This, basically. The cheapest starting Quarterback NOT on a rookie contract is currently Alex Smith at 8m this year, and he's going to get atleast 15m+(probably 17-19 judging by the love affair he has going on around the league right now) when his contract is up again. The next cheapest after that is Carson Palmer at 12m. Basically, you either have a quarterback on a rookie contract or you are paying him ~12m+ per year to be incredibly average. That is the NFL that we live with today, you pay big $$ for mediocrity, you're honestly better off drafting a new QB every 4 years unless you have something like a Josh McCown/Matt Schaub/Kyle Orton at the BARE minimum.
Leverage does matter though. I often agree with you, but I have to disagree here. Kaepernick has all the leverage in the negotiations. If he wants 18 million, he will get 18 million. If the 49ers dont pay him, another team will, especially with the cap rising every season. If Kaepernick doesnt get a contract he can holdout or play the season and hit free agency. Unfortunately for the 49ers, paying Kaepernick will put a stranglehold on the other moves they can make. They will likely come back down to earth, and the success they had will become much harder to achieve.
The same that Cutler apparently did. The biggest losers of this would be the Seahawks, this basically guarantees Wilson will have to get 18+ million.
The problem with Kaepernick getting 18M a year is that he hasn't really proved anything yet. He's a good young QB but he's not great and his team hasn't won the Super Bowl with him at the helm. That's openers in the "I'm worth enough to screw the cap" debate. The Ravens paid Flacco because they won a Super Bowl with him playing well in the playoffs. They probably circumvented their chances to get back to a Super Bowl any time soon by doing that but at least they had the proof that he was capable of getting it done. The 49ers got to an NFC Championship game 3 years ago with Alex Smith at QB. 2 years ago it was Kaepernick to the Super Bowl but not winning. Last year it Was Kaepernick to the NFC championship game again. Seriously, their best chance to win a Super Bowl in the next few years is to go find a good veteran QB to pay $7M a year too and keep the great defense together instead of letting pieces of it fritter away each year. They need to be on the 2000 Ravens and 2002 Bucs plan not the 2013 Ravens. They haven't won a Super Bowl yet. If they seriously overpay Kaepernick they're going to reduce their chances not enhance them.
I was actually suggesting in another topic that the 49ers should attempt to trade up and draft a QB? Bribe a team like the Browns, send em your 1st round pick and Colin Kaepernick for the 4th pick in the draft. 49ers can then go ahead and draft Manziel or Bridgewater or whoever.
Paying a QB 20 million means they will have the ability to mask the flaws on the team. I don't see Kaepernick masking any flaws on the 49ers. And the thing that people forget is this: If Hyde catches that pass, Kaepernick isnt getting 18 million, I know its "what if's" but this guy has come up small in big situations, as we saw in Seattle. I don't know, I wouldnt tie my arms to his.
Kaepernick is over rated. Put him on a mediocre team and he struggles. That team is tooled at almost every position. If he moves, put your money on the short sale.
Here's added info which is similar to what happened with Flacco "Earlier reports had Kaepernick seeking anywhere from $17-$19M in average annual salary. La Canfora says Kaep "believes he is a top-five quarterback" and will be perfectly happy to "bet on himself" by playing out the final year of his rookie deal for $973,766. It's the right move. Kaepernick is just 26 years old, is 21-9 as a starter (including playoffs) and franchise quarterbacks get what they want these days. The Niners will pony up. Mar 5 - 11:58 AM" Via http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6530/colin-kaepernick All it takes for one team to give him a large contract and the QB market will remain high. The 49ers are in a similar spot to the Ravens in the idea that if the 49ers win a SB next year, they have to pay Colin whatever he wants. Baltimore is such an interesting case because it would be interesting to see what Flacco's price would have been in the market if he didn't have 4 great January/February games. I think those 4 straight games for 11 passing TDs is the highest 4 game total he has in his career. But Baltimore won and was locked into giving Flacco the large contract. Hopefully the 49ers don't win so we can see where Colin Kaep will end up in them market
Bomani touched upon the discussion we have had about the QB market. Bomani Jones @bomani_jones 24m eh. one day, i need to look up how many teams have won super bowls after breaking the bank for qb’s. the qb market needs a correction. Bomani Jones @bomani_jones 23m yeah, qb’s are important. but after a point, the return on qb money just isn’t there. maybe an expanding cap is the correction? i dunno. Bomani Jones @bomani_jones 20m is there? RT @TrentonJocz: And there's a big difference between paying Brees and Flacco. Flacco's was always an obviously crippling deal. Bomani Jones @bomani_jones 20m i mean, there’s is A difference between signing brees vs. flacco. but, uhhh…you see the saints clearing guys out? right. Bomani Jones @bomani_jones 19m there’s also narrative stuff out in this. we have stupidly made qb win percentage a stat of consequence. only THAT GUY matters. Bomani Jones @bomani_jones 18m this, of course, in spite of the fact we don’t even use win-loss much in BASEBALL. it makes a nifty story for lazy thinkers. Bomani Jones @bomani_jones 18m and, as a result, you get someone breaking the bank for joe friggin flacco. thing is, since qb’s are hard to replace, leverage is skewed. Bomani Jones @bomani_jones 16m i find all things eli to be inexplicable RT @WellsIAm: Giants won the Super Bowl after signing Manning to 6-year deal at nearly $100 mil. Bomani Jones @bomani_jones 16m except…he is. it’s a weird market, man. RT @ParlayATS: i really dont think joe flacco is that tough to replace though. Bomani Jones @bomani_jones 14m anyway, grab an econ textbook and check out income/substitution effects. someone could write a GREAT paper on those related to the nfl. Bomani Jones @bomani_jones 13m i know this, though: teams let players of flacco’s caliber walk all the time. but you can’t just do that with a qb. again: weird market.
^Good shit. Lol I like to think me and you were ahead of the game on this concept. Kinda neat to hear analysts/talking heads starting to pick up on it now
^ Haha yeah we were thinking about this for a while now. Like us, nobody really wants to look it up all the contracts and stuff.
