The pertinent question actually *is* whether the Jets are improved from last year or not. We've still got the draft and late free agency and the odds are very good the Jets will be much improved over last year. The Jets were a 5-11 roster last year that went 8-8. The question is does the improvement this year get them to a legitimate 8-8 or do they do better than that? I'm in the under promise and over deliver camp so I'll say I think the Jets are going to win 8 to 10 games next year and have a 50/50 shot at a playoff spot.
Guess it's just an argument over semantics at this point. We agree that the team overachieved to get to 8-8 and looking at the roster now and likely after the draft projecting 8-10 wins seems reasonable. The point I was making is that if you're assessing playoff chances you need to consider the changes in your team's strength relative to those of your competitors rather than viewing your team in isolation. As to those changes specific to the Jets, I'm happy to see Idzik ramping up the aggression by actively pursuing impact players and even bringing in a couple, thereby making use of the cap space. In a vacuum I think he could've spent money on other players and probably achieved a more positive impact especially in the long term. However, there are other factors and unknowns about how available some of those players would have actually been to bring into the Jets rather than where they actually ended up going. This recent flurry of activity perhaps suggests that Idzik understood he needs to make use of the cap space for team needs and maybe guys like Asamoah and Ward or even some bigger ticket names truly were unwilling to come to the Jets for whatever reason. This strategy of FA activity is, of course, diametrically opposed to what you and many other veteran posters on here were calling for non stop. That is until the activity began and you all decided to start making 'exceptions.'
I agree with your clarfication. The trading up that was suggested was in the first round, which would require high and not low round picks to be packaged for such a trade up. But later round picks, yes, in principle might be packaged as a trade up move. Just not high picks. THe Jets will need all of those and then some.
I don't particularly like the pattern of the last week or two. I very much liked what was going on earlier than that, including the signing of Decker to a decent value contract for both him and the team. I don't want to see the Jets take on other team's problem children at this point. We've been there and done that (see Favre, Brett and Holmes, Santonio) and the momentary fluff isn't worth the long-term angst. I want to see the Jets develop our own young talent and contend that way. That's the way *all* dynasties are born. There has never been a free agent dynasty and there likely never will be. I want a shot at the real thing, not a momentary wow that leaves me feeling like I got the rug pulled out from under me again in 2 or 3 seasons.
Good use of the word diametrically. And an excellent point. Part of what concerned me about making too much of last year's record is the schedule in practice was far weaker than anticipated. Who knew Miami would have all those internal and pr problems, giving up in effect first to Buffalo, and then the Jets? Or that Cleveland would tank it, too? That TB was in complete disarray, that Atlanta would suck due to injuries? Well, maybe the Jets will catch similar breaks in the coming season. In any event I do think Vick is a real upgrade, while still very problematic going forward. Now that the Jets have signed him, I hope he stays healthy and gets it done, and by that I mean he puts out a level of performance that an average NFL starting Qb does. That would be a huge upgrade. The overall roster elsewhere is no better than last off season before the Revis trade, however.
I mean Decker is a real upgrade and while I don't agree with the Vick signing in principle, he likely is a better QB than Geno at this point if healthy which could mean a big impact on wins and losses this year though it leaves problems long term. On the one hand Geno could step up his game and beat out Vick which would be a good thing. On the other hand Vick could take over and then we'll be looking for a 1st round QB again while milking whatever Vick has left and keep Geno waiting in the wings until his rookie contract runs out in the meantime. The only real downside is the small percentage of the time Geno would have turned into a franchise QB but you destroy his development by benching him year 2 after starting year one and he never recovers. Hard to quantify that probability but it seems pretty remote, either he'll become a franchise QB or he won't independent of any Vick impacts the great majority of the time. In the absence of a real long term upgrade at guard or safety or even OLB this could turn into the type of flashy move that does win us games this year. I'd have to say the roster is stronger independent of those 2 signings anyway. It's basically the same players but the playing ability of Richardson, Milliner, Coples, and maybe Harrison should be much improved. Wilkerson may make an incremental improvement and since Brick and Mangold had down years I don't expect them to play much worse than that even though they're a year older. Returning Barnes and Goodson to the active roster could also make a sizable difference. You also have to anticipate adding at least 2 solid day one starters from this deep draft with a ton of picks. 3 if lucky, 4 would be wildly successful but not completely unthinkable. I don't see Walls as a downgrade over Cromartie of last year, he may actually be an upgrade too depending on how much he improves. It isn't wild improvement, but when you tack on Decker and the combination between healthy Vick or sophomore Geno the roster will be better especially after draft picks. The question for playoff contention then becomes whether it was enough of an improvement relative to the competition in the AFC, and the answer is we'll find out.
