I really do like your picks of Lewan and Yankey. I love the idea of building the OL and DL 1st then taking skill position players in subsequent drafts. It is the Seattle way and how they built their team and so it has some merit when arguing that Idzik might go that way. But my thought is with a draft that has so much receiver and corner back talent its very likely we will take at least 1 WR and 1 CB in the first 3 rounds. The pick-up of Patterson to compete for a nickel spot seems to say we are drafting a CB to compete with Walls and Wilson. My expectation right now is 1. ODB or Cooks at #1. Amaro at 2 and a CB like Breeland at #3 if he is still there. The Jets have shown quite a lot of interest in both ODB, Cooks and Amaro and there seems to be a lot of buzz building for both ODB and Amaro going to the Jets. Although I question Idzik's use of a #2 pick on a TE. My guess is he would not like spending a high pick on a position that is not a high value or high salary position. In other words TEs, safeties, guards can be found relatively cheaply in FA than positions like receivers, CBs, Tackles and so onwho will have better or bargain cap values if drafted early compared to signing one in FA.
I guess I should further explain my strong opinion on this. I wouldn't (take Brick over most RTs now), but I guess we have a different perspective on what the RT position entails. IMO, unless you have a southpaw QB, in which case, everything is flipped, your LT is your more agile OT who moves (Mirrors, slides) well in space and protects your QBs' back side, and is your best pass blocker. The RT is or should be brawnier than your LT, and while still able to move in space, is more of a drive run blocker imo. I think Damien Woody was the perfect RT. That's why I think Brick would not work at all as a RT. IMO he's a liability in the rushing attack and is increasingly becoming one in pass protection. While he could probably handle the pass blocking aspects of the RT position, I think he would be very inadequate in blocking for the rushing attack, and since the Jets like to run the ball a lot, moreso than many other teams, he would not be a good fit at RT for the Jets imo.
IMO when you have a position of strong need, it is best to draft it in a draft that is strong and deep at that position. This is a great draft for WRs, one of the best in many years, and could turn out to be one of the best ever. IMO it would be totally foolish to ignore the position this year, and then seek to draft a WR next season, when the class of WRs might not be nearly as good or as deep.
It also depends on the type of offense you run. The more open your offense the more emphasis on both sides of the line to pass protect, especially with defenses beginning to move their best pass rushers around the line. The one thing I think we have a difference on is where the team is heading offensively. You believe that the team will remain a run first team and I believe that over time of the next 1-2 seasons it's going to become more of a pass first team. Just my feeling based on the offensive coaching staff they've brought on board since Idizk's arrival. If the team stays a run first team then you are correct, you need a brawny bruiser on the right side, however if the offense shifts more towards the passing and outside game then you need someone who's more agile. Either way, Brick would only be a short term 3-4 year thing at most on the right side.
I actually hope that you're right that the team is heading for a more pass-oriented offense, but with Rex as HC, I have a hard time seeing that ever happen.
headcoaches adapt to the game or they stop being head coaches. The good to great Head coaches change as the game changes. In today's extremely passing friendly rule system short, quick passes are the running game currently unless your just draining the clock.
Although in thinking about it, I might take a TE or WR in the 2nd and then a OG like Dozier in the 3rd.
