You can't rely on the 5th round guy but you can't win with the 1st round guy once he begins to really impact the cap.
A 1st round guy (esp 18th pick) won't significantly impact the cap for 4-5 years due to the rookie wage scale. And if by that time he does command an extension at a high salary, then congrats, that means you hit a homerun with that pick Meanwhile the 5th rounder will be out of pro football within 3 years 9 times out of 10 .. so what good is that to rely on?
A 1st round guy (esp 18th pick) won't significantly impact the cap for 4-5 years due to the rookie wage scale. And if by that time he does command an extension at a high salary, then congrats, that means you hit a homerun with that pick Meanwhile the 5th rounder will be out of pro football within 3 years 9 times out of 10 .. so what good is that to rely on?
The 1st rounder would be out of football half the time within 3 or 4 years if he wasn't a 1st rounder. Teams hold onto their 1st round picks forever because it is so painful to admit they busted. The point of taking a CB later in the draft is that the position isn't as important as a bunch of other positions you can take in the 1st round. This means that when you do have to pay the guy you get full value for your cap dollars. Taking a 1st round CB is buying a low value position at a high price. Re-signing the guy if he's actually good just doubles the damage. What you should want is competent CB's who can hold their own most of the time. You want superstar defensive linemen and star linebackers in front of those guys because once the pressure hits the QB the CB's all become better. You want the run stopped and defensive pressure on the passer. That's how you build a great defense. To pay that great defense somebody has to give a lot on the cap and the guys you want to give are the last guys in the chain whose contribution only occurs after everything else has gone down in front of them. It's simple math. Pay the people who have the first impact the highest because their contribution always matters. Pay the people in the middle of the field next because they're in more plays than the guys on the edge. Get what you can out of the edge guys at the best possible price because 90% of the time their contribution means nothing in terms of the play resolution. We all know that Kyle Wilson is the luckiest CB on earth. We know this because we've seen him celebrate time and again over the years when the QB overthrew his wide-open man or the WR dropped a ball he should have caught. What we need to recognize is that we don't need a CB twice as good as Kyle Wilson. We need a CB 10% better.
In what universe is CB a "low value position?" I'm sorry, but that's absurd and patently untrue. It's even less true in Rex's D. A number of years ago one of the football sites had an article entitled something like "Two Deeps: A look at the Draft and Depth Around the League". It had a great graph showing the percentages of in which round (or as UDFAs) that all of the top two players on every NFL team was taken. With CBs, it was overwhelmingly 1st & 2nd rounds. Most CBs taken in the 3rd round and lower never developed into quality players. There were more UDFAs CBs who succeeded and played at a higher level than from the 3rd - 7th rounds. I used to have the article bookmarked on my old computer. I've not been able to find it recently. It's a shame. It's an eye-opening article, even though I'm sure the statistics change from year to year.
My gut says Cooks will be there at #18 and he'll be the guy, UNLESS Darqueze Dennard is somehow still on the board. Obviously, there are other players who could drop into the Jets lap unforeseen, but Dennard seems like the nearest to an 18 pick that might slide. If one of the top 4 QB's (Manziel, Bridgewater, Bortles, Carr) falls to the Jets level, I don't see how you pass on him either.
How pissed off would people be if Ebron Cooks and Lee are there at 18 and the Jets trade down and find a guard at the end of the first?
You are spot on. I watched him DESTROY my buckeyes last year. It wasn't even fair, the kid really put on a show and he did it all year long. He is a complete CB, he is someone that will be high on the Jets radar. It's rare for me to truly feel like someone coming out of college is just going to be amazing. This is one of those times, I truly don't think a team can miss with Dennard. I really don't. He is going to be something special. It baffles me that most experts have Gilbert ahead of this kid, I understand why, I also think it's stupid. Which is why I hate the combine so much. Vernon Gholston *cough, cough* - Stephen Hill *Cough, Cough*. So glad we seemingly have a GM that is more about the game tape, then combine tape. Picking a guy like Sheldon Richardson last year gives me a ton of faith in Idzik and Co. Almost everyone thought the Jets were out of their minds with that pick. Looks like a fantastic pick to me. Have a feeling we will be saying the same thing about Dee Milliner after next season too.
I like your argument but I think it is becoming more and more out dated. The NFL is evolving big time, especially after Seattle won it all last year, that is only going to increase the importance at the CB position. The NFL is becoming so pass dominate, it is going to be a must to find CB's that will be consistently effective against the pass. This also doesn't take into account the actual player. If you have a player that is simply the BPA, you take him, I don't care about the position because you can make the argument that not one position is going to win you a Super Bowl, period. It's a team game, the best way to have a solid team is to make the roster fruitful in any way you can, regardless of the position. If the BPA is CB at #18, you pull the trigger. Whoever we draft isn't going to solely get us to the SuperBowl, it doesn't matter, what matters is that we are making the absolute best decisions possible in regards to this football team. When it comes to the draft, you take the BPA, no matter what.
I'm a big Dennard fan, seen him dominate in the Big Ten. One concern about Dennard, he gets his hands on the receiver too prematurely on occasion. Gilbert gets the nod because he's a better athlete and a gifted returner. I don't think Gilbert will be a bust, he's an incredible talent. One comment about corners at the top of the draft, I firmly believe they have a lower bust potential compared to a lot of other positions...just my .02 cents.
That's where a team with a good scouting department wins and a team with a mediocre scouting department fails over time.
He was very dominate in the Big Ten. Every prospect has their flaws but Dennard has very few considering where he is in his football career. I would take him in a second. I don't think Gilbert will be a bust either. I just don't think he is in the same class as Dennard. We'll see.
If we end up signing DJax, here's the order I would go at 18 overall. 1. Darqueze Dennard 2. Eric Ebron If we were to trade back a bit 1. Cooks/Beckham 2. Dee Ford 3. Jimmie Ward
Gilbert isn't rated about Dennard because of the Combine. He's rated higher because he's a better athlete, is more explosive, has much better ball skills and is a great returner.
More than one would probably be pissed enough to drive to NJ and personally punch Idzik in the mouth.
Gilbert was not rated ahead of Dennard after the 2013 college season by most experts. That is false. There is a reason Dennard was awarded the Thorpe Award and not Gilbert. Gilbert is the better athelete.. That does not take away from Dennard as an athlete though, he still is one, a very effective one, just not a freak athlete. Gilbert absolutely does not have better ball skills, that is wrong on every single level. Dennards technique alone allows for him to have better ball skills. Who was the better CB in college throughout 2013? You still think it was, Gilbert? Fact is.. Gilbert fell off in 2012, he isn't nearly as consistent as Dennard has been. I think Gilbert will develop into a quality corner, I just don't think he will be the best corner in this draft.
Every scouting report I've read talks about what great ball skills Gilbert has. Conversely, I've not read one single scouting report that mentions Dennard having even good ball skills.
