Ch 11 said wintery mix Monday,,,,,watched ch2 spoke short term no mention of Monday,,,,,,,what's the latest Jay ? I will be checking the updates after lunchtime . Ps I have mentioned your" headsup " to friends and a couple think it is poppy cock because the local guys have said zilch,,,,,,,,,enjoy the day all Oh and for the record the other half of my friends are pretty nervous as they are NOW believers in the " great and powerful Jay "
I have the same thing happening, although after the last storm there are many more believers than before, I feel like one of the apostles, trying to convince the doubters, only in this case I have science on my side....
Well that's a better forecast I guess but I'm just sick of snow at this point. Unfortunately Miami is going to be starting to submerge at just the point I want to move down there.
Unless there is a line along the front that has a ice situation, this storm is not going to cause anyone to lose any power or anything like that. There will be little wind..its just not a tight wound up storm..but make no mistake..its precip loaded. As far as the doubters..there is only ONE out with this storm..ONE. RAIN. Is it possible that the front stalls further north and people in the metro area get a ton of mix. Now regardless, this will be a huge snowstorm for some..but does that line travel just 50 miles north so millions in the metro area are out of the "zone". And another thing for the doubters..no longer believe me..this from the NWS today: CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-280915- NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX- EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND- NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 410 AM EST THU FEB 27 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE TRI- STATE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE A WINTRY MIX AT TIMES AS WELL DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND...NEW YORK CITY...AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. Now why the local media is not throwing the CHANCE at least of this happening is..well...who knows...but this is not from me any longer..this is from the NWS.
Unless this zone travels north...expect winter storm watches to be issued on Friday/ Friday night..and Warnings on Saturday. Now todays GFS that comes out in 20 minutes is huge not because its the end all..but becasue last night the model swung a few miles north with that line..now does it trend further north? The difference of it going just 20 or 40 miles north takes the major cities out of the heavy snow zones and into a rain..to snow..to mix..to rain and back to snow event..and of course brings totals down. Just to the west and north of where that line sets up? 12-18" of snow.
Yeah...no heavy winds..now there is a threat of icing where that line sets up..but right now that seems to be central jersey through south of phili. Miami....man....if it stays afloat, I have to get out of here.
model run is halfway through and to the naked eye its showing snow for almost all..now its not over yet. One thing may have been cleared up is the models depicting this 3 day event. Seems more consolidated..ending Tuesday morning very early.
I mean..not sure what to say here. GFS continues to not budge..if anything says more snow for more people. Says NYC..and all of LI. get over a foot of snow. Now, in the past when a model is so dead on and doesnt budge compared to models that is all over the place BUT HAVE A BETTER TRACK RECORD..you go with the model that will not budge. Im talking about the top 3 models. The GFS does not give in a bit..while the EURO didnt give in..but was slightly colder..so is the EURO going to give in? Just so you guys understand what a big deal this is.. GFS over a foot of snow for everyone from central jersey on north...NYC...L.I. EURO ..near a foot for everyone north of south hudson valley..with NYC and L.I. getting a slop fest of everything..and not even a few inches. Sometimes you blend the models and take the middle road and that works a lot..but not all the time..and if you did that north of I80 over a foot. North of Trenton to I80 3-6 with major mixing. Same for NYC. Just that I wouldnt do that yet. Todays EURO run at 1pm is now huge..something or some model has to budge. If the EURO ticks south, then its safe to say many are getting a significant snow storm.
ok Jay, im on a plane going ot Arizona now. Soumds like my landing on Sunday is still pretty good right? You say Monday the real shit starts. What time MOnday though?
If you take the GFS verbatim, this storm will dump a solid line of over a foot from just miles north of the Texas Panhandle...all the way to Southern Mass. Incredible.
Early Jon...too early. Hating this setup bud for you...hating it. Now Sunday SHOULD be ok..because the heavier stuff comes in later in the evening..but thats playing with hours bud so you need to keep an eye out for that tonight. Monday? Jon...I just do not have any good news for you bud. Only the 1pm EURO run could help you out by staying the course north..and I would be surprised if it doesnt leak south. For those following this storm...boring for you guys Im sure...but if the EURO ends up being right? The GFS model may be burnt to the ground alive by American computer model designers....thats how bad that would be...and good for people not wanting snow. How can a model show the same thing for 6 straight days? We will know in a few hours.
Right now JS? No. Again, all the players from this storm enter the USA and will be better modeled by tomorrow..our system is East of Hawaii right now so its early..but not looking like it right now...Conn. continues to be in heavy snow with both models.
Now wait a minute..in all fairness...my foodtown is about a half of a mile from my house..if I wanted to get there..I will get there..lol. Honestly, Monday looks like a shutdown day for many..IF THE MODELS HOLD THE TRENDS. Big if.
It could jon..it could. Here is the way I would look at it..the earlier the better.it might not work..but it might. 630 will beat 1030...1030 beats 1pm...etc. None of them are guaranteed..but go for it. Lets say this comes in 2's...you could get away with it. Where are you flying out of?