Thanks for the mock 68jetfan. Looking at your draft, I get the "build from inside out" thinking. However using that mentality, I think the OG position is more in need of a fix than OT, and if OT Lewan isn't available at #18 (which I don't think he will be) than I'd save addressing the OL, i.e. OG picks until later in the draft. That said, imho some comments on your picks below (in dark blue): Round 1 Pick 18: Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan, 2nd or third best OT in the draft. It's not real likely he falls to 18, but it is possible. Not likely there at #18, then what? You've got to go WR (or maybe CB) at that point. OBJ/Cooks/Lee Round 2 Pick 17: David Yankey, OG, Stanford, Not strong enough, David Decastro 2.o. Either WR Adams (Fresno St.) or an OLB (or DE convertable to OLB) Round 3 Pick 16: Jordan Matthews, WR, Not sure he's there in the 3rd. How about now looking at OG: Bitiano (Nevada)? Round 4 Pick 4: Dion Bailey, FS, Southern California, Very much like Fiedorowicz in the 4th round but I'd move him up to the first pick in the 4th, he's probably gone by our 2nd pick in the round. Good height and heft, soft hands (looked good in the bowl game vs. LSU), and with his added value as a blocker (vs. an Amaro), would like this pick. As for EJ Gaines, I don't get the love I've seen for him here and elsewhere at TGG. Round 4 Pick 15: C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE, Iowa. Again, I'd take CJ earlier in the 4th to guarantee his availability. With the 2nd fourth-round pick, here's my 2nd OL selection, my sleeper pick: Trai Turner, OG, LSU. I've re-watched LSU vs. A&M, 'Bama and am finishing the Arkansas game and more and more imo I'm seeing some diamond-in-the-rough promise and upside that Winters doesn't provide both in the "country strong" department (e.g. the 'undersized' Timmy Jerrigan) as well as having a little 'edge' to him (much like Bitonio). Round 5 Pick 14: Kirby Van Der Kamp, P, Iowa State, I've questioned the 'rubber stamp' this guy's has received here at TGG and have commented on it in other threads. VDK's numbers have dropped on both a year-to-year basis, and in 2013 on a game-to-game basis. Beyond that, I wouldn't drop a 5th on a punter unless he was good money exceptional. His guy's numbers don't bear it out. Round 6 Pick 34 (COMP): Chris Boswell, K, Rice, No need. Folk's another year removed from the labrium tear in his hip, besides the Jets extending him... Round 7 Pick 18: Walt Aikens, CB, Maybe ensure his availabiltiy by grabbing him in the 6th? Thx again 68jetfan
This would be a great draft minus the punter and kicker picks. Remember that if you believe Idzik's competition mantra you're likely to see multiple picks at a position to provide the competition required. As examples on the competition thing: in 2010 the Seahawks picked Earl Thomas at S in the 1st round and then Kam Chancellor at S in the 5th. In 2011 they picked Richard Sherman at CB in the 5th round and Byron Maxwell in the 6th round. Just because the Jets get somebody they like at a position doesn't mean they won't double up at the position before everything is said and done. Maybe several times given the 12 picks. I would not be surprised by a draft that included 2 TE's, 2 FS, 2 WR and 2 OT as an example.
Love the feedback. I've really been re-thinking Yankey in the 2nd, I was in love with the idea at the time but the drop off between him and the next tier of OG's isn't a big one. (I really like Dozier for example.). So in retrospect I'd probably switch and take a WR in the 2nd round, probably either Matthews or Montcrief. regarding the first pick, the mock was centered around the idea of one of the top 3 tackles being available when the Jets drafted, it's not likely but there are several scenarios where that could happen, if an OT doesn't go off the board in the first 5 or 6 picks there's a very good chance one of them will be on the board at 18, but if one of them goes in the top 5 it's unlikely any of them will make it to 18. That said I'm 80% certain one OT will go in the top 5 or 6 picks. Only reason I had Boswell at all was because I'm not that in tune with the bottom of the draft and that was mainly a competition pick. You're right, I would probably move Aikens up to the 6th round pick after thinking about it. Nice feedback
Thanks NCJetsfan. As you watch game film on one guy, ever notice how another guy "making plays" catches your attention? Well, in the midst of my 2nd go round watching LSU-Arkansas, while I'm looking at RG Trai Turner, wouldn't you know it but Jarvis Landry makes a play….and then another one. Yeah I know you're souring on him and yes his 40-time was lousy (supposedly a tweaked hamstring), but in that Arkansas game his play jumped out at me. Guy fights for the ball, has really big mitts, takes a hit…..Landry's moved back into my 'like' list and I honestly wouldn't mind if he was picked after our #1st round selection (Lee/Cooks/OBJ). Frankly, he also looks like he's physically suited to playing on Sunday. As for his 40 time, we'll find out what the deal was/is with that since he'll be looking to improve on that come LSU's pro day which is today (Wed., April 9th). About LSU's pro day later today: LSU Associate AD Mike Bonnette has reported that all 32 teams, including 7 head coaches, are expected to attend the workout and among those 7 coaches, Rex Ryan. The other 6 head coaches are Sean Peyton (Saints), Marvin Lewis (Bengals), Bill O'Brian (Texans), Mike Zimmer (Vikings), Chip Kelly (Eagles) and Mike Tomlin (Steelers).
