Now here is the EURO Ensemble. In the past with true noreasters...Miller A storms which this one will be...the EURO has a slight south bias in the long range only to pull closer to the coast as we get closer. If thats the case with this storm..you can just take the number to the south and right along the coast and drag them north and west..and you see the potential:
thought so jay. i knew what i was looking at didn't add up. so you think we can dial this in around sunday nite monday morning or is it going to be right down to the wire?
I would think by Sunday nite FJF but...well...the reason I hesitate is that this model break down 48 hours before a storm makes you less confident. I really think its because of the storms this year..remember we talked about west to east storm..and this being a more traditional winter storm...gulf of mexico to maine? I think for that reason, the models will do much much better with this storm. So long story short..yeah...Sunday nights EURO run at 2am..well Monday morning should lock in areas by at least 80 percent..at least. And most importantly...you started looking at models what...2 months ago? Follow how much bullshit is out there? A blogger saying every model is in agreement? Scary stuff...its only the weather but just goes to show you how crazy it is out there.
and the GFS came west...still too far off the coast but west. This storm as modeled is VERY intense...very very strong storm and really needs to be watched..holy crap.
Thanks Jay and FJF for the explanations,,,good stuff,,,,,now I am going to be honest,,,,even though u have talked about this for days , CBG ain't pumped yet,,,..I will wait with cautious optimism ,,,,,and look for the weekend updates,,,,,but if u are saying this stuff on Monday then I might start to tell the kids,,,,same stuff Tuesday ? Might inflate the tubes,,,,,lol,,,keep em coming,,,,,,ps ch4 just said "watching coastal storm for Tuesday" hmmmmm
Ok Jay, what's with conjuring up these late winter storms man... ? Your forecasts are killing me! Already the spring Spawning season is most likely pushed into April now thanks to all this cold salty run off in the lakes. Offshore water temps still haven't made 40deg yet. The locals are calling for "snow showers" next week after 60deg temps this weekend... I like winter and snow as much as anyone, but this is starting to get painful. Its so bad now that I'm about to tie some thread on a paperclip and drop it into my fish tank to see if I can get one of my angel fish to bite! Even Ms. C is looking a bit couped up and ready to go hook something. Is this next storm the last one? As the song used to go: "Tell me lies, tell me sweet little lies..."
CMAN..HEAR YOU..and if you have been reading sir, this is the last one. Now...checked long range at seem right around april 1st the temps explode up..70s..actaully 2 to 3 days into April....but Im with you bud...and this is the finale. If there is no heavy snow with this, we cant get around the temps..it will be cold during this period. Now, as far as this storm, while it has trended closer to the coast it has not made the final jump....and it may never. So, will check tonight but there is nothing to update.
Cman so long as mrs c does not hook you with one of those paper clips all is good. Now if it MUST be cold it might as well snow,,,and if it MUST snow it might as well be a lot,,,,,keep us posted,,,..I'm listening you have my undivided attention ! The setup right now too far out to sea ? Brushed? Buried ? Nada ? Keep em coming
LOTS to talk about tonight..LOTS...and this is amazing how close this is to a historical storm. The storm out to sea right now is showing close to record pressures...under 955. The difference of 100 miles is incredible. Since this is the last storm of the there...we will have great coverage. Will post all the models and their projected locations so you guys and girls can see how close this is..and how strong its currently being shown to be..and its only 4/5 days away. Sampling will improve in 36 to 48 hours and if the sampling would draw this closer to the coast....you have no idea. Now, many at this point of the year would root against this. ME TOO...UNLESS..unless...its historical..and we can talk about that later tonight.
Oh..and CMAN with his fishing. CMAN..my lake just started breaking up and is about 80 percent clear. Still some frozen parts. Im with you there bud..but there are MANY signals that spring may come on big time after this storm. I mentioned several days ago? that it might come on slower..but some signals are that it will go 60s real fast.
