Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Ok...saw this before the snow map and here is where you look at a model run..and you know right off the bat that the snow line is more north on this one. Has to be. Check out the elongated center over LAND and over PA/NJ/NYC/CONN/L.I. Thats how big the center is. Now..forget that..but it just tells you that even the poconos and lower hudson valley most of Conn ON SOUTH...is all rain: This is a rainstorm with this map..and I think the pieces of the puzzle are starting to say that.

EURO MAP:

 

Now the TEMPS...need I say more? Still have not looked at the snow map..but can imagine it being very bare south of Albany..we will see

EURO TEMPS:

 

Now the snow map..and Im wrong..and I think Im wrong because the EURO gives you 24 hour incriments..so the next pic of the model we get its well east of Maine. So why is there more snow then the temp map would say? Guaranteed its because the EURO is saying the storm passes us...COUNTER CLOCK WISE rotation and pulls down cold air behind the storm. Since this is such a powerful storm, the EURO is claiming we get back end snows.

What is back end snows. Back end snows besides the obvious are when the storm is above being directly East of you..the center of the the storm..then traveling northeast..when most storms shut down. The Euro is claiming that the storm will be so wrapped up, it will drag in cold air behind it..and more precip.

So going by the EURO..and these times are just for example but close

Wednesday noon...rain.

Wednesday night...heavy rain

Overnight..heavy rain turning to snow for several hours at least before ending.

EURO SNOW MAP:

 

One thing about back end snows...if you are counting on them to get your heavy snow? Not likely...have seen models bust too many times to count with back end snows.

Now this storm is a very strong deep storm..so wouldnt count it out.

So thats it...GFS says colder...EURO warmer...many models agree with both. Im sure by tomorrow night, this will be completely different.

My gut feeling? Cant help thinking this stays north with a rainstorm? I dont know...gut feeling reserved for tomorrow night! lol.

DVR'D Knick game..loser that I am..going to watch it now.

 

Down here in North Jersey yes...but thats just by going by the steady placement of the low position. Now once you start heading up to Lower Hudson Valley...its starts to get interesting..you too..but a bit less.

Now this could easily change..easily. Several years back, when a storm needed to trend 100 miles south or north for something to happen or not happen, it would take multiple model runs to see that change. Last year...and this year..the model run to runs have been so dramatically different that by tomorrow night, it could be a huge change.

The problem with this storm is not the time of year as much as it is the placement and strength of the cold air mass to the north that is retreating and not very strong. That could easily change.

 

OK..THIS NEXT MAP IS NOT..NOT..NOT FOR THIS STORM...its for the one I mentioned earlier today..and I would throw it out because its 10 days away..10 days away..and its March 16 and 17. Im posting it for two reasons.

1. Because its cool
2. Because this is what a normal huge snowstorm accumulations map should look like..and we have yet to have one this season. Have you noticed all the maps we have had this year go left to right with the numbers...for the most part..they numbers run west to east. Most huge snowstorms go southwest to northeast..thats they way the huge storms go...gulf to off the coast of N.J. Not this year..they have come out of central US and just pretty much ran below PA and then off the coast before they began to turn like a normal big storm and go up the coast. Now the reason this has caught my attention..and I usually do not post this far out..is because notice the way the precip goes southwest...to northeast. To me that spells true noreaster. So, I believe rain or snow, this will be the last storm we track this year..and if it looks like a rainstorm..we can pull the plug early.

Just notice how classic this looks..and a reason to watch:

 

Although many will get rain for most of the storm..this storm on Wednesday is turning into a classic phase. Now, still much time but it looks like this

1. Over 60 on Tuesday
2. Rain on Wednesday and Wednesday evening with temps going from 50s to 20s
3. Rain changing over to freezing rain...then sleet...then snow..with many places getting anywhere from 1(south) to 6(north) in our area. Now areas well north and west could get 12 to 18..some areas north Albany and up towards the ski areas could get close to 2 feet.

Now, we watch to see if there are any trends south. Checking latest models now.

 

Thanks FJF AND CBG...This has the look of a classic storm..100 miles south and this could be incredible...have to keep an eye out.

 

Going to be a bit careful how I phrase this but this storm reminds me in SETUP of the Superstorm of 93..from where the heavy snows are..to the real warmth to the south etc. Latest EURO wants to bring 7" of snow to the Lower Hudson Valley and that all happens in the last 3rd of the storm. This storm needs to be really watched. EURO trended a bit south with snow totals but because of the lapses between shots, its seems to me a lot of this is back end snow.

Now for many reasons this is not normal back end snow...its the storm passing south..and then not too far off when the back end snow kicks in...and it could be very heavy for a 4 to 7 hour time frame for many from north jersey north. Really needs to be watched.

 

Just remember I put this down..and anybody can see it...but the storm the models are putting out for next Monday/Tuesday? is sick.

Here is how I look at. I look at that model pic saying to myself could you imagine if this is how the model looked 48 hours out? Could you imagine? I do not look at like wow..this is going to happen.

So we put it down for the final track..and likely by Wednesday of this week it will not be there...but if it is? Plenty of cold air.

 

Didnt mean the soap opera part. Its just that a tad south and you have your snowstorm. You know I like to set up bursting bubbles CBG...lol..but my gut still says rain. Nothing has changed as far as the cold source for this storm. Now the week from Monday event is loaded with cold air TODAY.

I just cant see that much of a change but this year has been full of changes. The likely outcome to a prick of a winter would be this..and remember this...this storm is a basic rain storm for many...with temps the day before in the 60s. The storm comes in on the heels of that and washes away most of the snow thats still left. I have about 8 inches in my backyard still..so flooding. Anyway, the snow gets washed away...looking good right? Wrong. This stupid cold winter gives us one more surprise a week from tomorrow.

Even for me, that would be a nasty blow...very nasty blow to the head. My comments about middle of March spring will be pushed back a week...that looks not to be the case.

 

I posted last night the EURO version of the storm for NEXT MONDAY.

Here is the Canadian model for next monday. Notice the 1039 high pressure just east of Canada..thats the cold air. This would not be a nice way to end winter..lets leave it at that.

CMC MODEL FOR March 16/17


EDIT..these numbers to the right are metric..so if anyone needs a conversion chart..just ask..but thats a lot of precip.

 

and the lastest EURO FOR NEXT MONDAY:

Sorry for the blur but its was a small pic I had to expand..but you get the point on agreement:

 

Now..for the gasket blower or two..and I wish I didn't have to put this in here because I know most people that follow weather know this already..you have two choices.

1. You can look at a model a week from now and say "oh...don't worry...please don't lose sleep you miserable prick...it probably will not happen..let me rub your head and make you some warm milk"

2. You post it saying that long range models have tended to over-amp storms in the future. The models have BEEN DEAD ON THAT EVERY STORM HAS BEEN THERE...DEAD ON....but they could be north south....less amped or MORE AMPED. Now, on about 30 percent occasion this far out, they have been pretty dead on. So, we post todays model to see where the next run takes the storm and we try to figure out where she lands.