Note that I made this post back on Feb 15, well before any news of the Jets FA plans except that they were talking to Austin Howard. Personally I feel that this is strikingly similar to what the Jets have proceeded to do in FA, and I used my knowledge of Idzik to make this thread, which is why it is so ridiculous to me when people think Idzik somehow did not accomplish what he wanted during FA. The way Idzik evaluates FAs is similar to how he evaluates draft prospects, he uses a combination of algorithms and eye tests/gut tests to basically assign a value to a player. He is a staunch proponent of maintaining that initial value, which is why he will likely never get caught in a "bidding war." The phrase "Idzik Guys" is just a vague way of referencing guys who Idzik believes will buy into the team, the system, and the coaching. Basically they are high motor guys with work ethic and passion. If you have an inspirational coach who can get the best out of players who buy in, every time you get a guy who buys in you are basically giving yourself a minimum production quantity that you can be sure of. I'll talk about this a bit more later. So now why did I determine each of these players a good fit for the Jets? I looked at what was a real problem last year, and that was QB play and WR/TE quality. With the overpaid vets Sanchez, Holmes, and Cro being certain cuts, there was no doubt we had to get a QB. Despite his past, Vick has proven to be a hard worker, and a very professional, head-on-straight type of guy these past few years, plus he was good in a mentor position for Foles. Combine that with the fact that he was the best QB available and the connection with MM, it seemed the logical fit. By signing a legitimate starter, Geno will be either pushed or overtaken. That's the good thing about a second round QB, if he tanks and has no promise for 2015, we look for another QB. Decker was also a logical fit. If you are Idzik and you know you don't want to give big contracts out, you find the very best high character (Idzik Guy) on the market, and create your assigned value for him. Decker is a very intelligent player, and surprisingly versatile. If you're curious, read The Jets Blog's article on Decker and it shows how versatile he really is. His willingness to do whatever the team needs of him (his blocking is key) and his production dictated he actually was worth more than most players to Idzik, therefore garnering him a 5 year deal. Idzik always builds a back door escape though; with only $15 mil guaranteed to Decker means unless Decker is clearly still worth $7+ million/year in 2016, the Jets can walk away. These two positions were key, because these positions were where Idzik didn't believe a guy on the team at the time could provide what Idzik wanted. I can pretty much guarantee the Jets would have been all over the 1 year deal the Eagles gave Maclin, but they never got the chance. Sanders could have been another other guy, but I think they didn't want to sign 2 WRs to multiyear deals which is why Maclin would have been perfect. James Jones also got a multi year deal, and with so many draft able WRs it's just a bad allocation of money. Cumberland again is a known factor, and a player that Idzik believes will be at minimum as valuable to the team as the extension he signed. TE was very empty, and looking around the league there was no TE with the combination of youth, upside, familiarity, and bargain value that Cumberland could offer. Notice the Jets haven't signed any older players to deals of more than 2 years since Idzik came on board. Austin Howard would have been a very similar situation to Cumberland, but the Raiders desperately needed help and overpaid for the RT. Idzik immediately jumped to Breno Giacomini, a guy who he was familiar with in Seattle. Want to know what an "Idzik Guy" sounds like on the field? Find Breno's "mic'ed up" for the SB. Talk about passion and team enthusiasm. Breno is a quality player, and while he's no elite tackle, Idzik got his familiarity, character, and value. Even though they didn't end up with Howard, they targeted him for these reasons as well. As far as guard, I'm sure the Jets looked at other FAs but I didn't see any that seemed to fit. I was unsure about Colon because of his injury but if the team doctors are confident about that, so am I. Pace was an obvious guy to re-sign, he trains hard, plays hard, plays smart, happily plays a position that is very selfless in that he is always in the trenches fighting O-linemen and making tackles, and it requires a lot of pre-snap and mid-snap reads to help take up blockers for other guys. He costs little and fits perfectly into our defense, especially with Antwan Barnes who is still on the roster for a year. People were clamoring for Lamarr Houston or Worilds, but why? Coples is about to enter year 3, and will probably make significant improvements at his OLB position. There's no reason Pace can't have 10 sacks again and a number of stops, with the 'Sons eating up linemen, and Houston is more of a DT/DE than DE/OLB. Pace had as many sacks last year as Houston has had the last two years combined anyway, and we committed for a about a third of the time and less than a third of the annual salary. On top of that, we have Barnes waiting to come back and contribute. I'd rather have Pace and Barnes and a developmental, young, cheap, OLB with one of our 12 draft picks. Cro I have to be honest, bringing him back was more about personal attachment than anything, what with how pro he's been since Revis left. As I looked more though, his injury can be very nagging. He had a strained tendon in his hip, which doesn't heal in the same precise way as a bone or muscle. With age, the elasticity can get funky and the injury may never leave for good. From what I understand, basically Idzik was shown the contract the Cards offered, and said sorry we won't match that. The Cards are in it to win it though, not in the process of assembling talent as we are. I think the strength of their secondary made taking a risk on Cro much easier to stomach for them. Lankster was very valuable to us as an option for nickel/dime corner and ST player last year, and