Santana Moss had Reggie Wayne across the field from him at Miami. He was part of an excellent group of complimentary receivers. Brandin Cooks had Markus Wheaton in 2012 and was clearly the #2 in Oregon State's scheme. In 2013 he was the man. There's a difference.
that would be true, except that over their careers odb has more catches, yards, ypc, and one fewer touchdown than landry
Ok, so first of all, Landry actually has more TD's than Beckham by 3 not 1. 15 to 12. Secondly and more importantly, in 2011 Beckham had 41 catches and Landry had 4. Clearly Beckham was the guy that LSU saw as the better receiver as a freshman. This is understandable because Beckham is a fast guy and Landry is not and they're both about the same size. Then in 2012 a funny thing happened. Landry vaulted over Beckham in the pecking order and got significantly more catches and more TD's. His YPC wasn't great but he was the go-to guy that LSU was throwing the ball too when they needed to complete a pass. He caught 56 balls to Beckham's 43 that year and had 5 TD's to the 2 that Beckham had. So move forward to 2013 and once again the competition is open, because Landry clearly doesn't have the tools that Beckham has at his disposal. He didn't have a big year in 2012 either, he just beat out the season Beckham had. One of these guys is just a better physical specimen than the other. Beckham is faster and he jumps higher and he's just a better overall athlete. He's a no-brainer to beat out Landry as LSU's #1 WR. But... Landry is the guy who catches 77 passes and 10 TD passes last year. Beckham once again slides smoothly into the complimentary #2 role, his third year in a row being #2 to somebody. He catches 57 balls for 8 TD's. The real question to take out of your observations on their overall numbers is "why couldn't Odell Beckham take the #1 WR job at LSU and run away with it given his greater athletic prowess and his head start when the coaching staff decided he was better than Landry their freshman years?" The answer is likely to be that Beckham just doesn't have the mental makeup of a #1 WR. For whatever reason the ghost in his machine is a #2 WR. Jarvis Landry, who clearly does not have his physical tools has a #1 WR ghost living inside of him. He took less and made more of it and he took the load of being the go-to guy even though there was a better athlete playing opposite him. Taking a #2 WR with your 1st round pick is one of the most pitiful things that an NFL team can do. It's about as pitiful at taking a #2 CB. Not only did you take a player out on the edge, who has less overall impact than a player closer to the middle of the field but you didn't even get a particularly good player with the pick. I'm hoping all the Beckham talk is just a smokescreen. The media hasn't known anything else the Jets were doing this off-season, hopefully they're all wrong again on this one. There's a real chance that the pick is the difference between a Super Bowl in a few seasons and another flat 10-6 year that gets stopped short of that.
It could also be that Beckham faced more double teams or the higher profile CBs than Landry. I'm not saying that I know that for a fact, I definitely do not, but it is a possibility. With Revis we always but him on the other team's best WR and the #2 then would likely get more targets, yards and TDs but that doesn't mean they were the #1. Maybe at least part of the reason Landry got more catches is because the opposition considered him less of a threat leaving him open more than OBJ. If someone can confirm or refute please do as this is just pure speculation on my behalf.
It doesn't matter who the other team was trying to cover. A #1 WR can't be locked down by coverage consistently. He still is the leading WR on his team. He catches more balls and has more TD's (most of the time) than the other WR's on that team. That's why he's a #1. All you have to do is look at the numbers to understand that Odell Beckham Jr is a #2 WR. That's where he stood for virtually his entire career at LSU. Did people spend more resources trying to cover him? It doesn't matter if they did. He was unable to beat the coverage for #1 WR numbers. That's not going to change for the better when he gets to the NFL. People do occasionally outplay their college numbers in the NFL. You can't draft them based on that prediction though because many more people are exactly who they seemed to be in college. In 2015 if Cooks or Lee catches 90-100 balls nobody will be surprised. If Beckham does that it's going to be "OMG, where did that come from?"
I hate the idea of Beckham the more I think about it. If you're not indisputably the best WR on your own college team, then I'm not interested early in the draft.
Idzik prioritizes production, playmaking ability, and character. OBJ has 2 of the 3 in spades but Cooks has all 3, which imo puts him higher on Idziks board. Ftr....I'd prefer Lee over Cooks and Beckham but would be happy with any of the 3.
You make a reasonable argument, I just don't think a guy's fate is determined this early. There are guys who don't even get drafted that end up as pro-bowlers or guys that do get drafted in the 6th or 7th round who people figure will be out of the NFL in a year or two that end up having pretty decent careers. The other thing is if Landry is so vastly superior to OBJ why is he consistently ranked below him by virtually every expert? Is it just a measurables thing?
