Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Do it..how can it hurt? West Chester is north of us..later start time..maybe it works. It CANT hurt. It ups the chances.

 

Here is a kinky idea jon...go north. What airports are north of you. Move the flight up and go north. I know it sounds crazy..but if this comes in 2s, north might not get into the big action until late morning..just trying to throw out other moves bud.

Heres the deal..moving your time up..moving north...would never hurt you. Delays..cancels...you are higher up in line..IF that happens.

 

Looking into the future, 3 more storms to deal with...nobody blow a gasket yet...but models are all suggesting spring arrives around the 15th of March in a big way..but we are not nearly done yet. Several POTENTIAL huge hits still showing and all of the winter variety.

Euro running now...if the EURO budges south, then we can lock in a very significant storm for PA/NJ/NYC/LI/Lower Hudson Valley, Conn. RI. Central and southern Mass.

If it doesnt, then we are just wondering about NYC/L.I. Northeast N.J. on south. All other areas will still get a major snowstorm.

 

Run isnt even over and need to see no more..when we are wondering if NYC and LI and parts of North Jersey will get snow....the GFS has been saying yes and the EURO saying no.... . At 102 hours out, the EURO now has a full blown snow storm for D.C.?

I think we have our answer folks. Details still to iron out...but it looks as if we can lock in a snow storm for most if not all for Sunday night/Monday/Monday night. Have not seen the totals for the EURO but even if the GFS is aiming too high, we are looking at a safe bet 12" minimum for many.

Now, things like rain snow line and Jersey coast and L.I. and even NYC are hard to lock in this far out because of locations...but its becoming more likely that areas west of I95 and north of lets say Trenton will be getting a major snow storm. Areas south of that..and east of I95 are also showing snow storm..but lets say a 30 mile swing for those areas would be a huge difference.

Will try to work out timings over the next couple hours with the whole Sunday/Sunday night thing..but safe to say Monday looks like a shutdown day. Can it change...yes...will it change? When you start getting model agreement like this? Its no longer a 50/50 thing anymore.

 

One thing I jumped the gun on..and this could be good news north of Lower Hudson Valley and Central Conn for those not wanting snow...even Mass totals went down..very sharp cutoff for areas north..very sharp. So lets say Hartford Conn. gets much lower amounts than NYC.

Just putting that out there as a possible southern trend..and maybe some help for JON. Its something to hang your hat on if you are not looking for big snows..does the cold front sink further south...making it harder for the precip to make it too far north? Its a longshot..but a shot.

 

Ha..brilliant move. Brilliant.

Not much else to say. We went from the GFS showing a major snowstorm and the EURO saying no south of ny/nj border straight across...to the GFS still saying major snowstorm for all to the EURO saying wait a minute...major snowstorm for areas SOUTH of what the GFS is saying. Thats not a trend..thats a meals being served flight kind of adjustment. So what gives?

The amazing thing is that its not very complicated of a setup to see why one says this and the other says that. Its all about the front..and where the front dips to. Thats really it. You dont even have to look at maps as to where the storm is..you just have to look at temps. The previous EURO had temps in the 40s for NYC and L.I. It now has temps in the 20's..so ofcourse snow right? Well..yeah...but this isnt really about where the center of the storm is..its ALL about where the cold front dips down to..and then sits. Period. Easy stuff. Before the Euro had it sitting along North Jersey and the GFS had it around MD..now the EURO has it south of MD and the GFS still has it around MD.

Thats pretty much it. 30 or so miles north of that..you get a snow storm. Right around it..you might get an ice storm..to the south..rain.

 

Yes Jon..and if thats wrong..it can only help for many reasons. Yes though...if you can get out of Hartford earlier.that would be the best. Lots of pressure on that one here bud...lol...sorry..but logically if Westchester is getting heavy snow..the chances are less than Hartford getting snow where there is really no chance that Hartford could be getting heavy snow..and Westchester is not...hope that makes sense bud.

 

Jon..could you wait till tonight to make that change? Is it possible? If not..do it...but tonight I will have a much better grip on timing. Bottom line is there is no way to get burnt by doing it..no way.

 

Ok...lets see the timing tonight. Will break it down.

FM: Sunday slowly..then heavier towards morning..but that still is not a sure thing timing wise..lets see tonight.

As far as school goes, I would be surprised with school openings from todays models...very. Right now the answer is no...even for NYC.

 

And now you can see how far the Euro went south...and I think this is too far south..the big numbers should be moved up about 30 to 50 miles? Lets see the trends tonight:

EURO:

 

And even Accuweather is jumping on board:

 

Now to me...the EURO map is too far south with the big numbers..and the accuweather map is too far north..so somewhere in the middle.

 

That would be very very good news for you jon...it keeps the heavier snow south of lets say central Conn...and the reason why I want you flying out of Hartford bud. Like I said..you cant lose flying out of Hartford.

 

Amazing year for Philly...they are back in the over 15" snow band. Amazing year.