he played hard every play, so I wanted him back. Add in the low cost signing for a youthful and talented corner in Walls for competition, and we are set to enter the draft. People complained about Revis not coming back, but who really knows what he would consider taking from various teams. Personally I would not have wanted to give up half our cap space to bring him back for 1 year, plus with the history it's too messy. DRC will likely go down as one of the worst signings this offseason. Woopie for the Giants, they got an up and down corner who has only played a fraction of his seasons in the league at a very high level, and they committed for multiple years. A couple months ago DRC was saying he might retire if the Broncos won, does that sound like a passionate, committed, all-in type of team player? Not to me. I think that if the Jets don't get a legitimate competitor at CB in the draft, I wouldn't be surprised if they bring in Carlos Rogers on a cheap 1 year deal before camp starts, but even if they do I also wouldn't be surprised if he's cut after losing the job to Walls. I guessed that Idzik would hit the draft with the safety rotation untouched, because we actually have a lot of youth, potential, and value there which most people don't realize. Ed Reed could come back between the draft and training camp if they feel they don't have enough competition in that group. I even forgot to put Jaiquawn Jarrett on there, another young safety with potential (he was originally the Eagles 2nd round pick in 2012.) You can pretty much ignore the draft part of the post, I knew at the time it was way to early to properly speculate about who we'd draft but I threw it in anyway. The thing that people don't realize is that these guys they are calling for Idzik to sign are big names more than anything. Don't believe the media BS, Idzik has a plan and is sticking to it. I'm not going to sit here and tell you you have to blindly follow Idzik. Personally, I feel like I understand his goals and the way he goes about attaining them, and I buy in. What I am saying is feeling panicky about missing out on FA should actually be relief that Idzik didn't get swept up into any of it and sign away the teams future. I think people should be more excited about the 12 picks we have, that's 12 new guys we get to try out. Finally, we have some guys who are coming up for an extension. Actually, the cap does roll over into next year, so we can go into the 2015 offseason with about $60 million in cap space. Theoretically, we will have probably the youngest team in the league, a fresh extension for our best player, and a LOT of money to play with. By continuing to draft and sign short term value deals, we put ourselves in ideal position to accumulate amazing depth (see Seattle Seahawks), the youth and continuity to stay on top of the league for a long time (see Seattle Seahawks), and luxury picks and cap space to strike on the player we want (see Seattle Seahawks, e.g. Percy Harvin).
/\ Maximus that is a very nice read, but you really don't expect these kids to read the whole thing, do you? There is a difference between "Adult Play" and "Childs Play" Idzik = Adult Play Tannenbum = Childs Play But I'll admit years ago I bought into the splash of FA and only having 4 picks a year. I like Idzik's plan and it will take awhile to detox from years of Child's play at the hands of a capologist. I believe we are in good shape for the draft and there is a whole lot of time left before the season starts.
I think the biggest issue some Idzik supporters have is wrapping their heads around the fact that you can address needs in free agency without screwing up your cap situation. I don't understand the all or nothing approach. People act like it is a fork in the road and you either choose signing nobody and filling every roster spot with draft picks OR you sign every position of need and just draft guys for depth. I think of it more like an orchard where you walk through the bushes and pick some fruit off one side and some off the other. Some will look good but taste terrible but you won't know until you try it. I would agree that teams that just sign 10 guys in free agency every year to inflated contracts are missing the point...but so are teams that sit on piles of cap space and expect to draft a half dozen or so starting calibre players in the draft. I think the only teams with as much cap space as us are the Browns and Raiders. Are people going to say they are shinning examples of being competitive franchises? It's true that Super Bowl champions aren't built exclusively through free agency but they also aren't built by completely ignoring it either. Personally I liked the Decker signing, liked that we addressed backup QB but think we whiffed big in the CB market and not just on DRC or Revis. I also like that we have 12 draft picks.
The thing that I don't understand about Idzik opponents is their issue in wrapping their heads around the fact that the Jets *did* address needs in free agency and without screwing the cap situation. They *did* strike a medium between all or nothing. That's how we got Eric Decker and Breno Giacomini and Mike Vick signed to deals totaling $60M dollars without significantly depleting the long-term cap reserve the team will need to re-sign the young players coming out of the build. Every time I hear somebody say "I just wish the Jets had signed a 1st-tier CB to a big deal, and I'd really like another guy who was available also" I think, if the Jets had done that they'd have splurged in free agency (again) and spent $120M in free agency (again) and we'd be right back where we started in 2007 when the last window kind of cranked open a bit but with huge flaws that caused it to slam shut on our fingers in a painful way. For the guys who think we should have spent more of the cap surplus: no, we really shouldn't. Just because you have money doesn't mean you should be running around spending it on whatever looks bright and shiny. Maintaining a strong fiscal position almost always leads to better things down the road. Spending like a drunken sailor usually leaves you lying in the gutter with a bad hangover. That's just what it is.
