Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Hey MZ,
Last night CBG said there was one guy from abc 7 that mentioned the potential of this. One thing about the local guys is unlike me...what do I lose from being wrong, they can kill ratings by throwing out long range snow storms that dont happen. Very risky in their defense. What bothers me about them is that they should...should..at least throw out there..hey gang..we are keeping an eye out for Sunday/Monday..long way out so you never know but we are watching something. Nothing wrong with that right?

I mean...every model NOW has a huge snowstorm over several days..here is the one thing that could happen where you get a foot of snow...but less of an event. If it comes in waves...you are dealing with 6 here....4 there..and 4 there..so its manageable. I just think as it gets closer it becomes a 2 hit event with the overrunning Sunday..and then the storm itself moving along the front that becomes a heavy event for Monday. How long does it last after that is the question.

 

same as rest CMAN...over 8 for all.

JONNY....ONE GOOD THING...this 2 piece system may allow the first batch to be light..then the main storm Monday...not sure of timing yet..will be on later this afternoon.

 

All I can say from the latest GFS run..if this were to be..it would start slowly on Sunday and end Wednesday morning. Now...lol..I dont know how to interpret that..but it drops near 2 feet of snow from PA to Conn. Again...early...but getting late.

 

RIGHT NOW jon...I think landing will be ok. Im really concerned about that Monday flight. Again...this is a matter of a 100 mile swing north and we have ourselves down here a rain storm. Would love to see you land here and just rehop on a plane that day to Florida? That would be a great move.

 

and again..from the NWS for north jersey in this time frame..when they start showing snow likely this far out, its time to take this time seriously..also..look at the duration of the storm:

Sunday A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

• Sunday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

• Monday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

• Monday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

• Tuesday A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

Conservative Jon. Long range NWS will never have heavy snow..or blowing snow etc..it will just have snow. What has me is that it says snow likely and chances are high..in fact..since I posted that it looks higher now:

• Sunday A chance of light snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
• Sunday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
• Monday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
• Monday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
• Tuesday A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Up to 70 percent this far out? never seen that before...ever. Jon..this Monday thing has me a bit concerned for your trip. I am a vacation guy...love them..when people here tell me they are going on vacation and need weather...I know what its like to be stranded for something you are really looking forward to. So if some might think i am overreacting....too bad. Im worried that if you do not get out on Monday...you do not get out until Wednesday..and if you can move up leaving on Sunday...do it.

Now...this still has a 3o or 40 percent chance of not killing flights for Monday...but for a vacation? Thats not good odds for me bud.

 

and another thing Jon...by Friday..this idea of moving up will be on everyones mind and it will not be possible. If you can...do it bud.

 

Still a bit of time for changes jon..and it wouldnt surprise me this winter..just do not like all the agreement with models going on right now. Now there are differences..just not sure if they add up to any changes.

Euro still has a storm but says no to the polar vortex and pushes the cold air out..but only up to a bit north of I 80.

Canadian blah blah...the middle models have the storm but in varying degrees.

GFS most bullish...bottom line is I get moving parts around but perhaps moving a flight around and just getting there? Just a thought....lets see if things change tonite.

 

The event could be a long one Brad...but doubt the blizzard part. No models have a deep low..its really a weird setup. This is not a monster storm in terms of strength..how low can a low get like the last one.

This storm is an overrunning event..with a stationary front that separates cold air from warm air..and a decent size low bringing precip from the Gulf of Mexico up...and over the front. Whoever is on the other side of the front gets heavy snows.

Now the reason for the long duration is the front will stall..and several low pressures will ride the front until something kicks the front in the ass and out. There is blocking to the north not allowing that. So...again....you could get a storm that dumps the most snow all year...but is not the strongest of the storms to hit.

 

Now just to repeat...where this could bust kind of? for snow lovers..and be good news for snow haters is the following scenario:

The storm starts Sunday with the overrunning precip..and lasts all day to varying intensities...total 6"
The first wave rides the front...and after a several hours of nothing you get another hit of about the same...then another lull. That would be during the day Monday.

Then another several hour lull and another low rides the front and another 6 or so inches. Over a 30 hour period you get 16-22" of snow....but its March..and the temps for the storm are upper 20s lower 30s. Have seen this setup before..not to this extent but lesser and similar.

When its over its a helluva event...but manageable. This is being portrayed by several models as a possibility. I just think the scenario that makes most sense is overrunning Sunday..then a decent lull...and heavy snow Monday into Monday night and Tuesday..and that wouldn't be manageable.

Again..its early..lets see if tonight brings any good news for snow haters..cause I get how this is getting on peoples nerves.

 

and the latest GFS run. Again, its early..but you can see the huge numbers it continues to throw out..many over a foot of snow.