Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

13th and 14th of March is now something to watch. A true Miller A storm that phases several jets. Euro has it...JMA has it...GFS has it a day later..14th...CMC has it. All have a very large storm system and a slow moving system. AGAIN...7 days out now.

Good news is that although the models show another one after this one..its probably not going to happen..and the reason being is that this storm....if it were to happen..will screw up the dynamics of a storm on its heels. Have seen this many times before. The 2 system theory is nice eye candy..but rarely happens. So..in a nutshell...hopefully..this is the grand finale.

For the snow haters...plenty of time for this to go wrong and if it does..it will be the souths burden..because some kind of storm system will happen.

Unlike the last storm, this is not an overrunning event with those issues. So....we keep an eye on it. This could be a very very large storm. Will post model pics tonight.

 

Good observation GG... lets see.

 

Plenty of time for a miss AS WE ALWAYS STATE CBG...lol. Plenty of time..and as we had discussed...looking forward to the final storm so I can pull myself away from this site until next November..cant wait..because reading between the lines..this site is about to bust open.

 

lol...doesnt bother me at all CBG. Just love to learn from them.

Right now the storm for next week is on every model. Now depending where tgh 850s setup..the temps just above surface is what model you are looking at. The EURO came out and has the rain snow line to our west and north..but has an ice storm for us which makes little sense for March. It brings heavy snow just to our west and big amounts up north. So..wait and see.

Again, as far as being wrong..I try to make as much about that as I do when THE MODELS are right. I could care less about bitching and moaning...or people that come on and say BUST and then leave. Really could care less. This is the last time Im even going to address that...the best thing for anyone that wants to discuss weather is to be surrounded by people that love weather or need to know the weather for their living. You are always playing with fire posting stuff like this on an open website. Looking forward to a different format next winter.

Will keep you updated on this one bud!! Hopefully this is the last one we have to track here ever . Nobody is looking forward to fishing more than me..fishing = not posting here.

 

Models tonight are still all over a major storm middle/end of next week. Every single model shows a big storm. Difference now lies in the rain/snow line which as of now gives the Poconos on north a very big snow storm. Most also leave an icing situation for everyone west of I95 and again, not buying that yet. March ice storms for our area are rare. There is a major high pressure to the north that should funnel in enough cold air to keep most people frozen..but we are also entering the time of year that areas east of I95 need things to really fall into place for a snowstorm.

I watched local weather station tonight that said long range for the middle and end of next week..sunny..with no snow on the horizon. Not sure what they are seeing with every model showing something.

Now for those not wanting snow....the saving grace could be an all out rainstorm for most of the metro area and right now its a 50/50 chance. There is no doubt there will be a storm..the big question is to our south or rain. I think to our south would be tough..if anything this has maybe too far north which would mean rain for most in NJ/NYC/L.I. on south. Way too early to go there...and its a real 50/50 on rain or snow.

 

Still modeled today but the one thing that pisses even me off is the cold. Just before this storm we have a decent couple day warmup and right after this storm models are now showing very cold temps lasting awhile. This part HAS to end.

Anyway, Wednesday morning to Thursday morning storm still on the horizon with not as much southern stream influence which brought the huge numbers down a bit with 6-12 from PA to Maine. Whether or not the southern stream gets involved or we just have a west to east northerstram storm will be a big difference. Now who gets what is a big question this far out but again...lock in a storm for that time period. Keeping the storm south...or bringing too far north so rain are still on the table..but no model is showing either option right now.

So...3-12 to 3-13 storm we are tracking.

 

Which ones FM...the model outputs? Or the accumulation maps.

 

FM..here is the accumulation snowfall maps. On the front page it gives you the next 24 or 48 hours for the NAM and GFS. Dig a bit deeper to the left go out further.

