It was widely expected that the Jets would target both WRs and CBs in free agency, and they were capable of signing both Decker and Verner if they wanted to. Every other team surely knew these things, so an inquiry about Verner designed to act as a "smokescreen" while they pursued Decker doesn't seem very likely. It seems far more likely that they expressed interest because, ya know, they had interest. The fact that Wilson is a premier slot corner, as you claim, is unrelated to the Jet's ability to field two quality starting CBs this season. I don't doubt their ability to get solid play at the slot CB position. The fact that he has struggled every time the Jets have tried to move him outside is relevant, which is why I chose to focus on that aspect. I didn't overlook the fact that the Jets front 7 might improve a bit, I just don't think that they are so close to being a dominant pass-rushing unit that the mild/moderate improvement you can expect is going to get them there. A dominant run stuffing unit isn't going to mask deficiencies in the secondary very effectively against top passing teams. I didn't mean that every one of the Jets secondary players is bottom of the league talent-wise. I meant that as a whole, the vast majority of teams have superior proven talent in their secondary. You wrote: I'd like to see the rankings of which defenses had the highest number of total possessions against them. I bet the Jets have one of the highest number of opposing possessions, yet still rank highly in most of the major statistics because they were able to limit each opponents possession. Even if you make a defense go 3 and out or punt, if your offense goes 3 and out your defense is just going to face even more snaps. The Jets didn't have one of the highest number of opposing possessions, they were tied for the 15th/16th most, which is about as close as you can get to average without hitting the nail directly on the head. And saying that the Jets defense was excessively tired because they had to play 1.005 drives for every 1 that the average team played, which corresponds with 3 seconds per game, just shows how desperate you are to make this argument happen despite how little validity there is to it. What the hell does this even mean? Yes, average number of drives can be affected by outliers. So can rank. Which rank isn't affected by outliers? If a team faces 800 drives in one game, that is certainly going to affect their 'total drives faced' ranking. It is also going to affect their 'drives faced per game' ranking (which will be exactly the same since NFL teams play an equal number of games). I have no clue where you were trying to go with this, but you're clearly wrong. A team that ranks higher than 16 other competitors in a field of 32 by any measurement can be considered "above average" in that area (saying "better than the median average team" would be more descriptive, but either one is still correct). A team that allows fewer yards (or points, or whatever) to opponents than the league-wide mean average can be called "above average" too. If I wrote anything that contradicts this basic system, please point it out to me, but I'm nearly certain I didn't.
Dude.. You are struggling to make this sound like a legit concern. It's not. I am in the draft forum with the assumption that I don't have to go into grave detail to the extent of making sure that I list the players prior school verbatim. I am here to talk about the draft, not to make sure that I hold everyone's hand to look up information about a specific prospect. Now I understand that ppl come here to educate themselves on prospects because not everyone can watch every prospect that are eligible for the draft, but if you think a detail that minor is something that needed to be argued, is ignorant. You knew what I meant and anyone that had ZERO clue about the guy, would know what Michigan program I was referring as the went along in this thread. They also would've likely went on to research this prospect on their own and would've understood my Michigan reference as well. So your point in turn truly on shows that you are completely anal. Also. You usually only say your welcome when you educate someone through some form of argument. You did not educate, only made my point for me. So in that regard. Thanks.
There is absolutely know way that a NFL Scout will only look at 3 tapes of a prospect that is graded out that highly, they will watch every single piece of tape that the kid has on him. That is what they are assigned to do, that is what they are paid to do. I understand this is a hobby, as it is mine, but I can watch a player and get a sense of an opinion. In this case, I have a very strong opinion about this kid and I think he is going to be an absolute stud. ..but, they are opinions. Last time I was wrong about a player, was just last year. I thought Keenan Allen was going to be a complete bust and that Justin Hunter would be the top WR in last years draft. I was wrong. So, it happens. I tend to think I'm right a lot more than I'm wrong though. Your argument I respect. I just don't agree completely. PI's are a factor in any ball game, but they happen to everyone. Dennard plays with a lot of technique, a lot of that is learned through other successful CB's in the league and through coaching. Revis always looked grabby but his technique is so good, he got away with a ton of stuff. Dennard is the exact same in that regard, at least that is my opinion. That factor still should'nt be the factor in my eyes on who is better. You look at an overall body of work, who is visually the better prospect? What does the tape tell you? Everyone will see things differently. I like Fuller a lot too, I think that there is a significant drop in skill after the top 3 are gone. I just think Dennard is in his own tier. Kyle Wilson just has terrible technique on the outside, he is also outmatched on the outside. He just can't keep up from an athletic stand point to me. Wilson is always 2-3 steps behind his outside guy, that wasn't the case for Dennard in college. So it can be correcting, it can be honed. Some of that is by design as well, judgement things, some of them will be poor judgement calls, but if your overall body of work and impact outweighs a PI here or there, then it is worth it. Dennard doesn't have trouble locating the ball, Maybe you watched one or two plays for an example but he is very consistent and that is not something that I seen often in his game at all. Fuller and Dennard were good at locating the ball and having really high passes defensed. I don't know the exact numbers or who was better, I will look after this but I know they both ranked high in that category. Anyway.. You have valid points, I just think that Fuller has more flaws to his game. I also think they will both be good NFL pros at the next level too. I just think Dennard is worthy of a top 10 selection. I can't say that about Fuller or Gilbert.
