Is there any chance the stupid polar vortex keeps its ass in Canada and leaves us alone next week? These temps just suck so much.
the chances of this storm being too far south is on the table and possible SS..I do not see how we miss out on the cold temps next week. That, I cant see. The only good news is that after this storm..perhaps several days after, the temps start to modify. Im really going to check the long term temps for the next 3 weeks tonight. I think, in everyones head...a snowstorm that disrupts a day or two sucks....temps that are well below normal are whats keeping most in a funk...everyone has had it. Now, Friday and Saturday temps will actually be pretty good..mid 50s..maybe 60. So..we are closing in on the end SS...I promise.
now, jay being the seasoned vet would say "way to early,way to early to make any kind of statement on where this goes, a week out right? no way we can nail this thing down, but it's loaded with potential so we keep tracking" but i just figured out what all those bowls of spagetti he posts up here mean so i am going to throw it out there. right now cbg you would be working a 5 day work week. no break in the middle of the week. euro and gfs have it drifting out to sea. still a ways to go though
We'll FJF I hope that is not the case and I get at least one more day off to have some fun with the kids,,,plus I have this lawyer guy that is real skeptical about these snowstorms / long range forecasts ,,,,hopefully the rookie has it wrong and the seasoned vet corrects your minor misjudgement ,,,,,lol,,,,,if not I go officially into spring mode ,,,,,and we call it a winter,,,,,keep em coming guys until they ain't coming no more !
i'll tell ya what cbg, its close, and i am starting to route for you to get your wish, i mean if its going to be the last 1 and we are going to be snow free for the next 8-9 months anyway, why not? one more big bang before we breakout the lawnmowers and hit the swiming pools right?
THIS ! exactly FJF,,,,,and besides even if we get buried it will be gone in a few days with the warmer temps and all so why not ? Keep em coming guys
FJF...very correct on two things. Yes, its a bit too far off the coast right now and also this could be huge with a very minor swing. Here is the reason I think it will come closer to the coast. At some point March, especially the end of March needs to act like the end of March and not middle of January. Now some will say if thats the case then we should all get no snow. Problem with that is if the current setup is correct...the VA/NC coast gets a pretty big hit of snow...doubt it. Right now, I would put the center of the storm about 150/200 miles off the coast. For this time of the year thats about 75/100 miles too far off the coast for our area to get hit with the big stuff. This winter, that kind of adjustment is nothing. Now what needs to change for this to be a huge storm up the coast. This storm is totally fueled by two systems. One coming down from Alberta Canada (where you get the phrase alberta clipper..or a clipper storm) that is shown to come down through central US and ends up sliding off the coast of VA/NC. Another storm in the Gulf of Mexico will slide up the coast. Do the two phase near Cape Hatteras? Do they phase 100 miles off the coast. Do they partial phase? Do they totally miss. Rarely do you look at a model this far off and say it will do this..not that. I think the whole thing will depend on where the polar high to the north...the cold air source for this storm...where it dips down to. FJF has made that point of can this be pushed too far south or north. This is the reason this cant come too far north and be a major rain producer. IF THE HIGH DIPS DOWN TOO FAR SOUTH, the phase occurs too far out to sea. Thats really it. Now some ensembles from the GFS show a storm of huge proportions...60 mile an hour winds and heavy snow. Some show a phase too late. This is one of those storms that might not be modeled well until Sunday night. NWS is seeing the potential this far out: .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. SPOTTY ICING MAY BE OCCURRING AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET THIS EVENING...MAINLY TREES AND WIRES. PATCHY DENSE FOG. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TUESDAY, THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS HIGH VARIABILITY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN OUR AREA STARTING SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY.
Stay on top of this batman n robin,,,,,I mean Jay and FJF ,,,,if it hits us great,,,and I hope it does,,,if not,,,let the spring festivities begin ! Keep em coming guys,,,,ps ,,ch2 Lonnie Quinn just said " slight chance of snow on Tuesday " hmmmmmmmmmm
Still a bomb about 100 miles too far off the coast. While its too far off the coast this is a huge powerful sub 960 storm that ends up in the Gulf of Maine as a monster. I wouldnt even now how to speculate if this storm does what it has the potential of doing. Now potential = less then 50%. Still, the chances of a storm like this forming and going up the coast each year is less then 10%. So its modeled and there. Now the good news is that THIS IS IT. There is nothing big on the horizon. While there is no 70 degree temps on the horizon, temps should gradually begin to equal spring in the next 15 days. Its over guys. Just need to see if winter plays one last trick on us before it fades away. While the setup screams of less then 50%, the POTENTIAL makes it higher IMHO. While a few things need to happen for this to phase and ride up the coast...a few things for a storm isnt a long shot. Considering a few players are still hanging out close to the North Pole (true story) I can promise you this...the models do not have the locations right..at the moment. Some time Saturday, the players begin to get full sampling and then we can say lets move on till next year...or we have something to track. Gut says we have something to track.