Now the EURO is a paid site. EURO will not let you copy paste so what I do is grab the totals and post them..or grab them off WEATHERBELL but WEATHERBELL has now come down hard on people grabbing EURO models and posting them since that one person went viral with the dumb storm of century for millions and nobody will leave their house for a week predictions.

oops...link: http://wintercast.tripod.com/id14.html

 

Now for certain quick numbers I grab them off of accuweather. Many people post maps there but you have to search the storm out because as I have mentioned..they have about 20 storms they are tracking over the next 4 weeks..so there is a ton of nonsense...which I have tried to explain here.

 

1pm EURO has its 3rd straight run of a huge storm. Its the biggest run of the year so far for the EURO which is usually conservative for snow amounts.

For snow lovers that does not translate into an all out snowstorm for some. Now it has a Miller B transfer set up..it heads to the Great Lakes where a large high pressure says to it..not so fast..which pulls it to a hault and transfers energy to a coastal storm. Because the transfer happens so close to the coast, it allows warmer air closer to the coast. This RIGHT NOW would mean all snow from central PA into the upper Hudson Valley and northern parts of the lower hudson valley. It would bring heavy snows into very western Conn and central and western Mass.

Again..very early and the important thing to worry about or be happy about is that its still a week out. That line will change..and this will probably boil down to where and why the transfer of the original storm takes place..does it take place off the coast of VA or DE and about 100 to 150 miles off the coast? All out snow storm. If the transfer happens off the coast of DE or NJ but just off the coast..then you have a rainstorm for much of NJ and Philly/NYC/LI/most of CONN/the very lower Hudson Valley and Eastern Mass etc.

The big amounts are back with the EURO and this one is unlike the last one where we wondered where the boundary setup...this is all about rain/snow line.

 

Ok..here is what we will be studying all week. First off, the EUROS snow amounts. AGAIN...for the temperamental..its a map showing the future and not a PREDICTION. We use these maps to see potential..we use these maps to see the rain snow line. We use these maps to understand why the big numbers are where they are..we do not use these maps this far out to say that areas that are in the range of over 2 feet of snow are GETTING 2 feet of snow.

The EURO POTENTIAL snow map:


Next...we have the EURO placement of the storm. Notice how the center of the storm, the inner purple circle, is over land...over South Jersey. In the middle of winter you can get by with that location some of the time for a full snowstorm for many north and west of it. Being the middle of march, Low Pressure placement becomes more threading the needle stuff.. So the placement is not perfect. For an all out snow storm, you need that inner circle, the center of the storm, about 100/150 miles EAST of where it is.

STORM PLACEMENT:

The last map we look at is the temps for the EURO during the storm You can see the 0 degree mark and how it is just to the West of where the map above this shows the Low Pressure center. The 0 degree line cuts up WEST of philly and then runs right along the northern Jersey border. Now it looks like most of Mass would within the 0 degree line but if this track were to be accurate, as the storm moves north..so would the 0 degree line.

Remember...COUNTER CLOCKWISE rotation of the storm. Bringing in warmer air off the ocean.

TEMP MAP:

EDIT: One last great thing you can learn from the map above. We always talk about COUNTER CLOCKWISE ROTATION OF A STORM...right? If the storm center is over South Jersey right? Notice just to the north of the storm how its sweeping in warmer colors...warmer temps above the center..from right to left? Make sense. Well now check out the south...towards NC/GA and even FL. Counter clockwise..notice the temps are colder down there then they are above the storm...colder air being brought in from behind the storm..so you can have colder temps in Florida then you have in Long Island IF this track is correct. Hope that makes sense.

 

Great question CBG. Yes...once the storm just moves from a track of up the coast to coming up the Tennessee Valley and towards either the Great Lakes..or towards lets say Buffalo, it no longer can be a Miller A. The only way you can get a snowstorm here with that track is a Miller B.

The only way a storm like that can become a Miller B is when it starts heading north and there is blocking to the north...very common. So the storm has to go somewhere....cant put it reverse and backup..so instead it throws its energy to the east to form a new storm..and the original storm just fizzles out.

Nice pick up!

and you know how much I hate Miller B storms. This winter though? Miller Bs have been successful storms..or hated storms if you do not want snow. They have done a lot damage.