What's your gut say? Who's the guy at #18?

Discussion in 'Draft' started by IIMeanDeanII, Mar 26, 2014.

  1. heartpumpsgreen

    heartpumpsgreen Active Member

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    The reports are wrong, Dennard does have good ball skills. Justin Gilbert has 11 career INTs to Dennard's 8. Not a huge difference especially considering Gilbert plays in the PAC-10, a more pass oriented conference.

    I compare these two CBs ... .And clearly, Gilbert has more flashy highlights, Dennard is more gritty and sound, but also Dennard does have some absolutely breath taking spectacular plays on the ball ... lets not make him out to be Antoine Winfield. Again, considering Gilbert is regarded as having better ball skills, his 3 more INTs don't tell me that conclusion.

    Now I know they were drafted in different years, but Gilbert reminds me of D'Angelo Hall where Dennard is definitely more Revis-like. These "highlight reel" type CBs that are top 5-10 picks, they have their moments, and Hall has had a decent career, but he has been burnt his fair share, and during his career was never half the corner Revis ever was. Revis, when he came out, also had a reputation of not being an elite athlete. Didn't blow ppl away with 40 times, ball skills, or long jumps. The story goes that Terry Bradway and Mangini scouted Revis and were blown away by his technique, the smoothness of his hip turn, his back pedal technique, etc. Plus while not being labeled as a "ball hawk", he was labeled as having a "nose for the ball". For some reason, this always sounds better to me when I read that term in scouting reports. Revis was also 5'11" (identical to Dennard), but I don't think anyone cares about those missing 2 inches these days.

    Anyway, I'll make no secret, Dennard is my favorite player in the draft for the Jets, based on their needs. I think there is an outside shot he will be there for the Jets at 18, and I would assume that he would be VERY high on their board. Certainly higher than you7r run of the mill WRs in this draft (not a knock, but what I mean is that you can find similar value to Cooks in the 2nd and 3rd round).

    Many ppl have made really great points here. Broadway made a somewhat compelling argument that CB is not the most important position, and Rex should be able to assemble a solid defense with "average" QB play. Where he completely loses me is when he wants the Jets to use 4th and 5th round picks on CBs that should be counted on to play or make a difference. Or guys with super low ceilings like Darrin Walls and Kyle Wilson. Sorry, but these CBs are well below average. And I've said this before ... I am concerned because our "#1 CB" Milliner is no sure thing! Also he has said that CB is not an important position. I'm just going to let the posts above mine do the talking, because that is just wrong. Seattle just won a SB with CB and S play, basically. You need good CBs in today's passing league. As for winning with average CB play, yes that could be done with a fierce pass rushing attack, which the Jets don't really have. The DL is fierce bc it completely annihilates the running game and is solid at getting to the CB, but we don't have a Strahan or a '11 JPP, or Justin Tuck in his prime ... as pass rushers. Not yet.

    So yes, I would love Dennard, he is the real deal, and we would all be thankful in the end if he fell to the Jets at 18. I like other players in this draft, and I am completely all for BPA. If the Jets draft Cooks, or Amaro, or say Beckham Jr., and Dennard is available, I'm not going to come on here and kill Idzik post draft, I'm just going to cross my fingers that he is right passing on Dennard.

    WRs drafted beyond say the top 10 are a total crapshoot. Go look at the 10 year history of first round picks at WR. I'd guess you'd count so many more busts than finds. I agree with an above post as well, 1st round CBs definitely have a lower bust percentage, although we found one with Kyle Wilson.

    My 2nd favorite player for the Jets in this draft is Dee Ford, so I would also be very happy if we got him. Someone above mentioned CJ Mosely, and actually that is a VERY sound guess. It is quite possible that Mosely will be their BPA at 18. Look at the Jets ILB, its scary. Demario Davis showed flashes last year, but are you ready to anoint him the leader of the defense if Harris is done? I certainly am not. He is fast, but did not rack up tackles, or big plays. I do not think it is a certainty that this will be David Harris' last year, he can still play, but they will DEFINITELY ask him to restructure next year or be cut. I think Mosely is a possibility, and I would not mind. But Dennard is my favorite by a long shot, and I also think Dee Ford is going to be a sack master in the NFL.
     
