
Don Am I assuming correctly you don't see M. Lee dropping to the 18th slot or you just would not pick him ahead of the names on your list. You might be right with your prediction, but something tells me the FO would have the safety higher than the CBs on the need list.
Thanks for posting the info. I hadn't seen that before. Great stuff. I like your ranking best. The only area I disagree might be T. Bridgewater. I think that all depends upon what Idzik thinks of Geno and what he thinks about Teddy. If they think Geno's 60% sure of developing into their starting QB for the next 10 years, then I agree they probably wouldn't take Bridgewater if he fell to them. If, OTOH, they think Geno's chances are 50-50 or worse, and they like Teddy, then I wouldn't be surprised to see Idzik take him if he falls. It could have been all rumor or media BS, but I remember reading following the draft last year that the Jets supposedly strongly considered taking Geno in the first round, and then were thinking about trading up in the 2nd to make sure they got Geno. IF that is true, then it either shows how much importance Idzik places on the QB position or how much he liked Geno. Even if it was the latter rather than the former, after having seen Geno the last year and getting feedback from MM and Lee, Idzik could have cooled on Geno's prospects and could be looking for his replacement.
Great idea for a thread. I like themorey's order better than yours. I definitely think that Cooks is higher on Idzik's board than Beckham because of production, Beckham's relatively weak upper body, and I think that Cooks is better and more versatile. I also would be a little surprised if Ebron is that high up on his board. I think the Jets need a true 2-way TE with prototypical size and would be very surprised if Idzik didn't think the same way. Ebron's not that fast, isn't that good of a blocker, there are some focus and work ethic concerns that I think should drop him down that list certainly below Dix and probably below Gilbert/Dennard/Cooks as well.
I am thinking he may not go until the bottom of the first round and you might be right about the safety first. I actually don't think they will take a CB until the 2nd or 3rd round unless they are in love with one of those two at 18.
NCJet. You might be right. I like his list as well. I thought it would be fun to generate something before the draft, not based on our best guess but rather by attempting to second guess Idzik and his staff BPA draft strategy. We could use it during the draft to bounce against the 18th selection. Depending on who is left standing on the board we could go best remaining and see if it comes close to matching Idzik's selection. It might tell us something more about his approach to the draft.
Exactly! I think it definitely can help shed some insights into how Idzik thinks, his priorities, and how he views things as compared with the media or ourselves. I was glad that you and themorey came up with a list. I'm not sure I could have. I had a very hard time trying to get the order in mind, had to think about it a bit, and yours and themorey's posts helped me. I hope others will post and should make it more fun/interesting. It might also be fun, albeit harder to put together a list for the 2nd round pick.
And for the second round pick a very amateurish BPA list I attempted to compile. Way over my league but here is a stab for fun. Sure you guys can straighten it out. Highly unlikely to be there but one could hope 1 J. Verret CB 2 M.Lee WR 3 C. Koundjaio OT 4 A. Robinson WR 5 D. Montcrief WR 6 J. Bitonio OG 7 K. Ealy DE May be..just may be our pick will be one of these: 8 J. Mathews WR 9 J. Attaochu OLB 10 M. Bryant WR 11 A. Seferian-Jenkins TE 12 K. Van Noy OLB 13 - K Benjamin WR 14 T. Niklas TE 15 T. Mason RB
Maybe I'm wrong, but it just seems the higher you pick, the more important BPA becomes. After 12-14 pics, the 'superstars' that would warrant selection over need have probably already been selected. 18th pic? I would think 'need' starts playing a bigger role than if we were picking in the top 5-10.
Actually when you talk about the 15-20 pick you start looking at guys that might have fallen a little bit from the 8-13 range so you might get the 10th player or better on your board at 18, picking near the middle is a gift and a curse.
I get that and yes, if a top 5-10 talent is still there at 18, get him. I think Geno was like that last year. But my point was the further down the draft, the more the players are likely to be 'grouped' vs a single superstar that you take no matter what. That's probably why Idzik drafts for 'need' further down in the draft b/c by then, the superstars are gone. That may be the case even at 18, who knows, and if so Idzik can bias his pick more towards need than BPA.