Sort of in line with the CB dilemma: what if instead of using a high pick on a CB we used it on a safety? One of Clinton-Dix or Pryor should be available to us at 18, plus there is still Bucannon and Ward that will likely be around in the second (although I think FS would be a better fit for us right now). I think you are more likely to get a good CB in the 4th or 5th or even 6th round than you are a safety. You could improve the secondary and pass defence and get two guys that can probably contribute. The CB might have to share duties with Walls and Wilson and whoever survives camp but not every pick has to come in and play 90% of the snaps from day one. Plus we are pretty bad at safety, especially FS, at the moment. Would be good to have a strong investment in that position.
In a given statistic, the average is effected by the numbers themselves, whereas rankings are simply the numbers listed in a row. It's basic math, think back to mean, median, mode. Say you have 5 teams who each are represented by a number in a given statistic, like points scored. For simplicity's sake, I'll use single digits. Say points scored for each of the 5 teams are 1, 2, 2, 9, 10. The average of the points scored is 4.8 points, but the team in the middle scored only 2 points and are thus not equal to the average. The same stands true when you say the team listed at 15 or 16 out of 32 represent the average. That is not true, they represent the median. You are incorrectly acting as if these statistics are the same thing. Another one of your ways of "simplifying" that is actually just inaccuracy. No matter how many points the best team scored, it does not effect their ranking, they are still ranked #1, and the team in the middle is still ranked #3. The more points the best team scores however, the more it effects the average. This is why you are inaccurately mixing statistics. Without actually looking at the stats, just because the Jets rank #15 does not mean they are average in any way. Theoretically they could be both, but you are mixing the stats as if they mean the same thing. I'm done debating with you because I can see this is just going to be an endless cycle of you making an invalid argument and me explaining things to you. EDIT: By the way, you seem to say "I didn't mean" a lot in your responses to me. I think the whole thing would be significantly sped up if you actually just said what you meant. For instance, if you didn't mean the Jets have league bottom talent across the secondary, you probably shouldn't have said it. That way, you don't have to make another post saying you didn't mean it, which I will then proceed to ridicule anyway.
Okay, I guess I was thrown off by the fact that you were nitpicking my statements without even being correct in your nitpicking. Median is a type of average https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average: In colloquial language average usually refers to the sum of a list of numbers divided by the size of the list, in other words the arithmetic mean. However, the word "average" can be used to refer to the median, the mode, or some other central or typical value. In statistics, these are all known as measures of central tendency. Thus the concept of an average can be extended in various ways in mathematics, but in those contexts it is usually referred to as a mean (for example the mean of a function). http://dictionary.reference.com/help/faq/language/d72.html: Mean (or arithmetic mean) is a type of average. It is computed by adding the values and dividing by the number of values. Average is a synonym for arithmetic mean - which is the value obtained by dividing the sum of a set of quantities by the number of quantities in the set. An example is (3 + 4 + 5) ÷ 3 = 4. The average ormean is 4. Two other common forms of averages are the median and mode. The median is the middle value of the set when they are ordered by rank - or the point in a series of numbers above and below which is half of the series. An example would be: The median income of a four-person family in Connecticut is $82,517. The mode is the most frequent value in a set of data. If you had nine students taking an exam and the scores were: 91, 84, 56, 90, 70, 65, 90, 90, 30 - then themode is 90, the most common score. The median (middle) score is 84. When an NFL team is ranked better than 16 other teams at something, they are better than the median average (which is determined by taking the mean average of the 16th and 17th ranked teams), and therefore it is correct to call them "above average". Most people wouldn't find it too confusing when someone lists rankings, then follows up by casually saying a team performed "about average" based on those rankings, but apparently I found the one fucking guy in a million who needs additional clarification to follow along. What I wrote wasn't incorrect or confusing or dumb. You just thought you saw an opportunity to look intellectually superior to me by calling me out on statistical terms that you clearly don't even understand, and instead just came off looking desperate and pathetic for reducing an argument about football to condescending remarks about terminology, all the while being completely wrong. Let me give you a simple example: "Across the country, salaries are decreasing." Would you interpret this to mean that every single person in the country has a decreasing salary? No, at least I hope not. In my statement before, I meant exactly what I said. As a whole, the quality of the Jets secondary players should be ranked near the bottom of the league. The reason I am repeatedly clarifying myself is because I'm a nice guy, and your interpretation skills are lacking.