I agree that the big question is whether the team that takes the field in 2014 will be better than the one that did last year. We can't expect to have similar good fortune next year in terms of last-second calls getting us a shorter or second chance field goal attempt in two games. On the other hand, the addition of Vick will make it a lot less likely that we give away 3 - 4 games due to terrible QB play. Smith could improve enough to where he won't be that way anymore, or Vick could start, or Vick could replace Smith - either way, we will probably only give away 0 - 2 games due to horrific QB play (meaning those 3 - 4 turnover games.) If it turns out that Smith isn't NFL quality after all, the season is not necessarily lost. We can get to the playoffs either by Smith being in December 2013 form throughout a lot of the season, or if Vick plays 12ish games for us before getting hurt. The receiving corps is already better than last year's, with Decker being a big upgrade over the injury-plagued Holmes. We'll probably get another good wideout in the early rounds of the draft as well, which should make a huge difference. Holmes, Kerley, (and the usually ineffective) Hill were injured through huge chunks of the season, and Winslow was suspended for a 4 games. When you factor all that adversity in, there is reasonable hope that he can do a lot better with a healthier and more talented group of guys. He was very good in December, which is also encouraging. The D-line is great and improving, and although the secondary is concerning, we still have to see what moves are made between now and the regular season. Milliner should be better than last year. It's also of course important to consider that other teams are all also trying to get better. But, every year there seem to be a few teams that everyone thought would take a big leap forward, yet they flop miserably. (The Bucs and Falcons fall into that category. And the Steelers and Giants both got off to absolutely horrible starts.) Sometimes teams unexpectedly turn things around very quickly too, so it's hard to predict that kind of thing. Tom Brady is getting older, and New England is probably going to shift more towards a defense-oriented team, and not a Brady-oriented team. Gronkowski is coming off of a December 2013 ACL tear, meaning he will probably not play until November and therefore we will probably only have to face him once. They will have a better defense with Revis, but probably won't get as many interceptions. They lost Spikes, and might part ways with Wilfork, who in any event could end up being worse than normal because of his injury and age - so they should be easier to run against, which plays into our offense's strength. Their offensive line is not nearly as good as it once was, and their center is not good. The Jets have a solid chance in those games, though the Brady factor is so big that we can still easily lose both of those games. The Dolphins' o-line is a complete mess- they have to replace three starters in Incognito, Martin, and Jerry. That group gave up 58 sacks last year. Their center, Pouncey, also might get suspended and miss some of the opening games. They've got a lot of locker room distractions, and although Tannehill is solid, I could see the team taking a step backwards. The Bills have a new DC, lost Byrd, and don't have a quarterback or a strong backup option. Manuel was injured a lot, and no better than Geno Smith when he was healthy. No big surge of improvement towards the end - and he had better receivers in Stevie Johnson and others. If Spiller doesn't return to 2012 form, their offense is going to be in trouble, and we don't really know what they'll be like on defense. We also don't truly know what the Jets are going to be like. I have the feeling that Rex will manage to coach around the secondary's shortcomings and maybe not be as blitz-happy in light of the fact that his DBs will not be as good as he's used to, and also in light of the fact that he can generate pressure and sacks with the line alone. The defense should be great against the run- the big question here is whether it will still readily give up those home runs. We have to see if Coples can take that next step, and also how things shape up at safety. Allen is pretty promising, D. Landry is okay I guess. Pace should be fine, and Harris bounced back last year, so hopefully he will play well again this year also. The offense should certainly improve - Ivory seemed to emerge as a strong RB, and he didn't get hurt. Powell is solid. We may get MJD or some other running back- so we should have good production there again. The receiver situation, like I said, should also be a lot better. The QB situation should be better with Vick being able to take the helm if that's appropriate, and with Smith having more time to learn and better targets. The offensive line is concerning; we will have two of the most penalized guys in the league next to each other, Colon and Breno, and they could become the Penalty Pals. We also don't know if this will be the year when Brick and/or Mangold takes a significant step back- though Mangold's mental skills and blitz detecting skills mean that he should have a long career since he doesn't just rely on physical ability. The other area I'm a bit concerned about is tight end- Cumberland is good but he's not that game-changer kind of guy. Winslow got suspended for substance issues last year, and then arrested for lewd conduct in the offseason and apparently used some substances that he should not have used, so he is pretty likely to get suspended again. I don't know that we should bother keeping him, he had less than 400 yards - but other than Cumberland the other TEs are largely untested. Special teams wise, Folk was fantastic last year. But I don't know if he'll be consistent, because he has struggled with that in the past. He's in his 30s and just had the best season of his career - but on the other hand, after a season like that, what else can you ask for from him? Clearly deserves a chance to show that that wasn't a fluke. We did not have a decent punter last year, and a defense-oriented team should strive to be good on that front. We also struggled with returns for most of the season - maybe some of the special teams problems were from losing Westhoff to retirement, but those are some areas we should be able to address that might help us win in closer games. A good punter should definitely be a priority, and it would be nice if we use one of our 6th round picks to get one. We'll have to see how the team shapes up after the draft, it should be very interesting, and hopefully we will get a game-changing player on offense and defense.
