hey jay, what is keeping it from turnng west? is there a front or high pressure ridge? what would i be looking for on the map to indicate that?
FJF,,,,,i am not sure what the exact correct meteorological term is,,,,but I believe Jay called it " Devine intervention ",,, On a serious note what is the latest on this thing ? Local tv guys keep saying we are watching a coastal storm and that " parts of our area might get snow " but they do not seem too concerned. / alarmed !
Googled a few weather blogs and seems as if they all see a storm but call the track murky or undecided and are afraid or not ready to commit as far as what might happen. One blog said this thing has trended more west and that was a recent update as of this morning,,,,,,, FJF I have more faith in you than I do in these clowns that get paid to do this,, ,and Jay your track record speaks for itself ! Keep em coming and us posted,,,especially if this turns into a scary event / situation.
hey cbg, from what i see it hasn't really come west enough for anything more than some snow flakes and wind for us. now is there something out there that makes it drift more west and we get a big hit? no idea,have to ask jay. i could be wrong but seems like the models have been pretty consistent with it staying just off the coast enough to spare us. next run is this afternoon, i will be checking it. and hopefully jay will too
Well FJF that would be good news ,,,,,we don't need the beaches or any ones houses getting beat up,,,,keep me coming guys
Its complicated FJF...read about tilts...postive tilt..negative tilt.neutral tilts. When the southern storm is coming from the gulf, it positive to neutral ..meaning its heading straight out to sea. Once the trough..the cut out jet stream from the cold front north dips down, the storm will either be pulled in by the storm reacting to the trough..the dip...or it goes negative...turns north/north east by the phase of the northern storm. I know thats sounds rough..but..im trying to figure out a better way to explain it. The main problem is that the storm is being pulled north too late because of the setup to the west/north of the storm. Ok..better way..you would need that high pressure to relax up north..to come in more west to allow the storm to pivot north. Believe it or not, only the EURO is allowing this to happen. Later this evening I will pull a few models here and post them to better explain this. And you are totally correct...the models have been consistent..except the EURO..which is allowing the storm to go negative..turn up the coast faster..and allows the phasing to happen a bit earlier. Complicated setup. The timing has also been moved up to Tuesday/Tuesday night. This too is allowing the things needed to happen to bring it up the coast not enough time. Now..tonight we hit the all important 48 hour mark. GFS just came in even more east..and I would throw out the GFS at this point..it makes zero sense...so lets see what the 2PM EURO brings because the EURO actually brings us 1 to 4 inches west to East...it brings close to 4 to 6 NYC..it brings central LI 6-9..and eastern L.I. 8 TO 12. Cape Cod? 12 -18...and Boston 6-10.
No..NO Marshall..thats the EURO last night. You have many models showing Boston not getting much at all. Thats the EURO. Now...its my favorite model..but has little support right now. Heres the deal..it comes out at 2pm and this is what I will go by before it comes out. If it trends east, its safe and over for many. If stays the same or trends a bit west....I would be very on top of this..very. My gut tells me that it will not go with the other models..and that it will continue to show a big snow storm for anyone east of I95..and north of NYC.
Slight east on the EURO...basically 2 to 8 as you go north..but a 952....952...952...low off the coast of Cape Cod...unheard of. Thought we would have agreement..but no agreement other then nyc and south looks..AS OF NOW..to be safe from the big stuff. Be on tonight.
No...not at all. If you go by the EURO...perhaps...but no. Im giving the highest amounts as of now for Boston..so well..presently? Some snow..but not the bomb about 200 miles EAST of you.
Marshall..I cant post pics but big storm for Boston? No...snow? Yes...depending on the model? as low as 3 as high as 8...but 200 miles east of you is about 3 feet of snow..over water..lol.
This is a no fishing storm...no way no way. Feel bad for those guys though...lots of respect for them. FJF>..A BIT...the ops did but the esembles stayed on track...Im dying to see tonights models..I dont know..tonight we hit the dreaded 48 hour timeframe where stupid things have happened. I really REALLY am hoping not...but I have a crappy sense on this only because it makes little sense this far out to sea...but we shall see.
Im telling you...I just looked at the ensembles..this does not make sense how east this storm is. I hope to figure out why Im wrong tonight...but I cant find the answer. This should be pulled closer to the coast. I would take the models over a gut feeling any day of the week...let see tonight and hopeuflly we can put this to rest tonight.
