Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

FJF...Im with you. I cant even imagine another one..as you can see from my posts. Spent...too much bud...but we have to put it out there..lol.

 

CMAN...You can see how close you are to just getting 3 or 4 inches in south central PA and how right now you are in the over 16 area. Some cutoff..and there lies the hope that I was talking about with a swing 100 miles north or so. This could turn out to be a huge rain event....just that time is running out on that swing north.

 

One more thing..check out where this starts..and where it ends..from one coast to the other..by far the biggest OVERALL storm in years..if it happens.

 

Good question Jon. Its when a front stalls to the south of you..and moisture from the south from a disturbance goes up and over the front. Lift provided from the warm air overrunning the cold air..warm air rises to the top and cold air sinks to the bottom and precipitation breaks out...and long story short overrunning events can dump a lot of snow. They are not necessarily associated with a storm center.

 

Depending on the area that would be roughly accurate CBG. I would be surprised if that mark is not hit...very. The pattern does not quit for another 10 days..and possibly 2 more storms after this. I really hate to say that..but thats whats being depicted on the models. This storm...perhaps another on at the end of the week..and another one around the 12th.

Now lets get some good news here...I think thats it. Models are suggesting that spring wants to pretend none of this happened and come in full force around the 3rd week of March..full force.

 

Bingo..now thats a trip looking at those maps you would be nuts sir! Good move bud.

 

Ha...GQ...the first time you looked out the window you probably thought about coming here and saying Sunday storm...Sunday storm!! What about now!! What a crazy day today...heavy snow and the blue skies and sun followed by heavy snow and blue skies.

 

CMAN...always prepared buddy...gotta love it. Got to love it.

CBG..wimps..afraid to go out on a limb this far out..and if tomorrow the models lose the storm...they breathe a sigh of relief so they can just say partly sunny...lots easier bud! Checking the 1030 GFS model now...brb.

 

Thats the million dollar question FM. If you go by the model posted below, it has L.I. in the big numbers...here is the latest GFS run..hot off the presses a few minutes ago:



Now, lets first answer your question FM. Here you see just to the south of NYC a drop off. Now I have to say, for L.I. this is a very very unusual setup and Im not sure Im buying it...YET. Because the way this will come in, not to have some warming aloft in the L.I. area makes me hesitant to buy this as snow. I would believe a changeover to sleet before buying over 10 inches of snow for lets say Eastern L.I.

Now, there is nothing normal about this storm (how many times have I said that this year!) From the overrunning event..to the large discrepancy in the cutoffs ( Areas in south Jersey getting 1 inch and areas in central Jersey getting closer to a foot) So, for now...yes...would think NYC and western L.I. might get into bigger numbers...over 6. Only a nutjob would put that in pen though.

Other things about this make me feel more confident in it happening though. For many years the EURO model was King...but its had a rough winter. This run by the GFS is almost identical to every run by the GFS over the past 5 days..and I will always bite at a consistent model then a model who is all over the place...yet viewed as the most accurate.

The Euro has shown every option available to mankind. Rainstorm...snowstorm...no storm..over the past 3 days. My guess is what usually happens is the model that is consistent remains so...and the other models begin to join in 2 to 3 days before.

So much more to talk about...but let me just finish watching the whole run.

 

Dont know where to start. After the storm comes through, temps get near or even in may parts, below zero Wednesday morning. Areas from NC/SC do not hit freezing on Wednesday...very cold after the storm.

 

The storm starts Sunday....and right now its a lighter snow event for Sunday in to Sunday night. By the time Monday morning arrives, all hell breaks loose and heavy snow during the day Monday into Monday night for many. Snow tapers off Tuesday morning. Accumulations this far out mean very little but you can see the starting point with the models and let see where they go from there.

Almost the entire state of of P.A. gets over 8" of snow..and areas about 20 to 30 miles north of the Penn TPK get over a foot.

Same could be said for NY State..with the lower 1/3rd getting over a foot of snow..including the Hudson Valley.

Top 2/3rds of Jersey get over 8" with the top third..lets say from exit 140 on the parkway north getting over a foot.

NYC and almost all of L.I...hell..thats splitting hairs..all of L.I. over a foot.

All of Conn..and most of Mass...over a foot.

Now...IMPORTANT 2 things.

1. Areas that suffer mixing will probably suffer mixing. Thats why we cant take the above numbers to heart..YET. L.I. and NYC and the Jersey shore..will continue to see what the models do with those places as we get closer...but as you can see, the numbers are telling us no mixing right now.

2. I post these numbers only because this model has now put out these numbers 4 days in a row. The big question is does the EURO tonight budge. If it does..this thing gets locked in pretty solid. If it doesn't, then still leaning this way but cant lock it in yet.