I think our inability to adequately gauge this year's prospects mirrors the professional guys inability to adequately gauge what's going on. Think about which years the best QB has been obvious recently. 2013 - Not obvious. 2012 - Andrew Luck. 2011 - Cam Newton. 2010 - Sam Bradford. 2009 - Matthew Stafford. 2008 - Not obvious. Nobody knew exactly where Matt Ryan was going until the Falcons took him. The next QB drafted was somebody who made everybody go "who?" NFL.com's scouting report on Ryan before the draft compared him to Matt Schaub and Chad Pennington. 2007 - JaMarcus Russell. 2006 - Not obvious. 2005 - Not obvious. Alex Smith nailed down the 1 pick about a week before the draft with Aaron Rodgers falling to the Packers. 2004- Eli Manning. The point is that when it is not obvious who the best prospect is this late in the process that often means there isn't a best prospect, just a few good ones that nobody can put their finger on. The exception in the last decade was Matt Ryan in 2008. The Falcons took a chance and surrounded him with talent and got a payoff on the investment. On the Matt Ryan front, btw, when was the last time a franchise QB went 4-12 in a season he was not injured in? Seems like a fairly unlikely prospect to me.
Yeah, Yeah, it's why I quit listening to rumors about a month or so before the draft...so much BS being blown about, much of it coming from teams front offices or team scouts through the "Unnamed source", that it gets to be impossible to sort out what's real and what's just someone putting something out there hoping it catches. I prefer to pay attention mostly to things before the Combine, yeah I look at numbers a little but the rumors after that point become more and more useless as the draft approaches.
There is significant disparity in their footwork, though that may be a by-product of the offenses they played in.
The only difference between Teddy and Geno is accuracy, lightening quick release, football IQ, the ability to read defenses pre-snap and during progressions, and leadership. Geno has a stronger arm. Other than that, they are exactly the same QB. _
Again, only 3 juniors came out (one a 4th year junior) and one of the greatest sophomore QBs ever. Of the top 25 rated QBs in this draft, 21 are seniors. I was told there wouldn't be any math on this test, but by my count that's 4 underclassmen. In 2013 there were 2, in 2012 there were 4, in 2011 there were 3, in 2010 there were 3. It's not "so many", it's been pretty consistent. And considering how the number of underclassmen declaring has been rising every year, the ratio is actually going down. But keep saying a lot of juniors or so many juniors are coming out, if you say it enough it might become true. Or maybe folks will start believing you. _
Don't you need round grades in order to measure value? For example, Geno was considered a good value pick because he had a first round grade by many and got drafted in the second.
No, that "first round grade" was made up, it was fake, illusory. It was invented by non-front office professional guessers. If he truly had a "first round grade", as a player at THE most important position in all of sports, he would have been drafted in the first round. By someone. Anyone. _
1st round QB's are different than any other position. When you take a 1st round QB you are committing to replacing your existing starting QB with that QB at the first realistic opportunity. You can't take a QB in the 1st round to generate a competition because if he loses the competition you have taken one of your most valuable assets in the year in question, your 1st round pick, and substantially depreciated it's value. Taking a QB in the 2nd round or 3rd round based on the value of the prospect and to generate a competition for the job is not the same thing as using your 1st round pick in that manner. If the guy you draft cannot beat out your incumbent there's still a real possibility that you can move him in a year or two for similar value to what you drafted him for. All you lose in that situation is the depreciation of a year or two on the pick. If the Jets take a QB in the 1st round the expectation is that the guy will be the starting QB by 2015 and maybe sooner. The expectation will be that Geno Smith is going to be a backup for the next few years and then move on.
You are confusing what WE are guessing as opposed to what real GMs and front office people actually think. WE are guessing that he was a first round talent, therefore WE feel like we got value in the second round--as if we somehow stole him. Unless someone shows me actual draft boards from a bunch of teams, I'm not believing any "grades". They're just educated guesses by folks not on the inside. _
I'm not sure why you arbitrarily keep picking 25 to use. Busting with a high round QB is one of the worst things for a franchise. He's talking about early round QBs. Out of the top 5 QBs (Carr, Bortles, Teddy, Manziel, and Jimmy G in no particular order) we have 1 sophomore, three juniors, and a senior. That is what he is saying. High QB busts doom a franchise. These are going to be the high QB picks. I don't care how old the 5th round QBs are. All of the late round picks for every position are almost all seniors, or they wouldn't have came out. Use some common sense. -
Carr and Garopolo are both seniors, but my point is, BWay keeps insisting that there are a LOT of juniors and sophomores coming out this year or "so many" juniors and sophomores coming out this year--intimating it's more than usual--but it's the same EVERY year. It's always 2 or 3 or 4, but that's every year and because SO many underclassmen have declared this year (I think it's 96--the most EVER) the ratio of underclassmen QBs declaring is low by historical standards. The very first two players taken in the 2012 NFL Draft we underclassmen QBs. I just don't understand the blather about "so many juniors or sophmores"--it's unecessary BS, and it's just not true. Had Mariota AND Hundley AND Petty AND Mannion AND Miller come out this year as well, I'd agree that's a LOT. 4 underclassmen QBs is not a lot. _
Carr, Garopolo, Savage, Mettenberger, Murray, McCarron, Fales are all seniors. Bortles is a 4th year junior. All could be gone by the 3rd or 4th round. _
Yup, you're right. Sorry about Jimmy. I think his point though is simply that most of the top QBs this year are underclassmen, which just makes it riskier to draft them.
No his point is he dislikes every QB in this draft and likes throwing crap at he wall to dump on all of them for any illogical reason he can imagine. _
Btw, many of the higher "rated" QBs who come out are underclassmen. It's just the nature of the beast. Pass on them at your peril because some of these guys may hit. And some will bust. Passing on a real talent at the most important position in all of sports because he's an underclassmen is silly. It's a red herring. _
Setting aside ecological fallacy and all other cognitive bias, the first time the Jets drafted an underclassman QB, it worked well.
I was referring to how do YOU determine value without establishing some sort of grade since YOU wrote yourself that Geno was a "huge value at 39". This seems to contradict your mantra about where player is ultimately drafted is essentially their draft grade (paraphrasing). In such a world, there would be no such thing as value.
