Hey Jay,,,,,,all winter long I have written on facebook about your warnings for potential snow storms,,,,soooooooo many people are now followers or ask me " what does your buddy say about this week" but to show you that even when it comes to the weather it is a what have you done for me lately thing,,,one guy in particular is all over me / you about the last few,,,even though I wrote a day or so in advance when you said it was gonna be south or north and was the case,,some people are what they are,,,that said I am hoping to get buried one more time and for you to hit the bullseye as you did most of the winter so I can give him " what for " whatever what for is,,,,,so ,,,,,keep em coming but if it's over so be it,,,,rant over
hey cbg, hopefully we will hear from jay later, but just checked the models and that storm is still there,TWC putting out 40% chance of snow on wednesday. a week out thats bold for them. just like the last 2 weeks, someone between d.c. and boston is going to be hit pretty good or bad depending on the view point
Fla ,,,btw you are doing a nice job picking up on this stuff and reading the maps n models,,,,,thanks for the info
FJF...YOU ARE THE MAN BUDDY. Sorry guys..but great update by FJF as usual. Checking models now...busy 48 hours...sorry.
Good read FJF..very good read. Yeah...this is something to watch..very closely. What is amazing for this time of the year is the temps. The temps..the temps. Now this storm is a true MILLER A right now. I know I have said that several times this year and some have switched to a Miller B...but this storm has a single storm entering off the northern coast of CA and sweeping down to the gulf of mexico while the sub tropic jet taps into it with a possible phase off the coast of N.C. All I can say this far out is Hmmm...big HMMMM. Now I know FJF will ask the million dollar question so lets get to it. How does this miss us? Well, like the last storm, south. A double phase that rides up the coast and is just a decent snow event. Third I dont see and thats a rain event. That is not going to happen as the Polar Vortex gets involved with this and there is your triple threat. Polar Vortex....northern stream and southern stream. Today is Tuesday...if this is on the menu Thursday night then alarms go off for the east coast but again...at some point this could trigger south. Will watch the runs tonight...but only the GFS and the EURO are worthwhile because the NAM only goes out 84 hours. Again, great pickup FJF.
CBG...here is what I would tell your very little friend. You have my email address right? Give it to him..I would gladly take care of him. Another thing, what is the most important thing I have said about being wrong with the weather...I DONT CARE. EDIT I DO care when Jonnyd makes different plans and stuff like that..then it bothers me..but thats it. Could care less. The reason so many here have put up with being wrong on several occasions is that I have gone out of my way to tell everyone...NO WEATHER GUY WILL EVER GET IT RIGHT...ever. Not a hundred years from now. If the models portray a storm for next Wednesday..and it happens 100 miles south of where its forecasted today, some will look at that as being wrong. I look at that as incredible. I have friends that say what a great profession. You get paid to be right only 50 percent of the time. Makes sense right? I look at this way...all weather people have bigger balls then any other profession because they took the chance to get into a profession that will constantly be wrong. Does that make sense? I was in sales. I have had people tell me to go f myself. I believed in what I was doing so guess what...I could care less. So tell your little friend who probably sells shoes and uses one of those shoe measures so he is always right to grow a set of balls and do something more risky. Hows that? lol I know you get what Im talking about bud.
Jay,,,,I will pass it along,,,,,but I already took care of him,,,,told him he can forget about reading my facebook page weather updates and go put his faith in ch2 or 11 or 1010 wins,,,,I am sticking with you,,,,and maybe I will even stick with Fjf,,,,," fjf and his house of weather and stuff " ,does not roll off the tongue but I like the ring of that,,,lol.....keep em coming Ps the guy is a lawyer,,,,,
lololololololo...a lawyer? A lawyer is putting judgement on guilty or not guilty for the weather guy? That makes it even better. Tell him Im as wrong as he is when he defends a rapist. FJF is the man..Im telling you...he is in the will. This thread will never die.
Oh..and just so we dont get lost on the rest of the week. Showers Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Snow showers Friday night and Saturday morning. Then possible light snow event next Tuesday before the main even Wednesday/Thursday.
not boys cbg, i am just throwing stuff out there to see if its right. when jay leaves it will be like jordan leaving the bulls, it would be years before this thread was relevant again. correct me if i am wrong jay, right now the track seems to take it south of us where we would be looking at 3-5" at most? philly looks to get nailed again? the reason i bring this up is the last 2 started more north and faded south. this one starting further south kinda breaks the trend and it drifts north with each new run? or just gives us less to worry about or hope for (cbg) as it continues the fading south trend? make sense?