You got me on the technicality, apparently my high school only taught things in colloquial terms. Anyway, enough of what you wrote aside from that was completely mistaken that this does not redeem you. It doesn't change the fact that before this the only thing I was mistaken about was calling the Jets defense a top 10 defense when they were in fact a top 11 defense. You've "simplified" contracts to the point of total inaccuracy, "simplified" the CB position down to basically saying any CB should be able to play in any system, and "simplified" the Jets secondary to being devoid of talent. I admit I was incorrect on this technicality, which colloquially was correct anyway. I maintain that most of what you've said through this entire argument has been shoddily put together at best. The truth is that despite my mistake about labeling the Jets defense as a top 10, there is not a significant difference between a top 10 defense and a top 11 defense, especially when the difference was a grand total of 1.5 yards per game, and the point I was making at the time stands in that adding a rookie CB in place of Cro's performance in 2013 will not likely make much of a difference. You've proved that the Jets were one overall ranking below top 10, and that the word average can technically (but not colloquially) include both mean and median. I've proved you've consistently made incorrect statements about contracts, scheme fit for CB's, and numerous other exaggerated and "simplified" claims throughout this entire debate. The fact that you think your questioning Bill Belichick's strategies is legitimate is perhaps the funniest thing about all of this, although you thinking somehow guaranteed money is the only part of a contract that matters is a close second. You've managed to make two small points over me, but you've lost the argument by a landslide, and been embarrassed in the process.
This is perfectly representative of how you like to"argue" your points. You can't even begin to form a compelling argument that the Patriots wouldn't have benefitted tremendously from having a single quality depth player at DT last season (which is what I originally argued), so you distract from the issue by touting Belichick's resume and insulting my knowledge and intelligence instead. I suppose it makes sense that you support Idzik's decision to stay put at CB throughout free agency if you are against questioning or criticizing professionals as a general rule. I guess in your mind it isn't even a topic worth contemplating.
Idzik's first draft (with the previous regime's scouting personnel) he picked up 8 players (including chris ivory because they traded a 4th for him). Out of those 8, 6 were starters by year end. One was a legit DROY candidate. I trust Idzik and his team until they give me a reason not to.
Not sure...i thought I remembered reading that after the draft Idzik was replacing some portion of the scouting staff with his own guys but I might have been sniffing glue.
Bradway is still head of the scouting department, but the truth is we have mostly drafted solid players even under Tannenbaum. Sure we've had a couple busts, but everyone does. Under Tannenbaum and Bradway we drafted Revis, Harris, Keller, Mangold, Ferguson, Brad Smith, Leon Washington, Greene, Wilkerson. All of these players ranged from very good to solid role players. I actually think we have good talent evaluation, because I promise, every team drafts busts occasionally. The real reason Tannenbaum's regime went so sour was the constant trading away draft picks, whether it was to trade up or get vet players, and the big contracts he handed out that went bad. The lack of later round picks ruined the depth of the team, and stupid moves like Sanchez's poorly timed extension and the Tebow trade had nothing to do with Bradway or the scouting department. I think we have actually assembled an excellent trio in Bradway, Ryan, and Idzik, because the patience that Idzik has shown will benefit this team.
1. The Patriots have the ability to both game plan and call games like no other, which is why Belichick wins so many games. He has the craziest understanding of when and how to call a play, change the tempo, and just how to crush an opponent's soul during a game. His understanding of how to utilize different players skills is beyond excellent, and he has Tom Brady. If you're trying to tell me 1 single depth DT would have been the difference between winning the AFC CG, I will tell you that you are very mistaken. The Pats were hit with a number of injuries last year, including Vince Wilfork who has been a portrait of health until this year. Belichick didn't feel the need to go out and add a DT, because he knows what he can do even with a limited roster. In 2011 he had the worst statistical defense in the NFL for at least most of the year, yet they still went to the Super Bowl (beating up the Jets' offense on the way). When Belichick has a flop season, I'll begin questioning his decision making. 2. I'm not universally against criticizing professionals, but Belichick is hardly the average professional. As far as questioning Idzik, I've personally felt that I've seen the logic in his moves since just after the draft last year, and you probably don't know this but in February I started a thread in which I basically predicted all of the personnel moves the Jets proceeded to make with accuracy. I study the roster moves, contracts, and player evaluations along the way, and try to understand them. I try to see where something might go wrong, or look to see what went wrong in the past. I feel that I understand why he is doing what he is doing, but only more time will tell if I am as correct as I was before. I am not questioning Idzik because I think that I understand what is going on, whereas you should not question Belichick because I don't think you really know what's going on combined with the fact that a guy like Belichick has far too much of a resumé to be questioned by someone who understands as little as you. Your contract argument shows you have no clue how the front offices operate, and I really don't think you understand scheme on an intricate level either.