I get where you're coming from, but what I think you fail to realize or at least give enough weight to is the ability to consider the process of building through the draft as independent and using a fair percentage of cap space on FA as an added bonus to shore up immediate weaknesses and maybe provide a good long term contributor or three in the process. Teams that mess up in free agency are the ones that go overboard and give too many bloated long term contracts that come back to bite you in years 3-4. If you build strongly enough through the draft for a few years in a row, you don't need FA because you keep paying a new crop of players that come of age after you've grown them. Right now that isn't the case with this team. Last year was a good draft and this year's could be just as good but the depth of players isn't there yet and the roster needs an infusion of ready made talent to bridge the gap. There is a happy medium between using cap space without crippling your fiscal future instead of going overboard on spending or not spending at all. Even the best franchises come up with some duds for draft classes occasionally, and as contracts come off the books they add contracts as needed. Plus there are a whole host of other situations to be active in FA i.e. Denver making a 2-3 year push on the back of the end of Peyton's career, etc. but FA acquisitions are a normal part of a successful process for any franchise including a team in the Jet's situation. Instead of overreacting people should think out of the box somewhat and consider the middle ground.
We were an 8-8 that you rarely see happen, -97 point differential on the year and 8-8 was almost absurd. I may already have done the search on this but I don't have the energy to look it up right now. I'm willing to guess not more than a couple of teams have done this since the 16 game schedule was adopted.
D'oh! I knew he was injured but I didn't know what happened. What did he do, play with a wolverine?! I know it is probably not as bad as it sounds but that list makes it sound like his damn leg nearly twisted off.
While there is certainly merit to much of this analysis, what it leaves out is the injury factor, and other situations that keep players off the field, such as the Winslow suspension. If Kerley and Holmes were totally healthy last year, and Winslow had not gotten suspended, would the receiver corps have really been that much worse than the current roster? I think not. Now of course there is a reasonably good prospect that the Jets could get an additional receiver to start from the draft. But until it does... The other point about injuries is we don't know which Jet players on the current roster will not stay on the field through the season. Will any key players miss time? Odds are the answer is yes. Finally about Walls I see Idzik is now signaling the Jets will do something signficant to add to the roster at cornerback, as I suspected they would. Translated that means the FO does not really want to start Walls, which they should not. He's not that good.
You are absolutely correct here. Wins are what counts in the standings, but if you want to look at past records as an indicator for the future, it makes sense to factor in the points differential number. A team that gets its wins by barely squeaking by and losing in blowouts is not as good as a team that wins convincingly and sees its losses come from last second breaks against them, perhaps including a bad call by the zebras or some freak play.
I have huge concerns with our ol. We have been fortunate regarding injuries but at some point age, accident etc will rear up and we have piss poor depth. My guess is that elite free agents will be acquired when we have a legit roster. Given it takes a few yrs for ol and our need coupled with our desire to run it's easy to see 4 ol inbound this draft. Rex will be blitzing heavily to mask our weak secondary. So if I were this gm I'd be damn sure to allaign best available player to major deficiency considering our free agency approach. I'd also consider trading a fourth this yr for a third next yr given our position. This yr is a throw away, if we were in win now mode we most certainly should have upgraded cb, te etc. Since we aren't close however, if fine with long term approach so long as Rex is not scapegoated. If geno shits the bed we can go hard for legit qb next yr.
...Which is the argument for going OL in the first round. While not as good at the top as last year's draft, There is a crop of very good OL this year, and with the rest of the talent being so much better there's a good chance a solid one falls to us. Elite tackles are much harder to find out of the 1st round than, for example, WR's and TE's, and getting ahead of the need at OL is more important than it is at just about any other position.
As much as I see a need for OL being beefed up, both in the short run and longer run, I think both receiver and Cb are more pressing needs.