Yes, I have experienced that before. I understand your love for his game. I'm sure that if I go back and watch more film on LSU and Landry, I will start liking him more again. Then again, it's not really so much that I don't think he can play in the NFL, as it is that I don't think he's a good fit with the Jets. The WCO is about WRs getting YAC and that's just not something he can do. He has GREAT hands, is tough and fearless over the middle, and has a knack for getting open, or at least did in college. What remains to be seen is if he'll have that same knack for getting open in the NFL and will be able to get off the LOS. I think he will or at least may struggle some initially with the latter, but will eventually probably become at a minimum a solid 3rd down, possession-type receiver, and more likely a good, reliable starting WR in the NFL, perhaps even an Anquan Boldin-like receiver. Still, I don't think that really fits the Jets' offense, and as good as he may become in one way, he would hinder the style and efficiency of the Jets' offense in another way. With Decker at one starting WR position, the Jets need a burner at the other starting position with Kerley in the slot. Boldin doesn't fit that criteria, so even if the Jets did draft him, he would either prevent the Jets from having the right kind of receiver in their offense, or he wouldn't be a starter, and I think the 2nd round and maybe even the 3rd round in this draft is too high to take a part-time player. If Landry fell to the 4th, and the Jets hadn't gotten a receiver in the 1st 3 rounds, then yes, I'd jump at the chance to take him, because he would undoubtedly be the best WR left. I may would even do the same in the 3rd round if they didn't get a WR in the 1st 2 rounds. I wouldn't take him in the 2nd round, however. I'd rather have Davante Adams, or Jordan Matthews if he's still there or ASJ or Niklas.
Good post, and I understand your YAC concerns with Landry in the WCO scheme of things. That said, in that same respect how do you see Decker's role in all of this assuming the Jets go after "weapon" WR such as Marqise "YAC" Lee with their 1st pick? What I mean is that if Decker's not so much a YAC guy and more the possession altenative, doesn't Landry aside from his toughness (and his occassional "Chris Carter" catch ability) at least serve as a little more of a "YAC" guy than Decker (with hopefully Hill improving to the point where he can occassionally spell the home run threat WR)?
Thanks. No, I wouldn't see Landry as the YAC guy paired with Decker. I think Decker's probably faster and better at YAC than Landry. While the 40-yard dash is not that great a measure of a football player's speed on the playing field, 4.72 is still VERY slow for a WR. Unless the CB (or whomever was covering him fell down), imo there's little or no chance of Landry getting behind the defender or making him miss and getting additional yards. Decker and he would be better than what we have now, but imo they would force MM to dramatically alter the WCO. There would be no chance of "chunk" plays or quick scores. Even if we drafted Ebron in the first, unless we signed Chris Johnson, the Jets would have no offensive playmaker that opposing DCs would have to scheme to stop or that would worry them about scoring from anywhere on the field. They'd be able to pretty much keep 8 men in the box and not worry about the long ball at all. I'm not counting on Hill for anything. I haven't given up hope on him yet, but by the same token, I'm not counting on him, either. Anything the Jets get from him at this point will be a bonus. Regardless of how else this draft turns out, imo if the Jets come out of this draft without one of Cooks, Beckham, Matthews or Adams, then this draft will pretty much be a failure imo, at least in terms of the offense. Speed on offense and in particular at the WR position is the team's biggest need. If they fail in adding speed (and Martavis Bryant and the Richardson kid don't count imo) in this draft, then I don't care if they add 3 HOFers on the defensive side of the ball, I'll stop liking Idzik and will want him fired. While that's an extreme position, I'm sick of having no offense or a pathetic offense. Rex has had enough high draft picks for his D. It would be one thing if this draft were loaded with great defensive prospects and few, if any, offensive prospects, but that isn't the case. Adding 1 WR in the 4th round or lower won't cut it. Adding a slow possession-type WR won't cut it imo. Speed kills. I want a team that can light up the scoreboard. If they can't or won't put together a team like that, then I want them all gone.
