Yes...3/12..to 3/13. Models show a start time of Wednesday morning..and an end time of Thursday morning..Im sure that will change give or take 6 hours.
FM: Have you still on my radar. St Patricks day. The snow it mentions is more of front coming through so no big deal other than it might be bit cold: From the NWS: Saturday Night A slight chance of snow showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Light northwest wind increasing to 5 to 9 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Sunday A slight chance of snow showers before 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 20%.+ ****Will say this..when you see that its a front coming through..and they show increase in winds on Saturday night, I would think it might be a windy day on Sunday. Also, you leaving on the 15th: This storm is modeled to end on Thursday the 13th. While at one time models wanted to show a back to back event, no models are showing anything after this storm of significance but we should keep an eye out for that..but right now you are good to go.
I still cant get over the fact of you rubbing it back in my face. I would do anything for 80s and a ship. Lol..Miller Lite...very good one. Back on the 19th? Im sure just in time for temps to start screaming spring here. You have it all. See you when you get back.
jay Flying to Memphis on 3/10-Monday at 1:30 PM out of Newark Returning 3/13-Thursday at 8 PM to Newark. What do you think about the Thursday return home?
jay, that was a great post. very informative. but don't think you can teach us and phase yourself out,lol
lol..Im telling you FJF...you guys will not need me soon. You are all getting too smart for me. Hey..we talk about different possibilities and if the latest trends are correct..now wait a minute. Lets do this a bit differently. Whatever I write here tonight means what the models suggest tonight. If I say that that models are showing one of the biggest storms ever..is there anyone out there that thinks Im saying we are about to get the biggest storm ever? Hope the answer is no. Now, a week in advance..now a bit less...have the models ever shown a monster storm..and the models are correct? Hundreds of times. So, we have to discuss only whats on the table. There is a reason for all of this and I always believed that bad winters end with a bang....every time...every time. Im going to post the latest models. They show a triple phaser. A triple phaser from the past would be the Superstorm of 93...ALSO A MARCH STORM. March is a crazy month where you can quietly slip in to spring. Happens more than 90 percent of the time. Every so often, March acts like it has the potential to act. Unlike January, to the south, you have very warm temps. To the north of us, winter is still in charge. In-between, you can get a storm like this. Let me post the models...one second.
Brook...I will answer this for you in one second bud..hopefully I will guide you better than I did Jonnyd
Im throwing the kitchen sink at you guys this week. All the tools...lol. Here is something very rare from the NWS...very rare this far out. Did I say very rare? Very. Forget if you are north or south of the powder blue section..it means nothing..all thats important is that a week away, NWS put this out.
This is not the local NWS but that National NWS discussion..again..tons of information for a storm so far away: COLD AIR WILL BE AT MORE OF A PREMIUM THAN OF LATE--AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST DAYS 6 AND 7 WHEN A LARGE WAVE ORGANIZES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM TRACK THAT HAVE SUFFICIENT COLD AIR EITHER IN-PLACE OR IN-ADVECTION WOULD RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, OR SNOW.
and the long term GFS snow map. Where have we seen this before..the snow amounts are for mostly New England....today. Yet the NWS has the snow swath further south right? Trends. What can keep this storm from hitting us? Well..the storm? Not much. Can this not be a snow storm? For us? Definitely. For everyone? No way. There are several ways this storm does not give us snow. 1. Storm gets suppressed to the south. NO 2. Storm tracks too far north and gives us a heavy rainstorm and very gusty winds. `Would think this would be the most likely way of not getting this storm...and VERY possible. 3. Storm doesnt phase as shown. Very possible..but still a decent amount of snow. lol..EDIT...I NEVER PUT THE MAP OUT:
i am going to take a stab at this. this shows the center of the storm at the south border of jersey and a 6-12" storm for ny metro north to me and cbg and cman seeing more than a foot grade me jay
lol..you got it. The inner most circle off the coast of NJ has a number written next to it...980. We have discussed this..thats the pressure of the storm...very low...very strong. The circles around the center..very tightly wound up..isobars they are called. The closer the isobars ..the more wind. So now we have a very deep low pressure with high winds. Major beach erosion...heavy snow falling northwest of the center of the low. The colors indicate how much LIQUID PRECIP HAS FALLEN IN A 6 TO 8 HOUR TIME PERIOD. Thats very important when reading that. So people in the blue spots are getting about an inch of liquid precip in 8 hours. Now, if any of those people are cold enough to get snow..they are getting 10 inches of snow..10 to 1 ratio right? 10 inches of snow in a 8 hour time period. This is not the entire storm but perhaps around half. Does that make sense? If it doesnt...please ask. NOW....What are we studying???? A model printout of what the model thinks might happen...NOT WHAT WILL HAPPEN..lol. Still, this has my attention big time.
A..seriously...A...f'in great job FJF. Except one thing...you are assuming if this is all snow..and looking at that map, its borderline for me in North Jersey..mix in NYC and you are dead on for you and CMAN and CBG. That is really really good stuff FJF. No joke.