Debatable. I think at this point the need at receiver isn't as bad as everyone thinks with the addition of Decker, although adding another option either at WR or TE would be very nice. We'll still be able to add a quality player at these positions in the 2nd. Our CB and FS spots could absolutely use upgrades, but if we're looking at parting ways with Brick after this season, we'll only have one OL that you should have any confidence in as of this point (and Mangold's getting older) AND no answer at left tackle. If you think our offense is bad now, what will happen when Geno (or whoever is playing QB) is worried about having their head taken off every play.
I think the concern with the O-Line is relatively unfounded, Idzik drafted 3 O-linemen in the draft, signed two mid-level FAs this offseason, and with 12 picks in the draft we will almost certainly draft a couple more. This offseason is a major step in Idzik's tenure, more specifically this draft I should say. He has 12 pics in what is considered a deep draft, so making multiple signings before the draft is not a good idea. I'm less concerned about getting more than 2 starters for 2014 out of this draft, and more concerned with getting starters and key role players for 2015 and beyond. Every player Idzik drafted last year is still on the roster, and if he intends not to just waste picks we will have 12 new players on the roster just from the draft. Don't forget it doesn't really matter if you draft a guy in a position of "need" because there are players who if drafted improve other areas by association. A perfect example of this is taking Richardson in the first last year; most people would have said DT is not a position we should spend a first round pick on, but in taking the BPA on the board in Rich, we got an impact player and subsequently moved Coples to fill the OLB spot, a position of "need." In this coming draft, I see no reason to expect us not to go BPA again. I think BPA for us could be just about any position, OL, WR, TE, OLB, ILB, CB, or S. I kind of doubt DT will be the BPA at 18 just because this is a more shallow year in terms of DT talent, which is good for us I think. If Gilbert or Dennard are available at 18, and the FO thinks one of them is the BPA, it will have been unnecessary to sign an expensive CB. Even if we get a CB in the second or 3rd, competition with Wilson and Walls will help bring the most productive player into the starting lineup. What Lee is there at 18 or somehow Evans is, and the FO considers them BPA? Then we've signed a WR to a contract who will likely play very little. In a draft so deep at WR, why sign a guy when we could get a couple solid contributors? Hill and Nelson will be competing with I'm sure at least 1 or 2 rookie WRs, and all we need are successful role players. We could go OLB or S or even ILB if that were the case, although ILB as BPA in the first is unlikely as well. Why not bring in 12 new players, see what we have, and if necessary make moves after the draft?
It is a fair point but I think there are a few mitigating factors keeping that from being a compelling argument. First I think you have to view the boatload of draft picks as doing a lot for depth in case of injury. Assuming no trades of picks I think Idzik could adopt a strategy of spending 2-3 later picks on lower ceiling guys that are more NFL ready at thin positions. The starting roster will be almost automatically improved from the first two picks and you could draft a couple late round guys that might come in and be ok as backups year one even if they're never going to be a great starter. Plus with a bunch of cap space remaining there is a lot more ability to bring in whatever FAs are available as needed due to injury. The depth was already a huge issue for a cash strapped rebuilding team, Hill was meant to be a starting WR going in and whatever expectations he might have had it turned out to be a complete joke. Then losing Santonio became doubly painful, not that he played particularly well even when he did manage to get himself into a game. The result was starting two WRs essentially off the street, that won't be the case this year even if the best WR goes down for the season. Then you take Barnes and Goodson out for the season, lose Winslow for significant time, Cromartie being hopeless, I think the impact of injuries for the year were significantly higher than you'd reasonably expect going into any given year. This year's roster should expect average injuries which would mean less impactful, and the added depth and cap flexibility should make the team better able to address whatever injuries do come better than last year. Being skeptical of Walls certainly is the popular opinion within the organization, and maybe that's a fair and accurate assessment. However, I thought he rarely if ever got burned despite giving up a decent number of big passes. The thing was that when he'd give up 20-30 yards it seemed like he was within a few inches of getting his hand in to deflect the pass maybe 80% of the time. It might be overly optimistic but since that was his first year with significant playing time and he's only 25 I think there is some chance he could get a bit craftier and potentially break up a good percentage of the passes he came close but failed on last year. Starting him at CB certainly isn't ideal especially across from another developmental player in Milliner but I would've been willing to make a big gamble on Walls if Ward or Byrd were brought in, devoting those extra resources to the defensive backfield at safety and hoping Walls pans out. Since that didn't happen another CB probably should be brought in, but again if Jackson ends up being signed then maybe you consider gambling on Walls again. It would be a huge win if he turns out to be an effective starter, and he shouldn't be too far below average if not.