Here's what I found about Landry's pro day: "The speed increase is good news for Landry, but questions will persist about his athleticism after he failed to improve some of his other measurements on pro day. He saw a slight advance in his vertical (31"), but actually dropped two inches in his already unimpressive broad jump (111"). For perspective, Beckham's vertical was 8 inches higher and his broad jump was 9 inches longer. Landry didn't fare that well in the catching drills, either." I don't know about you but I don't always look into combine numbers all that much. I'm a big proponent of the old "all that matters is how they play on gameday" saying. In case your interested here's a link to some brief analysis on Mettenbergers and ODB's pro days as well. http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2014/4/...zach-mettenberger-jarvis-landry-odell-beckham
This is broken in to two parts due to length. the explanation of how the draft worked and the first round will be in this post, as well as the first 3 picks of the 2nd round. Okay I decided to do an update on my mock. First off, if you don't like trades stop here. there is one trade down and one trade up. First I went though all the players and came up with a list of 50 players and then ranked them in order of what I deemed to be BPA. I did this before doing any of the following computations. To determine what players were likely to be available at what point in the draft I created a spreadsheet that took the draft ranking of players from 4 different websites and then averaged them out to determine what "midpoint" a player was likely to be available at and then made it a point to draft only players who were ahead of that midpoint. For example if a player was ranked 64th on one website and 32nd on another website the average would be 48 for the midpoint, or chosen no later than the 48th pick. I had to fudge a little bit because NFL.com doesn't rank all the players except by position so I had to use projected rounds. for example a round 1 projection scored a 16 (though as you'll see in the next paragraph this system was not used to determine who was available in the first round) but if the player was a 1-2 tweener then I would use a generic top 3rd of the 2nd round rounded off, or by pick 42 in this case. To determine who each team took in the first round I used 4 mock draft sites, 2 of which contained drafts by multiple people) which gave a combined total 11 drafts. What ever player was most selected for that team who was still on the boards as available is who was selected, if the highest totaled player was off the board the next highest totaled player was used in place. On two occasions I had to abandon that because all the players that were mocked were off the boards. In other words I didn't manipulate data in order to get a desired outcome (if I had Sammy Watkins or Mike Evans would have been available at 18. As it turned out none of the players I wanted at 18 were available, but there was a very good trading chip on the table and that's why I mocked the trade, and the trade made sense to both teams. The one disappointment I had was I couldn't get either of the midround QBs that I wanted, there was someone I had ranked higher in both cases and I went BPA that qualified under the terms of my likely available until point. I also had to make some really tough choices in rounds 3 and 4 because there are a lot of players I really like at that point in the draft. I probably could have forgone one of the Saftey picks for a RB or one of my QB's but in my opinion the Jets secondary is a mess currently and the players in question I had ranked higher. so the Mock. (if things did actually fall and occur this way I suspect the Jets would take Kevin Benjamin instead of who I drafted, but I think who I drafted is the better choice.) 1 Texans Clowney DE 2 Greg Robinson OT 3 Jags Khalil Mack OLB 4 Browns Sammy Watkins WR 5 Raiders Johnny Manzel QB 6 Falcons Jake Matthews OT 7 Buccaneers Mike Evans WR 8 Vikings Blake Bortles QB 9 Bills Eric Ebron TE 10 Justin Gilbert CB 11 Titans Anthony Barr OLB 12 Giants Aaron Donald DT 13 Rams Odell Beckham WR 14 Bears Jernigan DT 15 Steelers Dennard CB 16 Cowboys Zack Martin OG 17 Falcons Brandin Cooks WR 18 Jets Trade with Browns Here's the trade down. Bridgewater has fallen and the Browns really need a QB, I think Bridgwater is the best QB in the draft but (and I hadn't looked down the list to see who went where after his pick) but I knew the Cardinals and Bengals were likely to grab him before the Browns next pick. Heck