This thread? (http://forums.theganggreen.com/threads/offseason-direction.80283/) Lol, thanks for bringing this up. It just makes my argument even stronger. "Our secondary is clearly our weakest defensive corps, and it is likely to see the most change this offseason." "I foresee Cro being cut and re-signed or signed to an extension that spreads his money out over another couple years." "If I had my ideal situation, positionally we'd look like: CB: Antonio Cromartie, Dee Milliner, Kyle Wilson, Louchiez Purifoy (3rd) Ellis Lanskter S: Dawan Landry, Antonio Allen, Josh Bush, Ed Reed" Two months ago you seemed to agree with my current line of thinking that the Jets should have signed a CB with starting experience such as Cromartie (or Revis in another thread) and a rookie. Now you have done a complete 180 and claim that this line of thinking stems from a "lack of understanding of the Jets' roster" and argue that Darrin Walls (who you didn't seem at all interested in at the time), a rookie, and a couple other lower tier additions are enough. Also, saying that you "basically predicted all of the personnel moves the Jets proceeded to make with accuracy" is a huge overstatement. The two significant moves that you did get right (Vick and Decker) were predicted by a million other people as well. They were hardly unique predictions. And furthermore, you threw a bunch of other shit against the wall (Schaub, Matt Moore, Maclin, Sanders, James Jones, Britt) en route to getting those predictions right and you whiffed on some others as well (Cromartie, Howard, re-signing Walls).
-First of all I didn't whiff on Howard, Oakland signed him to a monster contract the Jets had no intention of matching. The Jets wanted Howard and were in contract talks with him, but Oakland overpaid. They instead went for a similar player in Breno Giacomini, but who came at a significantly reduced rate. -Second, Maclin signed before FA began, and thus the Jets never had a shot at him. The Jets instead signed another offensive weapon in Chris Johnson, who was not considered a lock to be released until well after free agency started. If Maclin had been re-signed before I wrote this, obviously I wouldn't have listed him. At the time, information surrounding legal issues and the unlikely return of Mike Goodson had also not been released yet. The pre FA signing of Maclin by the Eagles and details of Goodson's legal issues resulted in the fact that Chris Johnson was the best offensive playmaker fitting for the Jets. Notice I specified Maclin should get a 1-year prove it deal, which he did, just in Philly. -At the time I was operating under the assumption that Cro would be able to successfully recover from his injury, which I was sure of by no means, and I specified that in the post. The small contract Cro got is indicative that most teams were very concerned about his injury. I also had not done very much research on the draft yet as I stated. The availability of numerous quality corners was something I was not aware of yet, something which I then researched and I no longer feel adding a free agent corner is extremely important. Instead of overpaying to match other FA CB deals like a 30 year old Grimes or retirement prone DRC, they signed a couple cheap guys with potential to compete, and added a slot CB through FA instead of the draft, which was Purifoy in my post. -I feel that predicting the Jets would add no safety in FA should be considered accurate as well. -I wasn't throwing shit against the wall with those other players, I called them other options but I very clearly specified who I thought were the most likely candidates to be signed. -I accurately named Michael Vick, Eric Decker, Calvin Pace, Jeff Cumberland as the best fits for the team, and they are 4 of our 7 biggest FA signings. The three that I was incorrect on were Austin Howard (signed to a ridiculous contract, and thus replaced by an inexpensive run blocking RT) Jeremy Maclin (re-signed by the Eagles before FA to exactly the kind of contract I specified) and Antonio Cromartie (who I specifically stated hinged on his injury status). Note that I also indicated offensive line continuity was very important, and that we would return 4 of 5 starters from last year. Upon losing Howard to Oakland, the Jets maintained continuity by resigning Colon, another player whose injury status was very much a mystery at the time that I wrote this. I think the fact that these weren't merely a list of guesses, but a detailed description of why they would be ideal candidates shows that I have a least a pretty good understanding of what the Jets want to do with their roster. I think getting as many as I did right with the information available a month before FA began. Remember, most of the media speculation about Free Agency happens in the month before it begins, and I wrote this before pretty much all of it. I would also like to state early in free agency, I was against signing DRC. When DeSean Jackson rumors came out, I said I did not believe the Jets would trade for or sign Jackson. When Chris Johnson rumors came out, I said I didn't believe the Jets would trade for Johnson, but would try and sign him to a cheaper contract upon his release. I was correct on those three counts as well.