First off, dont sell yourself short..How much you want to make a bet if we are both here next year, you will read models perfectly. The only thing you will need after that is storm recognition. Being able to see a storm on the models you have seen before. Will explain that to you over the next year bud. Secondly, kind of yes on amounts but I never get tied to middle amounts this far out. For instance, because the GFS has 3 to 5...8 days out means nothing to me. I look at potential. Thats why sometimes you will read where I say the models say 3 to 5 but thats nonsense..it cant be 3 to 5 with that pattern. Over a foot or nothing. I know that makes little sense but this week it will make sense as we get closer. Trust me..and lets talk about that this week with the models. Very important. The important thing with how the models had us in bullseye territory last storm and previous storm was because of the WEST TO EAST pattern...this will come at us from the south to north...or Southwest to Northeast...as it stands now. I said that about a storm a few storms back and it switched to a more west to east approach. That has been the approach all winter. This is more of a traditional big storm approach and is the biggest thing we need to watch for the next few days. Does the approach stay more south to north..or does it go west to east. If it goes west to east, then you start to lock in south of us again...with the same trend.
A much better way to explain that is this..and this is actually a real good one. Rarely have we received record breaking big snows with the same storms Chicago gets..or Indianapolis gets. Follow? Thats what I mean from west to east. The biggest snows in our history have been from storms that hit VA/NC/MD/DE hard. This year most of the storms that have hit us hard but not very hard have come from the west because almost all have been Northern Jet storms. Does that make sense FJF? Almost all the storms that have hit us, hit Indiana/Ohio/Kansas ETC..make sense? Northern stream.
good stuff jay, thanks. i see that a little better now. totally makes sense. thanks again jay, always fun learning something useful
Another snow storm next week, really?! It does seem like the closer we get to actual spring, the more off the models have become, so I'm hoping this tapers off too. This thread's still a hundred times more accurate than most anything else out there though.
Hmmm..thats good stuff NJF..really good. Im not sure what you meant as I started to read that but here is where it makes sense. The Polar Vortex was involved with the last storm. The GFS model had the storm in our area for a record 14 straight runs. 14. It had the same area getting hit for 14 runs in a row. Now 48 hours before the storm hits, the GFS takes the storm almost 150 miles south. Thats not a trend..thats a flight with meals. There has always been the argument of how do models transition from season to season and my argument back has always been..its a friggin model...no heart..no brain..but a model. But your point is valid..and since the Polar Vortex will rear its ugly head again with this storm, its something to keep an eye out for. Like I mentioned to FJF, this storms track is USUALLY more favorable for snow up north compared to south but this AGAIN will be unusually cold air in place next week. Very much below normal..and if the models do this again, your point might be valid...although I would be lying if I told you why it would be right. And another thing, because of the time of the year and the late trends by models, you will see a lot of this *** this week. Or me saying BUT. Lets be sure of one thing, the models are signaling a very strong storm for the middle of next week. Below normal temps are almost 100 percent. March storms are usually the most volitile because of the temp gradient north/south. Its looking, like the last storm, as if someone from VA to Maine..and possibly all, will get one last winter storm. Because of the huge model swings 48 hours before storms, its also looking like this will not be pinpoint until..ummm...48 hours before the storm.
This IS the last storm of the year..well..winter storm..and winter AFTER THIS...is over. Now dont expect temps to jump into the 80s but they will be high enough to make sure no more snow..this is it. So, some good news for our haters..which I secretly where that uniform lately. Checking this storm models now.
No real model agreement and every model has the storm. Sounds off but the truth. GFS has a huge snow storm for..the OUTER BANKS? EURO shows a storm heading towards Bermuda....CMC has us getting clobbered..as does the NAVGAP. So, right now, I would say we have the models, this far out, right where we want them for heavy snows...for someone on the east coast. Expect them to come better into line by tomorrow night. Old theory is this...you dont care where the storm is at this point..only that its A: Modeled and B: Where the models biases would have it...which signals to me an east coast storm.
Oh..and did I say..winter is over after this...mark it down. Snows are over I should say..still temps will be slightly below normal..but not enough for a snow storm. Flurries? Maybe..but no big storms in the form of snow!