I was very tempted to draft him anyways. But I asked myself what would I give up if I were the browns, what would I want as the Jets. My first thought as the Jets was the Browns first, 2nd and 4th round picks. But when I looked at it from the browns point of view I decided I wouldn't do it. But What I decided I would be willing to do was give up the 2 3rd round picks, a 6th and swap places in the 2nd round. In essence the Browns get Bridgwater for 2 3rd's and a 6th and keep a second round pick, albeit a pick 14 slots lower. Details: Jets give up 1-18, 2-17 Browns give up 1-26, 2-3, 3-7,3-19,6-4 18 Browns take Bridgwater QB 19 Dolphins Cyrus Kouandjio OT 20 Cardinals Demarcus Lawrence DE 21 Packers Calvin Pryor FS 22 Eagles Bradley Roby CB 23 Chiefs Marqise Lee WR 24 Bengals Kyle Fuller CB 25 Chargers Louis Nix DT 26 Jets Ryan Shazier OLB At this point Shazier is my BPA. He's a not a Rex Ryan type of OLB, but Ryan's OLB's generally don't tend to be good pass rushers. He's got a high motor, an good field leader, an explosive pass rush and he's fluid in coverage. Would Rex take him here? probably not, but IMHO it's a smart pickup. 27 Saints Jason Verett CB 28 Jaguars Morgan Moses OT 29 Patriots Ra'shede hagemen DT 30 49ers Bradley Roby CB 31 Broncos Xavier Su'a-filo 32 Seahawks Jace Amaro TE 2-1 Texans Tom Savage QB 2-2 Redskins Cj Mosley ILB 2 3 Jets Donte Moncrief WR This pick at this point will raise some eyebrows, but I really like Moncrief. He's got size at 6'3, he's fast (7th fastest combine time for WRs at 4.40 and it shows on the field too). he's a tweener with most sites, but not all, listing him as a 1-2 round pick. He's a good route runner, good hands and he's got the speed for separation. I could have gone Jordan but he's too much like Decker and I wanted someone that could spread the field deep.
3-7 CJ Fiedorowicz TE CJ Has become my favorite Tight end in the draft, I had to choose between him and a couple other players as they were all ranked 3-15 or lower and I could only take one I chose him over Skov and Mettenberg. I like his size, his ability to block, his ability to go down the seam, his hands. He's a matchup nightmare and he projects to likely be available at this point. 3-16 Dion Bailey FS Dion I like a lot for his ball skills, I actually think he's a lower pick than this but the average on him had him gone by 3-20 so I had to take him here. That said he's good with his hands for interceptions, he's more of a tweener between a LB and a Safety but he's got good coverage skills and plays the game hard. He's a ball hawk which I like and has a penchant for big plays. 3-19 Yawin Smallwood ILB I Gave up Skov to get CJ earlier, and actually I like Smallwood better over all, though Skov is a better run defender with a higher motor. Smallwood has a knack for getting to the QB. He's a little more like an OLB than an ILB in his skill set and build, but in today's pass happy league that's not a bad thing. He's physical with a penchant for big plays and unlike Harris he's more than adequate in coverage. This is a pick for grooming until 2015 season when I suspect Harris will be gone if the kid can work out. Him and Davis on the inside with Coples and Shazier on the Outside..yum plus the DL pass rush and you have a nightmare for QB's potentially. This is a little early to draft him but at this point based off of the projection system he was the BPA on my list. In reality probably could have gotten him at 4-4. but I stayed with BPA on my list who projected to be available. I think he's got a huge upside. 4-4 Ej Gaines CB- Okay this one may be personal bias as he's from Missouri and I've seen him play a lot and I like his style and how he plays the game. He's got speed, good hands with a knack for either knocking the ball away or picking it off (31 passes defended 8 picks) and he reads QB's very well. He's also a very good blitzer from the corner. Hes' got quick hands and a penchant for big plays (it's a trend for me) He plays well either in press or off coverage, but for someone who likes to play press and bump and run he's not a physical tackler. and at 4.44 40 time he's got speed to burn. 4-15 Ahmad Dixon SS I like Dixon, a lot. He's a hitter and he's competent in coverage, though a bit raw. He also tends to rely too much on thump and not enough on wrap (one of the reasons he's available at this point in the draft.) He's aggressive in going after the ball. at 4.64 he's no slouch on speed, though not a burner either. He's depth and competition at a weak safety position. 