I didn't say Landry was superior to Beckham. I said he had the #1 WR job at LSU when he and Beckham were both fighting for that role. I think Lee and Cooks are superior to Beckham because they both have been the #1 WR and they both have had spectacular success in that role. My discontent with the idea of taking Beckham with the 18 is that I do not believe he's going to be a #1 WR in the NFL and I think you have to be trying to get that with your #1 pick. I think the experts have Beckham rated above Landry for the same reason the LSU coaching staff had Beckham rated above Landry in 2011. Speed and athletic ability are things that you can objectively measure and Beckham has both in greater amounts than Landry. It's harder to measure a player's heart and where he ranks himself in life and what he is willing to do to be at the top. I think Landry has those qualities over Beckham. That's why the slow guy who can't jump was LSU's leading receiver over the fast guy who can. I don't think either of them is likely to be a #1 WR in the NFL but if I had to get a #1 WR and those guys were the only two choices I'd take Landry over Beckham. Again, I wouldn't take either of them expecting a #1 but if I had to choose I'd take the guy who has already been there over the guy who couldn't beat him out to get get there.
Beckham could only muster 7 reps on the bench press @ the combine. I know guys can always get stronger in the weight room. But that would concern me if we're talking the #18 overall pick: Can he handle the rigors of the position physically at the next level? He's also apparently had to deal with a kind of recurring back injury in college. Back injuries seem to have a way of lingering / recurring. http://theadvocate.com/sports/lsu/7674912-123/lsu-notebook-odell-beckham-jrs The route running, explosiveness, hands are all great. But he sort of looks like a twig out there.
When I look at OBJ I see Emmanuel Sanders 2.0. Cooks on the other hand has potential to in the same class as Desean Jackson. Either way I wouldn't take either at 18 although I wouldn't be upset if they did.
This is an irrelevant question. Guys can look great on tape and then at the end of the day (or the 3 year career) you look back at their numbers to see what all that looking great did for them. You don't get anything in the NFL based on style. They don't give you style points that help your team win. I don't care how good Beckham looks on tape, there are better prospects than him, players who made more meaningful contributions to their teams in college and are likely to make more meaningful contributions in the NFL, who will be available at 18. This is a deep draft. Taking somebody because he looks good on tape over somebody who actually produced well on the field is a recipe for disaster. It's a Dewayne Robertson level mistake.
interesting perspective. I'm not a big believer in the #1 WR moniker. What i like in Beckham is his ability to high point the ball, his speed, the big hands, and his ability to return kicks. Remember reading somewhere how good return abilities translate well to playing in space in the WCO (but forget where i read). What i am wary about is having very little production in certain games, lots of production in others. As i am a bigger supporter of production over potential for 1st rounders, this does give me some pause for concern. that being said, what is your opinion on Matthews? he was by far the main threat for opposition to shut down, and yet he still produced. He has the production and the experience, and has done it with 3 different mediocre QB's in the best conference. He also has much better size than the prospects we are discussing, and while not a burner, has good speed. Personally i think he is a better prospect than Lee, compares favorably to Beckham (although not a returner), much different player than Cooks so hard to compare there. I'm surprised he isn't mentioned more as a potential 1st rounder. I don't think the BPA at #18 will be a WR. If the scouts like a few of these guys, but aren't convinced any will be dominant, trading down to a later first round pick could be a good situation. One of them will be there, and for me, I've been leaning towards Matthews.
Matthews is one of the 6 high-profile #1 WR's available this year. I wouldn't mind if the Jets traded down some and wound up with him. Watkins, Evans, Lee, Cooks, Matthews and Robinson are the guys who you could take with the hope of getting a high-impact #1 WR out of the draft. Moncrief, Latimer, Landry and Adams are the guys you could look at as capable of being a #1 because at some point they have fulfilled the role although there are some real questions about whether they can do it at the NFL level.
Ahh yes..the truth is in the rub. Wayne/Moss WERE part of an excellent group of complimentary receivers. Exactly the type of receiving group the Jets should be trying to build. In the way you define your "#1 WR" , There is only 5-6 of those WRs in the entire league.1 maybe 2 in this draft.Yes it would be GREAT to have one of those. But the supply is low for those types. As the game expands into more of a passing league featuring match-ups..it becomes more important to have more many good pieces over having one or two guys carry the load. Odell Beckham IS a limited player in some regards. He's more of a basketball player type with a vertical game.He's not gonna be great over the middle. Maybe he only gets you 4 catches a game.But those 4 catches will be for 100 yds...w/ likely a TD thrown in. Perhaps even a bigger kicker return.Making him an All purpose yards candidate. In today's NFL that's a first round pick. Yeah..maybe he's more of a #2 on your receptions list..but he can make a big difference on the scoring summary. I'd prefer Cooks over Beckham b/c I think he brings a different element to the offense.I happened to think Cooks ability to create w. his speed & change of direction would give this offense an instant boost
If Cooks is there at 18 and we pass on him, I am breaking my TV. Simple as that... Guy is going to be a fucking matchup nightmare in the NFL.