To be fair. The 3 signings you mentioned were replacements, not really adding anything to the overall product. Vick>Sanchez, Decker>=Holmes, Breno=Austin. I'm not sure of the money, but I believe we still came out in better shape making these 3 changes. So that still leaves us with no real improvements through FA, slight upgrades perhaps, but nothing earth shaking. I do agree we should re-sign our players who we can build around long term, but spending short money for rentals that could help a young QB develop into something, is not going to affect the long term plans of the team. Spending another 10-20 mil this year does not effect next years cap in a significant way, but it could help Geno from being boo'ed out of a game the way Mark was, and it may keep us from looking for yet another QB early in next years draft. If anyone is of the belief that the Jets "ruined" Sanchez, it wan't because we spoiled him early with too much talent.
Bellows beat me to it but he is right, especially with Breno. Again, for the hundredth time, nobody is saying to "spend like a drunken sailor" but if you want to use exaggerated metaphors there isn't any point in starving in the streets when you have a pocket full of cash just because MAYBE tomorrow you can get a discount sandwich. I am done trying to get people to stop thinking in extremes, I guess that's just the way some people's mind works in their day-to-day life. It's actually kind of sad.
The Jets aren't starving in the streets and where they're hungry at the moment (e.g. proven franchise QB) the commodity they want is not available and hasn't been on the free agent market in at least 7 or 8 years (Drew Brees). Just because you've got an ordinary meal in front of you or even one that is not so appetizing it doesn't mean that you should order a feast for a day at an extravagant cost. You're better off most of the time going and getting some staples to cook with and making a good tasting AND cost-effective meal. All free agent signings are replacements. When you're filling a vacant hole on the roster instead of a departing player it just means that you fell down on the job two years ago when you should have been replacing the guy who dropped out or have a long-term organizational dysfunction around a specific position.
Do I expect them to read it? Sadly no, but it's there all laid out for anyone who wants to. I'm certainly not claiming to have some gift of foresight here, I'm just saying Idzik's plan has been there for all to see if you look a little bit. I'd hope that the guy who was asking the questions that led me to post it read it, but I guess at least a few people did.
Okay Chris Clemons signed for 2 years and just 2.7M... How did the Jets not make this happen given the need for a safety who is adept in coverage? They must really like Antonio Allen or some free safeties in the draft
Thats part of it though. Tannenbaum mortgaged our future to trade up and use the #5 on Sanchez, binding us to his development. Idzik took Geno later, and therefore is committed to about 2 full years of development. What if Vick wins the battle, but gets hurt, and Geno comes in and stinks up the place? That means we have a young team with continuity and depth, and we will likely draft a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round in the 2015 draft. That QB will compete with Geno to start. Thats part of the key, not becoming overly committed to anyone you aren't totally sure of. The Jets have no interest in making earth shattering "upgrades" in FA. How can we be in better shape after making these changes, but not have real improvement? Is it fake improvement? The Jets goal is to improve through the development of our young players and adding talent through the draft. We had 5 rookie starters last year, and I expect most if not all of them to improve with a pro offseason. So we actually improved through FA, as you yourself just said we "came out in better shape," Add in improvement via youth development, and add in improvement via talent influx in the draft.
1. If Clemons was so "adept," he wouldn't be playing for $1.35 million/year. Thats basically a minimum league salary. 2. As I posted above, why throw around 2 million dollars when we have guys with youth and more upside already on the roster. Rex hasn't played a true FS since Ed Reed in Baltimore, and he has Josh Bush who has some cover skills. We already have Dawan Landry, Antonio Allen, Jaiquawn Jarrett, and Josh Bush on the roster, that's plenty good enough to go into the draft.
Statistics show he was one of the better cover safeties in the league. However, he's not a play-maker and not great against the run, which probably explains his market. He's a low risk signing at that price though, which is actually almost twice the minimum for a player with his experience (730K). I would have imagined him rotating with Allen and Landry pending the situation. But there are some young safeties on the roster and I would certainly like to see Antonio Allen take some steps forward, especially in coverage, this season. Would also like to see another guy added in the draft at some point.
Cimini expects the Jets to pursue Chris Johnson after his release. Interesting. http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/4743/chris-johnson What do people think of that?
If he can be had at value, why not? We'd have Ivory beating the crap out of guys all game, and bring in CJ on 3rd downs to burn up the tired defenders. Competition is good, but again it totally depends on the contract and also what Goodson's legal situation is. I wouldn't mind signing CJ and cutting either he or Goodson in training camp after they battle it out for 3rd down RB.
That would be a very well rounded running game for the Jets, I'm not sure how much he has left in the tank but he's a home run hitter and the Jets would lead the league in runningback dreadlocks
I think they probably will have interest, whether it lasts for more than one conversation is a different matter. It's all about what he will demand on the market.
Sorry, but a trade up 5 years ago (that netted us two very good years of football) should not throw a franchise into total collapse. There were many factors that led up to our troubles, but trading up for Mark was not top of the list. I said player wise we had a slight improvement, that being a healthy Decker vs. an ailing Holmes, financially we are in better shape, but that doesn't improve the roster. I'm on board with Idzik, really I am. I don't think we need to go after every money grubber in FA, but I don't think we need to scrounge the bottom of everyone's roster either. I think the draft is the best long term solution to improve the core of the Jets. However, I don't think we can rely on the draft alone to provide enough above average talent to win championships.
