Yes it did FJF...and you are reading it perfectly. The only thing right now is the NWS is discounting the GFS with their forecast and going with the EURO...which at one time was warmer than the GFS but now colder. Heres the deal without trying to get too sidetracked. The GFS is very good long range at showing a storm...but is horrendous with details. It just gets worse and worse. With that said, unless there is a shift south, I have mentioned that all models that are putting down snow lets say south of Albany are doing so with back end snows. Snows that will kick in once the storm is past us...counter clockwise right? bringing down colder air behind the center. And as we have talked about, I would never count on back end snows. Will they happen? probably...will they dump what the models are suggesting? Some models saying 2 to 4 for me...for CBG...for Brook? 3 to 6 for you? Jonnyd? I dont know about that...thats when this becomes a nowcast deal and I wouldnt put my eggs in that basket. Now this is a very deep storm..it will produce windy conditions. It will take temps from the 50s to the 20s in a matter of 5 or 6 hours. Its a good one...but still, when they get wrapped up the way this one will, I will believe these snow totals when I see them.
Lol..SJ..every time I see you pop in here in brings back the old times bud. Hope you are doing great..and yep..effing snow.
Jon..where the f have you been. Are we talking about the Wednesday storm? Wednesday starts off as rain...windy...could be heavy at times..and perhaps ends as snow. The big question is how much at the end. I will be posting models pics now. I think you are ok jon..unless the models I go to check now change big time bud.
Boston has some flurries this morning that was nothing and it got really warm. Then as of earlier today we got mostly rain heading out way Wednesday. Although the potential for snow is there according to the weather people
First the NAM..the NAM is an American short range model that goes out only 84 hours. It success rate is horrible at 84 hours and gets better inside of 48 hours. With that said, this is the most north with the snows of all the models..so snow haters will love this map. It could be...but I will post the GFS next to compare. THE NAM:
Damn daylight savings. Models that came out at 1030 come out at 1130 now...EURO came out at 1am now it comes out at 2am. So, the GFS model is running. For anyone that cares...something interesting. When they do model runs they do them in..well the GFS does in 6 h0ur increments. So..when the models start to run..the model pulls the live data when they hit the start button. That begins to put into motion the run...by hitting the button it pulls the data live from all the players and the jet stream etc...that determines the entire run. Bored ya? Good. Waiting on the GFS now..will post totals.
Not bored at all Jay,,more like depressed that you are telling me " no snow. " or should I say very little,,,,ugh I would rather have a day off and play with the kids ,,,keep em coming
as you can see above...this is a huge...I mean a huge difference with the models. Perfect example is lets take FJF. FJF with the NAM gets nothing. With the EURO he gets 4. As you go north its even more dramatic. 30 miles north of FJF up i84, the number still reads 0 for the NAM but around 8-10 inches north. So, yes FJF..right now..you are between 0 and 4 on the models..but you can see what a 30 mile swing does. If you were to ask me what the EURO does tonight? Lets see what the GFS says now...pulling model numbers now.
So is the euro setup more south than the nam? Reading that correct ?ps shift south baby shift south,,,lol
and the GFS. GFS and the NAM are not far off..so now basically its every model against the EURO GFS: If I was a betting man...and Im not...I would have to bet the EURO goes north with the totals tonight. Just a guess. If the EURO stayed the same or went south, many question marks still out there with the storm. Not that this has not happened before...and the EURO ends up right. Its a much better model but has a lot models not buying its solution. We shall see. Will not be up for the run so will post in the morning. EDIT...FIXED
The EURO is more south then all the models CBG. Like I mentioned above, not the first time...and I wouldnt bet against the EURO. Still, its a lot to overcome. Ok..I will give it this..if the EURO goes south or stays the same against every other model tonight? I would say its probably right. Think it will bend a bit north tonight but if it doesnt....its probably right.
Yep DPF....Boston was a close call for big numbers at one point. I would say 50 miles west and 50 miles north will be a different story in a big way.
So right now we are looking at minimal snow in NWNJ (Morris County ) unless the storm moves South? I'll take that. I've had more than enough of this winter, I want to see the snow gone from my property already ( my yard is still coveted in snow with 3-4 foot piles by the driveway and by the curb) and I don't want any possibility of losing power.
Today in Weather History: the Blizzard of 1888 begins (as a heavy rain storm) on March 11, dumping 20 to 60 inches on the Northeast US.