4-37 De'Anthony Thomas RB This one is borderline, I had to pass on Dri Archer because I didn't like where I had to pick in in the 3rd round and he's more of a change of pace back for me. De'anthony projects to barely bet in the top of the 5th, he ranked out at 5-3 and this is the closest of any of my picks after the 2nd round in terms of being before the midpoint. But with RB's being devalued in todays game there's a legit chance he's there as he's undersized. But he's a dynamic receiver and he's quick. He's a play maker and the Jets can use all of them they can get their hands on. One thing I like better about him than Dri is his ability to block. 5-14 Devon Street WR This one is also borderline on availability. 2 sites had him gone in the 4th, and two had him listed as 5-6 . But if he's here he's a steal. 6-3 with good hands, not a burner though and more of a passion type of receiver. but he's another big target with sure hands who knows how to get open, at this point in the draft it's hard to ask for much more. He doesn't have a lot of room to grow his frame and he's not going to get quicker. Jets Trade 6-4 and 6-19 for mid round 5th. This is my one trade up Aikens was my next player on my BPA list and he wasn't projected to make it to the 6th round based on the midpoint (personally I think He'll be available in the 6th or 7th, but I stuck to the game plan). This is admittedly a bit of a cheat. 5-15 Walt Aikens CB - Aikens has the size at 6-1 203. at 4.5 on the 40 he's not a burner but he has excellent football speed. Only reason he's down this low in the draft are discipline issues, but there's a lot to like. He plays press and off coverage well. He's aggressive and goes after the ball, in some ways he's a lot like the Honey badger, though not as talented. 6-33 Spencer Long OG This is just a depth pick. I really wanted an OL somewhere in the draft. He was playing well before the knee injury and I think without that he would have probably been a 4th or 5th round pick. He's got good upside if he's healthy. 6-34 Colt Lyerla TE This is an example of high risk high reward. Talent wise he's off the chart, but he's raw. He also has a lot of off the field issues and discipline problems. He'll like go as a UDA however he was the best player on my board at this point who figured to be available. His route running is raw, but at 6-4 242 and a 4.61 40 he's a nightmare match up for LB's and too big for most safties or corners. He's got great hands, but his legal issues are a huge red flag. Take away those and he's a 2nd round pick, possibly 1st. He could be a pro-bowler, or he could wind up in prison. With a 6th round comp pick it's not a big risk to take for the Jets. 6-37 Michael Sam DE. Same is a guy I like, but his stock has been dropping, he's raw granted but part of me can't help but ask if it's because he came out. a couple of week ago he was viewed as a 4th to 5th round, since the combine his stock has plunged to where most sites have him as a 7th or udfa. This is the type of player I like, someone who's stock drops because of off the field measurable and not because of off the field issues or on field play. The kid has a huge upside despite being somewhat under sized, probably more an OLB candidate in the NFL than a DE. He's a low risk high reward player in my book. He can fall back in coverage or rush the passer, it's all good. He's also played for Missouri so I've seen him play enough to really like how he plays, much like Gaines. 7-18 Marion Grice RB- Grice is a guy who like Long would probably go higher if he hadn't been hurt. He's big on ball security with I think only 1 fumble over the last 2 years if I recall correctly, he's a receiving threat and a endzone bloodhound, he sniffs it out. If healthy he could pay big dividends. I took some risks at the bottom of the draft with both players that have been injured and players who have legal or discipline issues but all of them save for perhaps Long, have hug potential payoffs and as picks in the 5th or later the risk to the team is minimal. I know a lot of you don't like trades, oh well. This really is my final mock though BTW BTW with no trades Bridgwater would have been the pick at 18, BPA.
I appreciate the amount of work you put into this and I wouldn't ever tell someone that something could never happen at the draft (i.e. Bridgewater falling to 18th pick) but I really hope you are wrong. The only picks you made that I like are Bailey, Gaines, Dixon (only because safety is such a need, otherwise a FS and SS seems like a lot in one draft) and maybe Fiedorowicz. The rest? Ugh.