I think there was one new addition to his top dogs in scouting, some shifting around of other personnel and the majority of the changes were in all the area scouts.
I've stayed out of this thread for the most part. Let me say that I welcome fans of other teams as long as they aren't here to troll or just talk smack. On several of the Jets boards I've posted on in the past, one of the most regular and best posters was a fan of another team (be it the Ravens or the Dolphins or the Pats). I think you have made some good points. With regards to the CB position, I can't pretend to understand why Idzik took the stance he did with CBs during this FA period. I'm definitely not one that refuses to criticize professionals. At this point, however, I think he has earned the benefit of the doubt. Also, since we don't know all the facts and only see media speculation and rumors, I don't think we can begin to make a fair or accurate assessment of the situation. I respect the fact that he is trying to maintain the team's salary structure while laying a foundation for continued success and building the team. I also respect that he had dollar amounts for each player that he was willing to pay and not overpay. I respect the fact that he is thoughtful, and doesn't panic or make knee-jerk reactions. In time, we may see that he is too slow to act, too cautious, and too tight with the purse strings. If that happens, I will be one of the first to criticize him and one of his most vocal critics. I was ahead of the curve of most Jets fans in criticizing, Herm Edwards, Mangini, Schottenheimer, Sparano, Tanny and Rex. First and foremost, I think it is ridiculous that the Jets have used so many 1st round picks on CBs over the last 10 years. While CBs are important, they are not critical to a team's success, imo. Revis certainly didn't vault Tampa into SB contention, and losing him to injury didn't kill the Jets' chances in 2012. So I think too much importance has been placed on the CB position by the Jets during Rex's tenure, and if Rex truly does think that the CB position is the most important position on the D, then I think he's certifiably nuts. In fairness to him, however, it could be that he was just adjusting/adapting to the players he had on hand and did the best he could to build a solid D. We don't know for certain what his preferences are, although it certainly seems to me that he doesn't value the OLB or FS positions, and values the CB position way too much. If he stays as HC, hopefully Idzik will force him to change his philosophy rather than going along with it. If not, I'll want them both gone ASAP. With regard to the Jets' situation, we don't know what Cro's health is at this point. We DO know that he relies on his physical talent and athleticism rather than technique and that as he gets older, his play will deteriorate more rapidly because of that. We know that his play was awful in 2013. We don't know how much of that was due to his injury. We also don't know what his attitude was like in the locker room or with the CS. We also don't know what the Jets think about Walls and their other CBs. We don't know if the Jets plan on bringing Berry back. I think that both Verner and Davis (or whatever the name is of the Colts' CB that was supposedly the Jets' target) were grossly overpaid. DRC, in spite of all his talent, is just as lazy as Cro in terms of learning technique and working to be the best he can. Whether his heart just isn't in the game, whether he's lazy or what, I'm again glad that Idzik didn't overpay. I didn't want Revis back. I despise Revis and think he is a selfish, greedy bastid. I don't wish injuries on anyone, but if I did, he'd be at the top of the list. I wouldn't have wanted him back if he had payed the team to play for them. He's the Pats' problem now. Perhaps you've already stated what you thought the Jets should have done in FA. As I've said I haven't paid that much attention to this thread. I'll go back and check your posts to see. I, for one, am content to go into this season with either the CBs the Jets currently have on the roster, adding Berry or another CB who is cut post-draft or after TC to the mix, or the Jets adding a CB somewhere in the 3rd - 5th rounds. I don't think they're going to be a serious contender this year anyway. I definitely don't want to see the Jets add another CB in the first round unless he is the BPA by a large margin. I'd much rather the Jets go BPA and hopefully that would work out so that they address the offense in a signficant fashion. If the Jets add only 2-3 defensive players during the draft, then I hope they're an OLB prospect, and ILB prospect and a FS prospect. I believe that the biggest positive impact on the team's performance would be in improving the offense so that they can give Geno every chance to develop, sustain more drives, score more points, and keep the opposing offense off the field. If they're playing with a lead more, that will make their D better.
He did. There were pretty significant changes. I think something like 4-5 of the scouts were either fired or their contracts not renewed. If I'm not mistaken, Joey Clinkscales was the head of collegiate scouting and he is no longer with the team.