We are on the same page CBG...all or nothing. The reason Im really on this is that the way its modeled...the way the current path is setup is usually a problem getting snow to us with Miller A storms if this were January. Im having a real tough time agreeing with the models of this staying south/out to sea in March. Then again, we should have a tough time even having a storm of this magnitude on the radar for March..late March. So...does the high pressure ushering in all the cold air next week do its thing and keep this off the coast. The one thing we can not get around is that it will be very cold next week for the end of March...at least until Thursday/Friday...then temps rebound towards spring.
i am really on the fence with this one, i want to think "just bring it on onelast good snow before the warm weather" but i drive past one of the trout streams everyday and its running so high already. i don't see how its fishable in a week with another storm and than some good rain coming behind it. tough call for me
Yep. Tough call. Heres the way I see it...IF THE MODELS TENDED CLOSER TO THE COAST(Sorry for the caps..I hope everyone knows I use it for emphasis and not screaming..lol) but if they do and a huge storm would hit..this is how it would play out for me: A. Night before...models change and big blizzard is coming..wow...this should be cool! B. Storm starts..the next 24 hours it will pour snow..wow..cool. C. First 8 inches on the ground...lets get the snow blower rolling...umm..its cool..and its cold. D. Going to hit the driveway for the second time...hmmm..those mounds are pretty high already..might have snow on the side of the driveway until the middle of April...cool...?.... E. Storm is winding down...that was some storm!! Now what. F. Next day...no work! No school for the kids!! The kids are home!!?? Spend half the day shoveling snow with temps in the 50s? G. Back to work...hmmm..thats a lot of snow. Wow...that really sucks. So...thats how most storms go for me.
Ok..here we go. Lets see why this is: A. Too far out to sea right now..but getting a bit closer B. An amazing storm to track still. Pressures are in the historical category C. Model differences..and we still have tonight's GFS, EURO etc. D. Winds will be hurricane force just 250 miles off the coast of NJ...150 to 200 miles off the coast of L.I./Conn. and about 100 miles off the coast of MASS and about 50 miles off the coast of Cape Cod. Canadian Model. Huge storm just off the coast. Believe it or not the next run shows it deepening to below 960 off the coast of Cape Cod: Accuweathers 2 possible tracks. By posting these, they are assuming you are idiots. The RED track is accurate and would deliver a massive storm for everyone within 100 miles of the coast with all big cities from Philly to Boston on north getting 12-24 inches of snow and winds gusting over 60 miles an hour. The ORANGE track is where they assume you are an idiot. There is no such track on any model. If that track were to be correct..areas north like Cape Cod would have partly sunny skies with winds between 3 and 5 MPH. The ORANGE track should be almost the same as the RED track just over the letters they have written POSSIBLE TRACK...POSSIBLE TRACK IS ACTUALLY the the path most models have now The distance between the center of the storm and the coast. Now again...a 150 mile shift WEST would make this a game changer..and snow haters...you want THIS track. This track would bring 1 to as much as 8 inches for Eastern L.I. 1 inch for NW NJ. Very Eastern Conn. could get 3 to 6...Cape Cod could get over 8...and Nova Scotia could get over 14. Now you understand how the ACCUWEATHER track number 2 is nonsense. Finally from HPC and the NWS...and thats why you cant throw this storm out yet. They usually use middle ground thinking and as you can see, they have the storm more west then all the models...and the reason I think this could still shift west. Their thinking is the storm phases earlier and gets pulled closer to the coast...I still agree.
If that Euro model from last night is accurate, I think I'll breakdown and cry. I'm reading weather.com's report and they fully admit that since the storm is five days out, they honestly have no idea. Nice to see them admit it.
Here we are...March winding down..and you GD have the highest chances of all getting a big snowstorm. Dont worry bud..while I think it could come west..the chances that this goes a bit more east are very VERY possible too.
Thats what I meant by going further east GD...and it could bud. Keep the faith! and your dog argument in that thread is dead on! Good job.
