No, man. I don't care who's on the board. That's not enough. Near the last pick in the 2nd round to jump from 30 to 18? It's like asking whether you'd do it for the Texans 3rd rounder (65 overall). When you trade down you need to fleece the other team Belichick-style.
You can fleece people in the first few picks of round 1. After that your not fleecing anyone who has half a brain .... It will go off of the value chart (or some version of someones value chart) - and the #30 & #61 picks are worth MORE than the #18 overall. That said I do get not wanting to drop out of 18. My opinion though - the more I look at it - is that in this particular draft its a no-brainer to pull the trigger on the trade (that is not real .... yet).
It might be worth it according to some chart. I don't think I'd pull the trigger on that unless I could extract more. You can assume a team calling you to trade up feels at least some level of desperation to grab a player it covets. I would consider a deal like that during the draft but not before, because you never know who can fall. If by some Aaron Rodgers type miracle, Mike Evans is sitting there @18 and you already traded out....
This is where we differ on our opinions. I see 4 or 5 receivers that are first round talents and one I think has dropped from most ranking sites for reasons that won't matter come draft day. Those being Beckham, Cooks, Lee, and Montcrief for certain, there are a couple receivers I could make the argument for being the 5th guy on that list (Matthews being one of those, but he's been dropping down the boards lately and may be an absolute mid round steal, like Jarvis Landry). of the 4 I find Montcrief the most intriguing of the group, he's the tallest at 6-2, he's the 2nd fastest 40 time of the 4 behind Cooks, He's got reliable hands, and at 221 he's a bit of a bruiser as well. That said, I'd be perfectly fine with any of those 4, and maybe a 5th, in the first round and at least one of them will be on the board in the 23-28 range. (edit) and by first round talent I mean first round talent that also fits for the Jets. The NFL today is all about creating mismatches and matchup nightmares. You can negate a speed guy pretty much by putting a safety over the top. It's much harder to contain a guy who can go short, deep, or whatever.
We don't have to agree. We can agree to disagree. I like Moncrief and Mathews a lot, but don't see either of them as worth of a 1st round pick or anywhere as good a fit for the Jets as Cooks, Beckham and Lee. I also like Davante Adams a lot and the Robinson kid may be a decent fit too.
Thats' the fun of it all, no one will know who was right and who was wrong till 3-4 years down the road. After all, if anyone on this board was very frequently right about who would be best players out of the draft (excluding the most obvious ones of course) we'd have jobs in the NFL
Not true, we know Richardson was the right pick last year and there are plenty of picks that you know right away on. If you are waiting to see what they are 3-4 years down the road then 99% of the time they were the wrong pick to begin with.
This is definitely true for individuals. If the jury is still out on a 1st round pick after 3 years you totally blew the pick. They're 3/5's of the way through their cheap rookie deal and you still haven't seen a payoff. I'd argue that for many positions if you haven't seen major results by year 2 you blew it. In terms of assessing an entire draft I don't think 3 years is out of line. If you got a couple of immediate producers out of the draft you probably broke even at worst. Then the question is how the other picks round into place over the next few years. A team that gets 4 producers out of every draft will tend to be deep and talented over time. A team that gets 2 or less will tend to crumble. Hitting on your 2nd and 3rd or 4th round picks gives you some leeway in seeing how the 1st ultimately turns out. You still need to hit most of your 1sts but if you are hitting on the other early picks it gives you some rope to work with. The question is where things stand each year as you assess how vital it is to retain the players coming off their cheap rookie deals. If you have no choice in the matter due to poor drafting then you're doing something wrong and probably paying most of the players you re-sign too much as a result.
Mid round picks like #18 usually happen right before the pick is on the clock or while that team is on the clock. The Jets will most likely entertain calls but I doubt they would trade down if a prospect like Evans is falling that far.
Lets start off with first rounders who ever make even just one probowl, not a lofty expectation for a first rounder somewhere in his career. Only about 1/3 of first rounders even get there once. Only 17% have made multiple probowl's....so only about 17% of first round picks are what you can term game changers. In the first round about 1/2 of all prospects drafted never come close to first round expectations. And a lot of people were up in arms about the Richardson pick last year. But back to the main point, if we on this board were remotely good at being right the majority of the time we'd have jobs in the NFL. We're fans, we have our opinions, some will be right, some will be wrong, only time will tell. Additionally, one year does not a career make. The league is filled with one year wonders, not to say that Richardson is a one year wonder by any means, but the truth is we won't know if he is or isn't until 3 years or so in to his career. It takes more than 1 good year to be an elite player.
If Evans falls to 18 and the jets trade down I'll break my TV, Radio, Computer and anything else that connects me to the outside world.
Richardson made an impact right away which was a result of his skill that was recognized. It was not lucky he produced and 3 years later might be injured. If the Jets get in the playoffs and win a SB we will be thanking him plus others. We have not gotten an elite player in years. Meanwhile, crosstown, the Giants manage to win 2 SB. We need a Victor Cruz ,not necessarily an elite player though that would be nice. Like you said time will tell.
Not saying that Richardson was a fluke in year one, not by any stretch. Just saying you don't know for certain till a couple years down the road. The Cruz thing is a perfect example, he went undrafted. to me in this years draft there's Watkins and Evans and then a dropoff then the next 5-7 WR's are all more or less even, or not separated by a lot.
I'm thinking Cleveland might be the team to trade down with. Maybe pick up thier early third rounder in addition to #26. everyone knows if Cleveland doesnt pick a QB at 4 they need one at 26 and will be trying to get in front of them. If someone dros to 18, they will want to be there.
Exactly. And our opinions are nothing more than educated guesses, some more educated than others, but nothing like real NFL FO personnel. _
That's a good example of the kind of trade that would benefit the Jets if none of the elite prospects makes it down to 18. I think one or two of those guys will drop though, especially if the QB's go early. It's almost like a perfect situation, because if the QB's go early the Jets get somebody really good at 18 but if they don't then people are calling the Jets asking for the 18.
Well you could make an argument that 3/4 of fans are smarter than a couple of teams personnel departments, the Jags come to mind..so does Oakland the last few years (edit, or at least couldn't be much worse).
Its always fun when someone "guesses" right and has to pat themselves on the back like they had some great insight/knowledge. Good times!
I don't disagree that there aren't "smarter" fans out there, and hard as it is to believe, maybe even some here But there is no one here, or in the general fandom that has more information and access to informaton than professional NFL scouting departments and front office personnel. And they are less emotional about it. We live and die by our teams and we make decisions that ultimately have no impact on reality, so if WE make wrong choices, we just go home, have a beer and wait for spring training. If THEY make mistakes, they get fired. Yup. The funny (not the haha funny, that sad sort of funny) thing about it is, those posters that GUESSED right really think they actually KNEW something. 50% of the people know TO A CERTITUDE that Manziel is going to bust, 50 % know that he's going to be a stud. He's either going to bust or become a player and the folks who guessed right will proclaim--"I KNEW it!!! See?!? Didn't I TELL you?!?" _
