BPA is impossible for us as fans to understand. Its actually impossible for TV, paper, and intardnet analysts to understand. That is unless they have access to each of the 32 teams personal player rankings, and understand what each teams deems as needs based upon the system of offense & defense that they use. Just because you feel (or myself for that matter) that the Jets must draft player "X" or position "Y" because we feel its a "need" ... doesn't necassarily mean that the teams feels the same.
This is exactly what BPA is. By assigning value to the prospects before the draft, there is a relatively straightforward way of comparing the values of remaining prospects when you're on the clock. There is always the possibility that when your pick comes, the value of the additional picks you'd gain by trading down outweigh the value of any remaining prospects, and there is the small possibility that there is only one player left before a significant drop off in talent, and if there are only a couple picks between you an the current available pick, the players value might outweigh the value of the picks required to trade up and draft him. All of this is factored into BPA.
Yep this is correct. Many folks have stated in this thread that Idzik is not really drafting based on need. That is obviously a load of crap. BPA definitely means best player available on their draft board and the draft board is based on need and future need. I'm tired of people claiming that Idzik isn't focusing on need. That's a silly notion. You don't build a team without focusing on the soft spots. Tannenbaum pretty much did the same thing and people are praising Idzik for it.
This is true, but Ducasse was probably the best prospect available on the draft board at the time. I'm not saying his picks and philosophy of trading picks were good. Just that he followed BPA (or what he thought was BPA) as well in that regard. Was Hill really a reach, though? We traded down for him, it wasn't like we grabbed him in the 2nd when he had the value of a 3rd rounder. That would be reaching, much like getting Jarvis Jones would have been. I suppose that you could consider any trade a "reach" so in that regard you are correct.
The Jets traded UP for Stephen Hill, and yes he was a reach. The guy was just as must of a project as Ducasse.
Stephen Hill I don't really consider a reach, at least compared to what we heard going into the draft. He was a first rounder or early second in most mocks out there. When the Jets traded up for him, most people didn't think that he was a reach. Obviously in hindsight, he was just athleticism and shouldn't have been taken early.
Yeah I meant up. I was thinking down, like lower numbers. It's easy to say those things after the fact, but at the time it wasn't really a reach, we needed a fast WR that could catch deep balls and stretch the defense. He just took a lot longer to develop than expected. Ducasse was on the draft board. He was most likely the best prospect on our board at the time. Calling him a reach because he didn't pan out, is silly. Tanny liked to trade away picks, but they weren't always reaching, unless you consider trade and reach to mean the exact same thing. And we know Tanny reached at times, but if you are suggesting that he wasn't following a draft board and just thought at the last second, "Hey, lets take this guy instead of the guy who's available that's better on our board," then that's just simply hilarious.
It was a huge reach though. The guy had never caught more than 29 balls in a season in college. He had like 47 catches for his career. You absolutely cannot project somebody with those numbers to be an NFL WR, let alone a #1 WR. It's not about how gifted people are athletically. It's about what they have done with that athleticism.
It wasn't a reach. Hill was ranked right around that area of the draft, some even had him as a first round pick in the mock drafts. If what you are saying is true, then the draft experts do not agree. He might not have been the most experienced WR on the board, but he was ranked up there and if we didn't trade for him, chances are somebody else would have picked him up near that spot.
It was smoke and mirrors. Before the combine Hill was a 4th-6th round pick. How come the Jets always wind up biting on the workout warriors who ace the combine? And I'm not going to list all the pre-combine projections for Hill again. I've been there and done that. You go look them up. You'll see I'm right.
Hill will barely see the field this season. Hill was a workout warrior though, everything was based on potential not production. I see another Holmes episode coming ...
Well then obviously the draft experts are wrong and factor in the combine too heavily. I can't really consider it a reach when the experts rank him right around where he's drafted. Before combine is irrelevant, because they are drafted AFTER and it DOES factor in. Hill could still pan out. He can run routes and get open, last season his issue was timing. He was getting open when Geno wasn't expecting him to and as a result he missed him a bunch of times and also as a rookie, Geno struggled early on learning WCO and getting the timing down. Hill's timing was good with Sanchez in 2012, he just dropped it a bunch of times. He did improve that in 2013 despite not being all that productive. It's certainly not too late for the kid.
I don't think the draft experts are wrong. I don't think we ever get to see what the draft experts think, they mostly work in NFL front offices evaluating and picking NFL players. Everything else is salesmen trying to sell advertising or subscriptions. Go look at the NFL draft over the last decade and find me WR's taken in the top 3 rounds who had a ceiling of under 30 catches as their best year in college and caught under 50 for their career. I'll bet you most of the sample, and maybe all of it, is Stephen Hill. Go look up bowling balls with knives also.