And now you guys know when Lonnie Quinn or anyone says that....that it really means more then just a slight chance of snow. What a Lonnie Quinn should say...should..and you guys know this drives me crazy..is that the reason there is a slight chance of snow is that a huge storm will be to our east and may either crush us...brush us..or go out to sea. If Im a normal Joe hearing that, to me, it means that some little ole storm might dump some little ole snow. That is not why there is a slight chance of snow. Before, you guys would think maybe Im crazy...but a guy like FJF who looks at models too sees the monster out there...and the question is does it get pulled closer to the coast. Ridging...track...etc.
and the EURO came well west...in fact..and this sounds like a broken record..but it buries Philly with over 15" of snow..winds over 50. Brings the over 8" line to NYC and that is a huge trend. So, while this is the grand finale, we do have one last storm to track. Being that tonight is Thursday night, will be on during the Ranger game. We will post model comparisons and accum maps. So tonight is learning night and a chance..a chance to follow what could be a really big storm Now CBG..and to your buddy..whenever you tell your friends about storms the safe way to do is to tell the truth..you tell them we are keeping an eye on a storm that will dump heavy snow anywhere from VA to Cape Cod. Its when you say WE ARE GOING TO GET a big snow storm that could get you into trouble. Right now..per MODELS, the jackpot zones are as follows: Eastern MD: 6-10 DE: 8-10 Philly: 12-16 South Jersey 10-14 Central Jersey: 8-12 North Jersey: 6-8 NYC: 8-12 Lower Hudson Valley: 4-8 L.I.: 10-14 Western Conn: 3-6 Eastern Conn: 8-12 Western Mass: 2-4 Central Mass: 4-8 Eastern Mass: 8-12 Cape Cod: 12-18 Now the numbers are low to high...WEST TO EAST...so North Jersey for instance is 6 for western NNJ and 8 for Eastern NJ. This numbers are from the EURO MODEL...5 DAYS OUT. So, to just tell anyone we are getting a foot of snow is not accurate. This is potential. Again..lol..and I have to repeat this...so do not come on here and post "oh crap..I cant believe Im getting between 8 to 12...that is not what we are saying. Ok..we have all the nonsense above and cant believe we have to keep repeating that but with all of that said, huge potential storm..and this is the type of MARCH storm that does come around every 5 years or so. So we will track it. Maybe by tomorrow I will drop those numbers 80% because if the models do that, we WILL put it down here like we always do. Lets see tonight!
Jay I'm the guy that gets disappointed BIGTIME when anyone says we are " going to get " so I know better and NEVER say that,,,,,you trained me we'll and always say we could or might,,,I even call it potential and events,,,,,but I stray,,,,,keep em coming Jay and Kato,,,,it is the last horrah so hopefully out like a lion,,,lol
Jay if this gala event were to happen and piss most off and make CBG happy when are we talking ? Is it Tuesday or Wednesday,,,,,? Keep em coming !
wednesday cbg. maybe late tuesday nite but definitely wednesday would be your day off. now just read a blog a friend sent me and it says all models in agreement for this. but i look at the recent gfs and it still has it too far east, euro is cbg's friend though, but i don't see the agreement. am i missing something jay?
Thanks FJF,,,,,,I understand we are still far away,,,,,but keep em coming,,,,,besides after this one we can all take a well needed break and enjoy the warmer weather,,,,,,but ,,,,,,,before that,,,,,lol
hmmm...now I wouldnt agree with that blog FJF..not one bit. In fact, if you want to get technical, the EURO is by itself with this hitting the east coast with big snows. Now I would trust the EURO over any other model but if whoever that blogger is states every model..have to call it the way we see it...thats a flat out lie.
I do follow several bloggers. In this day and age and I guess it could be said about this thread and myself, its important to really look around and check and double check. I read a blog...a popular blog..that said this storm has a 37.5 chance of...ready for this? Lets play guess: A. over a foot of snow B. over 6" of snow C. missing us D. Being a historic snow storm. D is the answer. I mean..you cant make this stuff up. Now if you want to say the models are showing an historic storm...go for it..I do it when the models say that..but 37.5% chance? Here is what I will always do..and I will not lie..I am taking this to the next level next year...Im going to give you the models...show their biases...and make a decision. If I have been right a LITTLE bit more then the next guy and I have explained this vaguely to FJF its that the key is model biases. If the GFS shows a storm too far south but has a north bias...the GFS is showing nothing right? If the EURO is showing a bomb but just off the coast but has a south bias...you better watch out. The biases are something you have to really take into account over 5 days out. And you know what all of the guarantees? NADA...because everyone..sing it...no weather guy will every be right even 80 percent of the time. So..thats my rant for bloggers that lie to get hits. If I were to post here "dont listen to what you see out there!! We will get 3 feet of snow next Wednesday!!!" Guess who would be happy? Petro..lol..because a few more people might pop in here. Thats why when that asshole a few weeks ago came on here and said we always go hysterical with storms...I always..ALWAYS back up comments with models. If no model says snow and someone say blizzard...that might work one time..maybe 2.
