Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Actually a very important run coming out now...GFS is coming out now at 1030 it starts...gets to around the Monday time frame in about 10 minutes so will post them.

Im looking to see if a trend south is in the making..if this arctic front is so strong it pushes the heavy snow farther south. So...will post maps and what I see...its a pretty important run FJF.

 

Here is a learning tool...just check out the purple circles over the midwest and to the left of the great lakes flying in..that is the arctic front..I mean..thats as huge as they get.

 

Run isnt over yet...but its looking even stronger..with no south trend. Im guessing..and its a guess...but I think this run might show some 18-24 totals from PA/North Jersey/Lower Hudson Valley/dare I say it? NYC?

 

And here you go? I mean...not sure what to say. The GFS, besides showing a bit more and more each run, has had the same areas getting hammered. I mean...these are huge totals..huge:

 

Now those deep oranges keep floating around 20 miles here..and 20 miles there...those numbers..you cant pinpoint those numbers. Those numbers probably indicate where the heaviest bands setup OR that the whole area gets those numbers..and yes..those numbers are over 20 inches.

Sometimes you will see someones forecast and it says 6-12 with ISOLATED amounts 12+..well..those oranges are where the models are reading the isolated areas. Impossible this far out to nail that..so lets just forget that for now.

Lets just concentrate on the yellows..and see how many people are getting over a foot of snow. I still think that the numbers way up north are too high...I really believe that the arctic front will push those north numbers down A BIT.

With that said, temps during the storm settle in to the upper teens and lower 20s...with some suggestions lower to mid teens..and if that is the case...because of incredible snow ratios and cold air...you will have many people getting 16-22...at least.

 

And one final thing, other than the arctic front pushing this further south..not out of the realm of possibilities..but other than that, we always talk about busts...how does this storm bust. I usually give you some examples where it can bust.

Having a problem coming up with anything right now.

 

Oh..and JON..fly out of Hartford...just do it bud..just do it. As early as you can. Just do it.
OR...OR...How early can you get out of Westchester. Right now, heavy snow moves into the Westchester area around 7 to 8am..and Hartford around 10 or 11 am.

 

and the EURO came out..and basically mimics the GFS..so now we have TOTAL agreement 3 days before the storm..and the real big ones, thats how it should be.

EVERYONE is all snow..everyone. 12 to 16 for everyone..some higher totals in isolated areas and some times..well..many times, I go by past storms when models agree this far out. What usually happens is that the number begin to creep up.

Safe to say now Northern MD/all of PA/all of NJ/NYC/L.I./all of CONN/Lower Hudson Valley/not sure if its all of MASS...cant wait up for the final totals, anyway, safe to say that if the models bust low we have a 10 to 15 event. If the models are dead on we have a 12 to 18 event. If they creep up as I suspect they might, we have a 14 to 20 event with isolated 20 to 25 areas.

If the total agreement by models is correct..we have a shutdown for most schools for Monday and Tuesday. We have a shutdown for most businesses for Monday and Tuesday because the storm does not end until very late Monday night/early Tuesday morning and not enough time to have this thing all cleaned up..not even close.

If this busts..if somehow it ends up being a 5 to lets say 8 or 9 event, this would the first time following this stuff with so much agreement.

The only bust I can see is for some reason...a reason I cant find right now...the storm itself generates less precip..and we end up with a 8 to 12 event. Have tried all night looking at different scenarios and I cant find one.

When you have the GFS with 9 straight runs showing nothing but the same areas getting clobbered more and more each run..and then the EURO which was showing a rain storm just 2 or 3 days ago for NYC..now it total agreement with the GFS, we enter the 90 percent chance of this happening with the other 10 percent passed on to mother nature doing some weird stuff.

Timing? Still tough call. Sunday is periods of light snow...Sunday night...more steady with heavy snow breaking out southwest to northeast in the A.M. Monday..by noon Monday heavy snow for about 8 to 12 straight hours slowing down late Monday night and ending Tuesday morning. The only thing I would put in pencil and not pen is the ending time...because this could last several hours more.

Sorry guys and girls...while getting the days off is great, this will be a bitch for many.

 

I would alaways go with north jon...hartford at 8..but this isnt to say that you might get away with westchester at 6. You could. These are answers that would be given the night before..and I know thats too late.

There is still a chance that the heavier snow gets pushed south...still a chance. So always go north bud..but thats not much a difference in time. Tough call.

 

Jon..lookinng at the latest GFS..i THINK you might be good to go. The earliest flights are the best..either way. Looks like the heavy stuff is late AM maybe now..so early flights bud. 6am in Westchester should be good to go..as is Hartford at 8. I really think you are ok.

 

hope so jon...now if this a bit later trend continues, it could creat quite the mess for Monday with schools and businesses. Well..not schools..but if the heavy stuff comes in at lets say 10am? We have seen this before with a rush to get out...and when to leave work and stuff. Its a problem..but a good one for you Jon!

Ok..not much of a change..if anything..it has gone further south...so areas in Conn...and Mass MAY get lucky with the bigger numbers. Big numbers now still sit in very north MD/all of PA./all NJ/NYC/L.I...even the lower hudson valley is now on the border of 12 + or 6-8. Now the models will swing a bit so cant lock that in yet. This has thrown things for those areas a bit of a curveball.

Euro comes out at 1pm..so lets see if it moves back north...stays the same..or south. If it moves south, will have to adjust numbers.

 

You should be good to go on both counts NJ10. It will be snowing most likely during the Devil game but every model has the snow on Sunday as light..no model has it putting down more than 2 to 3" all day Sunday. As far as Tuesday night goes, I would think all the highways should be in good shape by then. Now the side roads? Tough call because not sure about anyone else but its still narrow on the side streets by me..not sure IF this dumps 12 inches where they put this stuff now. Still, you should be good to go on both ends

 

Ok...so we are on the same page here..I for one wouldnt be destroyed if this storm is less then it showed yesterday. So, I will try not to piss so lovers or haters off.

Here is what MIGHT be happening..and its good news for snow haters..well..north of lets say Newark, NJ. We talked about one saving grace..and I doubted this for several reasons, concerning the front and how far south it would go right? More south....less snow north.

The GFS came in south..and so did the EURO now. What does this mean?

Central NJ/PHILLY get the heaviest snows...over a foot. NYC/L.I. North Jersey...8-12..and it might be more towards the 8 mark. Lower Hudson Valley...4-8.

NOW...do you jump on two model runs? Not yet..still think north jersey could be 12 to 16....NYC too. If I changed it every model run we would go crazy. Just a heads up that this could be less snow for up north...and A TON of snow down south. PHILLY is going to get clobbered.

Amaziing how its all about the front..and the front sunk 40 miles south.

OH..JON...if this trend is correct..its great news for you...stay the course and make no changes right now..but of course still earlier the better.

 

Oh...CMAN..this works out better for you too bud. Foot easy.

Again, just posting what I am seeing and not totally buying it yet.