Just did a quick blend of the models..and this has worked in the past. South Jersey...only because of mixing issues...6-10 CMAN south central PA 8-14 Central Jersey: 10-16 North Jersey: 12-18 NYC: without mixing issues 10-14 With 6-10..same for L.I. Conn: North: 7-11 central and south: 8-14 Mass: North: 4-8 central and south: 6-10 Lower Hudson Valley and Poconos: 14-20 Now any major shift north and south and throw those numbers out.
Westchester should get more snow than Hartford right now...but thats not whats going to save you I think Jon...what MIGHT save you is the time the heaviest precip gets in. And between hartford and westchester, with the way this is coming in southwest to northeast...several hours difference. So heavy snow starts in Westchester lets say at 830 am? Starts in Hartford around 10am. Again...those arent even guesses but you get the point. Of course amounts too cutoff sharply as you head north..and if those amounts slip further south...Hartford again wins. There is NO way Westchester fairs better than Hartford is my point....lets see where we are tonight..we can start doing a better job with timing.
cool ill check later. im actually descending into sunny Scottsdale Arizona as we speak.....of course is gonna rain here saturday
Just picked up 200lbs of salt for the upcoming storm. That's 4-50lb bags in case anyone was wondering. My local Home Depot got a truckload in and folks are starting to swarm. I saw two guys buy an entire pallet of salt. Must have been over 1000lbs. I figure they're gonna flip them and make a ton of cash. Home Depot started bringing out salt one pallet at a time to keep people from hoarding. If any of you need salt, you'd better get your asses in gear cause stores are gonna run out PDQ if they haven't already.
good heads up cman...got lucky a few days ago so Im sitting pretty right now. And NWS has even upped their amounts to at least 8 inches of snow..and they are VERY conservative: HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 408 PM EST THU FEB 27 2014 CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-282115- NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX- EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND- NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 408 PM EST THU FEB 27 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE IN IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
lol...probably both CBG..will be on and off all night tonight bud. The latest GFS went a bit south too..and this is an interesting trend to watch...very. Heavy snows are now in Central NJ. Dont get me wrong...areas north still get big snows..but not over a foot. Central Jersey now the axis for 12 to 18. Again..back and forth.
Im wrong..never talk before you see the final results..never. The GFS dropped a bomb for all. Its not less up north. See...sometimes you think you can tell by looking at positioning..and again..positioning other than the front means nothing with this storm...NOTHING. Will post model in a few minutes..holy crap...tons of snow.
I mean..not sure what to say...but get ready for your local news guys to jump all over this...this is the biggest storm of the year with how many states it hits...just check out Indiana, Ohio, PA, MD,NJ,NY,CT,MASS....Im leaving states out..but all showing over a foot of snow..some well over a foot:
Ok..not much will change in the next 4 hours..will be back on at around 9 unless something hits me. Feel free to leave any questions you may have and I will gladly answer them. And when watching you local guys tonight..if they say the models have changed big time!! This storm will hit us!! You guys now know better....B.S.
Pretty amazing GG..especially now that we are in March when this storm takes place that NYC really is a bulls-eye for this storm. Again, Im having a tough time grasping that because the models really were showing potential mixing issues..but not lately...I mean...the entire L.I. area is showing heavy snow throughout.
One thing I was thinking about before and we have not mentioned is what kind of snow? Heavy wet snow you would think? Nope...in fact, this could add to the totals with higher snow ratios and temps in the low to mid 20s...maybe lower..gives us 12 to 14 to 1 ratios. A normal 10 inch storm could be a 14 inch snow storm. But..at least good news for snowblowers and shovelers.
One helluva Winter huh... Look at it this way, we've been lucky over the last 3 years or so and now Mother Nature is cashing in the IOU's. When this winter is over, we'll all kick back at our BBQ's and talk about what we did during "The Winter of '14". This one just might become Legend...
Did I put down Friday CBG? That is my bad if I did. Its in-between Hawaii and California right now and hits land on Saturday morning. Now the amazing thing about this storm and thats what makes this such a special storm from west to east is that parts of California will pick up between the storm that just hit them..and our storm that hits them Saturday..more rain in these 2 then they have received in the past 2 years. The drought they have had is incredible. They will get some relief with over 5 inches of rain with the first storm..and 6 inches of rain from this storm. Unlike other storms...and I have read where people are wondering why the NWS already has 80 percent chance of Snow for us on Monday...the reason they are so high is the kind of event/storm this is. How can I describe it better. Had to really think about this..lol. Ok. Its an overrunning event. The low pressure rides along the southern USA and gets to Texas or just north of. Remember we talked about COUNTER CLOCK WISE ROTATION RIGHT? That is the circulation with the low pressure. So the storm gets to around Texas and just takes the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico..in front of the low..and just picks it up and throws it towards the Northeast and it hits everything in between. Not much room for error. The difference between trying to paint a duck..and instead taking the paint and just throwing it at the canvass. Lol..yeah..thats it. Will the storm go here..will it go there...these are usually the problems in seeing who gets what. Not with this storm. Its pretty much a nobrainer. So, the ONLY question to be answered is where does the cold front from Canada set up. To the north..snow storm...if you are right where it sets up...ice storm...to the south...rain. If you are too far north where it sets up...much less snow....too far south..much less rain. Thats it. Now, there are questions as far as how much precip will this dump...but we are talking about 8-12 or 12-18 or some getting 20. Unlike most storms...we are not far away from being kind of close where those numbers set up. So...now we concentrate on timing...starts Sunday but light...maybe snows all day and evening but perhaps only a few inches...when does it take off? Will try to answer that tonight. Im sure that above description doesnt make too much sense lol...but once the radar starts to fill in while we track it...it will.
Jay,,,u did not say it,,I think I made that up,,,,,lol,,,,,,,will the models tell any different story before Saturday ? ps Your explanation was easy to understand.
Lol..thanks CBG but I looked back because when I read what you said..it rang a bell..and I was wrong..I did say Friday...but thanks anyway!! Have to tell the truth. System hits the mainland on Saturday morning..not Friday. The two things..well three things we are looking for are these..and its not deep stuff which again is rare: 1. Where does the frontal boundary set up. If you are: Too far north of the boundary...all snow...less snow. Between 10 and 70 or so miles north of the boundary...all snow..and big snowstorm At the boundary....ice storm South of the boundary...rain storm Too far south of the boundary...light rain event. I cant explain how important all of that is above...especially if you are at the boundary..north of it..or too far north of it. 2. Timing 3. Duration and precip amounts. Without boring you guys...does the system do what some models have hinted on and phase near the coast which would slow down our system..and make areas getting 12 inches get 18 or so. Overrunning events..warm air lifting up and over an Arctic air mass can dump huge amounts of snow. So we keep an eye on the models to see if they hint at higher...or slightly lower amounts. The amounts, in my opinion, will not go down that much at all. I just see them going a bit higher. This is one juiced up system.