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  2. jetlife21

    jetlife21 Well-Known Member

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    I'd love to have Ebron he's who I'd take but there's a 90% chance he'll be gone. As the team stands now Dennard makes the most sense unless we bring in a corner these next couple of weeks. If not Dennard it'd be great to see us get a legitimate pass rusher in Dee Ford. Lee is a possibility but I think there's bust potential in Beckham Jr and Cooks I'd rather take BPA and attack the deep Receiver class in rounds 2 or 3.
     
  3. DMarsh6

    DMarsh6 Active Member

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    My gut says if Ebron is there they take him.. if not they trade down and take w.e receiver falls to em which IMO will be Lee
     
  4. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    Ebron is an old Jets pick, like before Parcells came to town. Whether the current FO will value him that highly is unknown but he's no guarantee to be a good, let alone great, NFL TE. He's not the second coming of Vernon Davis. Vernon Davis ran a 4.38 40 at 6'3" 254. He had a 42 inch vertical and he got 33 reps on the bench.

    Ebron ran a 4.60, had a 32 inch vertical and 24 reps.

    These are not similar physical prospects. So get the Vernon Davis comparisons out of your minds. He's not that and he's not even close.
     
  5. Falco21

    Falco21 Well-Known Member

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    You are among the minority that think he is not compared to Vernon Davis.

    Scouts, analysts, and high ranking NFL executives all see a ton of similarity in the two when compared at the same stages of their careers. I'm sorry, but I'll go with my own visual test and the amount of highly paid persons opinion's, over a message board member who is basing their opinion off of seeing a player on a television screen. Sorry, but I think you are dead wrong.
     
  6. Dax89

    Dax89 Active Member

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    The point is that as good of an athlete Ebron is, Davis is on his own planet. Davis may be the most athletic player in the history of the NFL.
     
  7. Falco21

    Falco21 Well-Known Member

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    And again who's to say Ebron is not that next guy? Is Davis the only one that will ever be like that in the future of the NFL? Give me a break.

    If you compare them side by side at the same point in their careers, they are very alike, hence why every scout and executive is claiming the similarity.

    And to say that Davis may be the most athletic in the history of the NFL is absurd. You have anything to back up that claim? That's a HUGE thing to put on one guy
     
  8. Nick Ludovico

    Nick Ludovico New Member

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    I wouldn't say Dennard is athletic. great fit for this defense, but rookie corners scare me. We all saw how hard rex's system can be on corners with Milliner last year; my gut is telling me he will be the pick though. He has to cut down on the grabbing. What you guys think about one of the safeties.. love Pryor
     
  9. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    The difference between a 4.38 40 and a 4.60 40 is extraordinary. The difference between a 42 inch vertical leap and a 32 inch vertical leap is also huge. An athlete than can do 4.38 and 42 is on a different plane of athletic ability than an athlete that can do 4.60 and 32.

    Often the difference between the two sets of numbers is a result of real differences in the player's anatomy. A guy who is lighter and has stronger legs and better overall coordination will often be able to out jump somebody who is heavier and has more muscle mass elsewhere in the body compared to the legs. Similarly a guy who is lighter, smaller and better coordinated will often run much faster than somebody who is heavier, bigger and less well coordinated.

    Vernon Davis and Eric Ebron are essentially the same size. Ebron might be a half inch taller. Their combine weights were almost identical.

    For Davis to be faster, more athletic and stronger than Ebron in all the measured traits despite being essentially the same size indicates that he is just a much better athlete than Ebron.

    Put another way:

    TE1: 4.38 40, 42 inch vertical, 33 reps
    TE2: 4.60 40, 32 inch vertical, 24 reps
    TE3: 4.68 40, 35 inch vertical, 22 reps
    TE4: 4.72 40, 35 inch vertical, 20 reps
    TE5: 4.83 40, 33 inch vertical, 22 reps
    TE6: 4.55 40, 38 inch vertical, 26 reps
    TE7: 4.51 40, 35 inch vertical, 23 reps
    TE8: 4.80 40, 37 inch vertical, 23 reps

    That's the last 7 TE's picked in the 1st round of the NFL draft plus Ebron. What makes him standout in that list other than the fact that he can't jump as well as any of them?
     
