Yep...EURO again showed a huge storm...even colder solution. Now not to be negative..or positive for the haters of snow...but these models locking into a solution used to mean something. Consistency was your best friend. Not sure why but thats no longer the case. So we look to see what the models do between today and Sunday night. If there is no phase with the southern jet, this becomes a decent storm...if it does phase?....you get pics like I will put on here tonight. GFS= no phase EURO= total phase And if you put a gun to my head and asked me which one makes most sense...I would say neither..very complicated setup for the EURO to be showing that big of a storm.
hey jay, trying to look at these weather maps and make some sense of it. seems like this will be thursday right, nothing for wednesday night?
CBG..thats taking the middle of the road...very possible a mix of everything...very possible. One second FJF...I dont think so but I could be wrong..should be Wednesday night the heaviest.
Ok...the GFS completely lost the storm..so I cant give you a date..lol. Its gone..just a minor cold front. Could be?
Going to have to tell me what you are looking at FJF. From the EURO..timing wise it looks like this to me. Wednesday afternoon...most start out as rain with temps in the lower 40s. Temps will be in the lower 50s for all the day before. Once the storm gets going.within 3 hours...many change over to snow and heavy snow Wednesday night and Thursday morning tailing off by noon. Is it possible you put in the wrong date for the map? Are you counting hours from a previous map? I have done that too many times to count. Need to tell me what your pulling. Now...this is the EURO...THE CMC...NAVGAP..every model has a pretty big storm except the GFS. And while I would love to just call it game set match..when you are asking for phasing to create such a storm..its not easy. If one storm decides to slow down and grab something to eat..its over. The EURO is judging the speed of several jets and saying that we will meet in Kentucky. Sounds good on paper...but believe it or not..the last storm had a better shot of happening because it was an overrunning event....all the players were there. It just set up further south. This is a tough one. A dangerous one if it happens...and Im telling you the models will not grasp this until MONDAY NIGHT. So we will post the model runs with a cautious eye on this one.
I would post the GFS map but its well..let me post it just so you can see what happens when everyone doesnt meet at the same place: Now, no model is showing this and to explain why this model came up with this would be impossible for any expert..but sometimes a model sees something that doesnt make sense until the other models come around and see it...so we post this. Now, the chances of this verifying are 10 percent. Again, every model has a strong storm...rain snow is the argument.
Cant tell you how many times I have done that. Will be back on late tonight to see the EURO but again..this is going to be tough to get all the players at the same point to make this huge. Not saying it will not happen..but it will be tough. FJF....feel free to ask if you need anything at all.
BINGO CBG. Then if that happens, it becomes a matter of where...and where it tracks from there. I know many are calling for a huge snowstorm..but again, Sunday night we get an idea and Monday night we have our answer.
That should have everything you need. Give me a list of what you are looking for. Accum models you have...future maps? etc...tell me what you are looking for and I will give you all the links. Ok..EURO says HUGE STORM...BUT...BUT....but....its north of us. Some will say its March spreading its wings..some will say..well...not sure..but its a combo of March but more importantly the High pressure to the north is to far west..and that COULD change. So here you go...the EURO..putting down incredible snows to the north and west of most of us: Will be on later tonight to check the 1am EURO and the 1030 GFS..and now the big question is does this begin to trend south. What needs to happen? Well, for starters the high to the north in better position but just as important is a shift south of the storm by about 80 miles. Now, the reason for that is boring but it has to do with where the phasing takes place etc. THE EURO 1PM:
Just took a better look at the map..very very close for FJF and CBG...jonnyd is there...marshall up north. To the south, its very close too. So..again..do the math what an 80 to 110 mile shift to the south would do...and its big stuff. As far as this being a totally spring thing..nonsense. The day before for many getting over a foot, temps will be near 50. March is one F'ed up month.
Oh..and both the EURO and GFS have another storm that has the same setup as this one for the 17th and 18th. Im just going to sneak this one in right here so perhaps those on the bridge and thinking about jumping...dont jump.
ok, jay having trouble figuring out the amounts looking at the latest gfs run on weatheronline. but it looks like we are in store for a good amount of snow wed/thur. its in mm's and thats not the 1 metric to english conversion i know,lol let me know if you see the same thing. the maps are starting to look less like bowls of spagetti and more like information
Thats when you know you are starting to get it...when the maps look like info..even if its half of them. Its amazing when you start to learn this stuff...I mean this will, with all do respect..but you start to lose respect for the guys on T.V. You will see...now...to be a guy under the covers..deep into this stuff..government guys..its gets very deep. But to get a forecast? No...now you will start to learn the models strength and weaknesses. Always remember the storm..what went right..what went wrong. Your own climatology. Your area...blah blah..you get it. Just got home..checking models now.
GFS..yep...lots of snow..but north. Looks like the I84 B line 30 miles north of the Tappanze Bridge on north is where the snow starts to add up. Now, checking the EURO but that seems to be consistent with the earlier EURO. Lets see if the EURO did anything different. 1030pm GFS:
