Kind of...the first red line is going to be rain/sleet..just outside that line..and you will have a real tough time seeing its a blue line that if you look south, you can follow it. Its a blue dotted line that indicates the 32 degree line. Now, we all know that you can get snow above..and you can get sleet and freezing rain below 32..but its a indicator. The reason that line has little use right now is a storm of this magnitude would create its own cold air...something we can get in to as we get closer and IF the models still show this deep of a storm. Now the chances of this type of phase are less than 30 percent. We have to put that out there. That doesnt mean the chance of a big snowstorm are less than 30 percent..just the chance of a low that deep happening. Now as far as what you picked up on..you did a friggin great job. That line Im talking about is tough to find...and for me right now..insignificant. It will move all over the place the next 6 days. You picking up the snow totals and areas was great stuff FJF...great stuff.
BROOK...I didnt answer your question. You need to keep an eye out for the 13 bud...carefully. Now since you will be in full blown meetings Im guessing on the 12th..you really have no options IF..IF this happens. You would just be pushed back to the 14th. Since the worst of it would be the 12th afternoon and evening..as we get a bit closer..just tell me your options.
Now last storm NWS jumped on board early with chances of snow..and if you remember, I mentioned it was rare. We were all very wrong with that one but it does not stop them from seeing this potential. From the NWS: Tuesday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Thursday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Here was earlier todays GFS...remember how it didnt agree with NWS long term thinking? And here is the latest, hot off the presses from the GFS. You can see two things..the accum amounts are lowered a bit (means nothing at this point) and the area is further south..agreeing with what the NWS sees long term..and what I believe will happen too. What I expect to happens is this to expand in size and depending what kind of phasing happens, amounts to go higher or lower. The latest GFS:
CBG..the bastard wants my job bud...Im changing the will to put him in charge..lol. Seriously, you guys have really learned a lot this year. Great friggin job...but FJF pointing out that map? Thats some serious learning by him...good stuff.
lol...ok.....NO DAMN DISNEY...lets see what tomorrow brings. Remember..for the models to hold on to a solution this strong..it would be surprising to say the least..lets see where we are at during the 1pm Euro and before that..the 1030 am GFS.
Jay,,,,most of the winter the models have lost the storm 4 or 5 days out , but I don't think that happened with the last non storm,,,? Do you think that continues with this next event ? Will the models lose it only to come back or is there no way of guesstimating if that will happen ? Oh did I say keep em coming ?
^ I can deal with snow. I am tired of these f*cking sub 20 degrees mornings. I really am getting tired of it.
No chance this storm gets lost..what will happen over the next 3 days is they will show rainstorm/snowstorm and something in between.
Really no model change other then the fact the GFS wants to lessen the storm a bit. Now the GFS was the model that had the last storm 12 straight runs showing what it showed..and everyone crawled into bed with it. Lets see if the EURO does. Now when I say lessen..its the coldest solution but less precip..still has 8-12 from the Poconos into nnj and the lower hudson valley..but not much else.
