Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Now, back to this storm. Will not be on until very late tonight but here is the latest NAM. What bothers me with this is not for us..but people to the north..and I guess close the Lower Hudson Valley...possible icing with this storm.

NAM: Blue...snow....Orange...sleet/freezing rain...pink...freezing rain:

 

One last thing..we talk about models getting the best information.

Here is the breakdown when the models will begin to get the best info. Even todays models are only getting about 20 percent of the storm for Wednesday from signals on land.

Tonight accuracy goes up from 20 percent to about 40 percent
Mondays runs go to about 40 percent morning to around 70 percent night runs.
Then the last piece of the puzzle hits land..the west coast...Tuesday morning..which brings us to around 90 percent of what SHOULD happen.

So, right now...while it looks like the models are converging on a path..things could really change in 24 hours.

 

Im sure everyone is asleep...checking models now.

 

Now..this is what we do. Its early....but is this a trend? Or is it back end snow increase. I say a baby trend because the temps back this up.

Here is the PREVIOUS GFS:


Here is the LATEST GFS.


We do not pull things out of thin air here. Now...you can see the increase in the LATEST GFS in North Jersey..well..for everyone. You can see the snow line sink south about 50 miles or so. Now is this a trend because we received some more information tonight?

The reason Im making a big deal about this is you can see 100 miles north..check out those snow numbers kids. Now, I dont know..its one run...but what does tomorrows runs do...do they retreat back north? Or stay the same...or go farther south.

Snow haters....Im still with you on this one...but have to tell you...every storm has trended south this year...INCLUDING the one that missed us last week. So...we will see tomorrow.

 

Oh..one more thing...the above GFS is one of the colder solutions right now. So...we have to add that into the equation. If the EURO goes south tonight, this could become a problem.

 

Right now, it could be a problem Thursday morning but I wouldnt get worried about it yet. Trended back north this morning and the EURO last night. Now ALL models are signaling a changeover to snow Wednesday night..well...to frozen precip and hard for a bit..so this is something to keep an eye out for.

BROOK:! If you change no flights..you are coming back in Wednesday correct? If thats the case..leave it be bud. Should be fine.

 

That is all good Brook..all good. You are set. Might be slight delays because of wind etc. Still, you are good to go sir.

 

A bit south FJF...but Im telling you..for you guys in the lower hudson valley..what a 50 mile swing would do. Really tough call. I think for north jersey right now...right now..right now...its showing perhaps a quick snow/sleet beginning quickly to rain..and heavy rain..windy. Then, on Wednesday night the changeover to frozen.

Now, for the lower hudson valley..CBG...jonnyd...thats when it gets interesting in the track. There is no model right now showing a total snow event..so when does the transition take place. Lets just use a time here..lets say everyone ends around 4am Thursday morning..make sense?

If thats the case then the transition time is the whole ball game. If the transition happens at 9pm? Then some could get a 6 inch ending. 11pm? 3 to 4...2am? few inches. 7pm? Then you are talking about a decent thump for about 7 or 8 hours. So, come Wednesday night, you watch the live radar rain snow line and watch it dip from northwest to south east..you watch the line go from lets say Albany N.Y...down towards Windham NY. Continues down I84 as it also swings through central and eastern pa.

How fast does it swing through and how much precip is left with the storm. If the models adjusted 3o miles south with the original track and you start to see a transition around sunset, this could still be a real snow producer. If at 7pm your temps are in the lower 40s and the transition line is still 75 miles west and north of you, then you get much less.

Now, hopefully by tonight some kind of trend sets up with the models where you get an idea..rough idea. So, does the EURO go another 25 miles south? GFS, one of the colder soutions right now...does it trend a bit north towards the EURO with a bit warmer solution? These are things that can determine places like FJF or Jonnyd getting 2 or 3 inches at the end or 6 to 8. Places like me in North Jersey or CBG by the TAP Bridge getting 1 to 2 or 4 to 6. Places like Albany NY getting 3 to 5 or close to 10. Its a huge question.

Ok...and down the road for next Monday..and we are now a week away so if the models start to give up on that storm it should happen by tonight or tomorrow..but they have not budged on a huge ending to the winter. I say ending because realistically, you would think that would be the last big storm.

But I will say this, my guess of mid march temps starting to jump to spring is WAY OFF. Temps down the road next week look to be bitter cold....with no real end in site. Im sure its coming just that models say cold for the next couple weeks after this storm Wednesday...with some single digits nights still ahead. I know..I know...gotta be kidding me right? Wish I was.

 

Right now it looks like a possible quick snow/sleet start..real quick..then rain..heavy rain..windy. Then you can read above CBG. Tough call on the turnover. One thing is certain, it will turnover. 1 hour? 3? 5? 7? Not sure..but it will. That transition and when it happens is the difference between 1 to 2 inches or as much as 6 to 8 inches. There will be flash freezing that setsup for many north of i80. With all the rain and ending frozen precip..temps will begin to drop very fast..so that Thursday morning..depending on location, icy conditions could be a problem.

Now..as I stated above..amazingly...the best setup of the year is next Monday for the east coast. Hard to believe but the models show that best setup as far as storm track...cold air in place..blocking to make this a slow mover..on and on...and of course...PLENTY OF TIME FOR SUNNY SKIES. Still, this setup is the last thing Im sure many would be hoping for..except for you...you sick bastard...lol.

 

just saw this on another site..and just so you guys understand how drastic this storm is and how tough the rain snow line will be and how much is left over.

54 hours from now temps-mid 60s

60 hours from now temps-mid 50s

Somewhere between the 60 hour mark and the 66 hour mark the storm will transition for even central jersey...where this temp profile was taken from.

66 hours from now temps- upper 20s

So locations south of the cold boundary..where rain will fall pretty much all storm, temps will drop for many around 25 degrees in 6 hours or less.