  10. Falco21

    Falco21 Well-Known Member

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    Is that all you compare? Height, weight, speed, and vertical leap? I mean Jesus. If that's all that's compared, you would have some fucked up picks.

    Look at the film. Watch his skill at the position. Again, there is a reason why EVERYONE is comparing the two and claiming the similarities. There is two parts to this argument. One being the tangible you listed, and the other being the actual skill set. He has VERY similar skill set to Vernon Davis which makes him SIMILAR. No one is claiming an exact replica.
     
  11. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    No, he doesn't have a similar skill set to Davis. He's not as good a blocker and he doesn't have Davis hands. Coming out of school Davis was seen as a strong aggressive blocker with excellent hands who compensated for average height with great ability to elevate for the ball.

    People are only talking about Ebron in comparison to Davis because he's basically the same size and had a really good year last year. That talk started to go away at the combine when it became clear that Ebron didn't have the physical skills of Davis. Most analysts are talking about Ebron as a mid 1st round pick at this point. Everybody had Davis solidly in the top 10 in 2006.

    At his pro day Ebron stood on most of his combine numbers but he did do the short shuttle and the 3-cone drill again, apparently coming up short of expectations in both categories. He also dropped several passes.

    The guy is a decent prospect but god help anybody who takes him thinking they've got the second coming of Vernon Davis. They're just as likely to have a decent TE who doesn't stand out after NFL LB's begin chucking him at the line of scrimmage on pass plays.
     
  12. Falco21

    Falco21 Well-Known Member

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    Again, I'll believe what I see and what I read from high paid NFL scouts and analysts. You are someone, like myself, who watches him on TV. You don't have the credentials nor the resources to see him and study him in person, so again, I'll go by what I am reading.
     
  13. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    Just look at the numbers.

    The Combine did to Ebron the one thing that it's very good at doing. It blew away the myth that he is some kind of great athletic TE that is going to continue in the tradition that Vernon Davis established. That doesn't mean he's not a good prospect, it just means that the odds that he's a star are pretty low. He's similar in quality to Tyler Eifert last year and probably should go in about the same range.

    Moving people up based on their combine performance is usually an error. Moving them down is what the Combine is there for. It blows away all the smoke that athletic departments and agents put out there for their favored sons and clients.
     
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  14. WW85

    WW85 MOCKERATOR
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    Idzik is going to take the BPA, that's a fact. Just go back 11 months ago and Dee Milliner and Richardson were the BPA on the Jet's board.

    I don't think Dennard will be the BPA when the Jets are OTC. While I really like Dennard, there should be a better player available at #18. Four players that might be BPA.... Lewan, Clinton-Dix & Gilbert or Barr (slight chance) could be the choices.

    No one is talking about Ha Ha Clinton Dix, he would be a huge upgrade to our secondary and perfect to play center field.
     
    #74 WW85, Mar 30, 2014
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2014
  15. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    I agree with all of this. If a star FS prospect gets down to 18 the odds are pretty good the Jets are looking at him hard.
     
  16. RubenDias

    RubenDias Well-Known Member

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    safety is deep in this draft dont think they go first round and Haha has bust potential Pryor is the best safety in this draft
     
  17. TNJet

    TNJet Well-Known Member

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    Johnny fuckin' Football
     
  18. Richiebsweet

    Richiebsweet Active Member

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    Cooks, if the JETS don't pickup Jackson in free agency and definitely Dennard if they do.
     
  19. WW85

    WW85 MOCKERATOR
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    Not too sure about C-Dix being a bust, Pryor could be a riskier pick. CP plays out of control at times and his big hits won't be tolerated by the NFL "offense Bias" in protecting players.

    If Clinton-Dix is the BPA, it will be a consideration.
     
  20. WW85

    WW85 MOCKERATOR
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    I think Cooks is going to be one of their top targets. I heard Marty was really impressed with his pro-day workout.
     

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