ok u cherck models,,,,I fell asleep out cold,,,,wife says you gotta go pick up the big guy ( he was at an affair ) it ended at midnight,,,now I bees wide awake and await the news from the tgg weather guy,,,,,how was looking at schools ?
not good at all CBG..and its time to try to explain this...but its so easy even you and I can get this after midnight..first off..the GFS latest model run...will wait to see tonites Euro just in case..but here you go: Now..what went wrong. Ok...we have talked about the boundary. North of boundary snow..on the boundary sleet/freezing rain..south rain right? Ok...what has happened here is the Boundary came in too strong..to south. The models..well the GFS was thought to be having a Michael Jordan moment for once because it broke a record for any model I have ever seen in the decades I have been following this. It had the SAME run for almost a week..a week..about 14 on hour runs where it never moved more than 30 miles or so. Now every other model had well..everything. The EURO first had a rainstorm for NYC...rainstorm..thats how bad it was. The...a few days before the storm..I think Thursday...IT CAME OUT WITH THE EXACT THING THE GFS HAD. What does that tell you? Model agreement right? I mean...one models shows more consistency then I have ever seen and then 72 hours before the storm the best model in the world copies it. Dead on. So thats when Accuweather and every other weather source put out maps saying a foot..with a swath from central PA/north jersey/lower hudson valley/nyc/L.I. with 12-18. Lock it in right? Remember STAFFJET and I had a discussion and Staff,rightfully so, was disgusted with several things but the models was one of the topics? I told him back then..and I will say it till the day they put me 6 feet under...there will never...EVER...be a model..or a weather person who will understand every storm. It will never happen. They will cure baldness...they will cure cancer...everything out there will one day have a remedy but Mother Nature will never be solved. Aint going to happen. So the front..the cold front comes in faster...pushing the storm to the south..but also does not phase the two systems making a more south storm..and a weaker storm. Now can that change in 24 hours? I can give you about 20 storms that have changed in the last 24 hours. Would I bet the house? No way Jose. The only guarantee after everything that has happened is this...that model above will not be accurate. Too much has gone wrong with this storm for any verdict to be right. Now...winter is over? Or do we still follow the models...because they have about 3 more storms coming through...starting with next Friday which is modeled as a dozy...and after this one not coming out correctly...do not think anyone will buy that...but I will tell you this...we will unfortunately get one more big storm before spring. Too much on the horizon for one not to land. Will be up for awhile checking the EURO and making sure I didnt miss anything.
crappy pic of the model..let me pull that again. EDIT: Cant pull it better..but you get he point...Pinks are between 8-11
good summary Jay,,,,sux to be us / me / a snow lover,,,,,,,,,,but as I posted earlier today I will gigle my ass off if this thing somehow hits us hard as every weatherman,,,,has different numbers tonight,,they are all over the place
Are they? They shouldnt be..its so easy. Just tell the truth! What was once'd modeled to be near a foot has gone down because the cold front will suppress the storm...so lets go with 3 to 6 for now but buyer beware..we have seen this all winter...24 hours before the storm it comes north so check back with us....END OF STORY. Easy no? Checking the EURO NOW.
Got that right CBG...watched Goodfellas edited a few weeks back. Felt like I was watching a Laurel and Hardy rerun.
back on topic,,,Jay I like when u study for a while,,no quick reply,,could mean you see something on the Euro,,,,or it could mean the model did not even start running yet lol
and Euro came in a bit north..but not nearly enough. It looks like 2 to 3 up by you CBG and FJF..and 3 to 5 north Jersey/NYC/L.I. Have to go to Trenton straight line Asbury Park to get 7 or 8. I dont know...getting late...are we sitting here tomorrow looking at bigger numbers...only the gut says oh yes...with no scientific backing whatsoever. So....lets checking back in the morning...by 1o3o am we will have 2 NAM runs and 2 GFS runs so will be back at 1035 AM.
on this reply...on the bottom line...left to right..it says CBG, then how long ago you posted..then it says EDIT...REPORT...THEN ALL THE WAY OVER TO THE RIGHT..SAME LINE..IT SAYS THE NUMBER POST..AND THE REPLY...HIT THE REPLY BUTTON AND THEN TAP THE MOUSE UNDER WHAT IT COPIED.
