Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Damn Jonnny....thought so. Ok...lets see what tonight brings. Now, I have to tell you...lets hope it doesnt happen. Where are you flying out of...that might be important.

 

That surprises me Hiker...I know the temps dump even down by you but I have yet to see models depicting snow that far south? Maybe ..let me check tonight bud.

 

I read this quickly hiker...NEXT Wednesday to Saturday. Well, my first post about this storm mentions not wanting to depress everyone on the long range showing a huge snow storm for next Friday but thats what these sites do...they draw from one model and go with it. Im not sure that will be the case...temps drop at end of this week...thats for sure.

 

And this thing is a long lasting storm too. Over 24 hours.

Jonny..again...50/50...but maybe at least check flights to get here Saturday night and leave Sunday morning? Dont do it..just check if possible..and if it is..why not?

 

lol..the reason is this CBG. This came on with every model today..let me explain the setup and why Im concerned this will probably not miss right now..it could..but this far out its looking as good as it can get.

Arctic front comes through and stalls to our south..storm in southern central usa starts cranking and begins throwing precip up our way over the cold air and well before the center of the storm is near us.

This is called an overrunning event..so what you have is 2 storms in one. You get a front batch of snow and either it is one system that just keeps dumping snow or becomes 2 waves. Not sure about it coming in 2's but bottom line is what they are seeing is a very prolonged event. When the EURO starts throwing out over a foot of snow within 5 days of the event, you have to take it serious.

Now, you say they said Monday Tuesday and that could be Jonnnyd saving grace. While the models have moved it up 24 hours, some times they re-correct the event and hopefully thats the case here where within the next 48 hours, the models slowed down the initial approach.

Lets see what the models do tonight but my guess is the GFS will do something stupid at 1030 because it can never be consistent and the EURO will act like a horse with blinders on...steady as she goes..and show the storm again.

 

and the GFS follows up with a megastorm that lasts 3 days and dumps over 2 feet of snow...will post pic.

 

Ok...before you have a heart attack, here is the GFS...our American model that earlier today had north jersey getting no snow at all. So, again, grain of salt. Now with that said something interesting is beginning to take place with the models on a long snow event. So while you may want to dismiss this model projection...I am right now...the EURO shows over a foot of snow for many. It also shows a very long event..over 24 hours. The GFS has close to a 72 hour event. So something is going on here that could be very significant.

Again...weary of this model run but you get the point on how widespread this storm MIGHT be:

 

Not sure why the color graph was not captured but generally speaking..blues are 1 to 4..lighter to darker...pinks are 6 to 11..lighter to darker...yellows are 12 to 20..lighter to darker. Oranges over 20.

 

End result..but that map does not extend all the way out by you..its higher by you. The time cutoff is too early..so yellow up by you too.

Overnight models..this is a very unusual storm as I see it..comes in waves...perhaps 3? Im not sure..but its, to say the least, very rare. Checking morning models and then will post. NWS to say the least, is concerned about this one. Very.

 

Things can change but this is what its looking like now. This is a 32 to 40 hour event. This is a loaded moisture overrunning very cold air event...meaning..its not a blizzard or wind driven snow. Its just a stalled front with moisture running over the front..and dumping heavy snow..heavy snow..north of the mason dixon line. The blocking to the north will not allow this thing to just run away....its a long long event beginning Sunday and maybe not ending until Tuesday morning.

Temps in the beginning will be warmer so some may start as a mix or rain..then temps crash. Now..the models may be very confused and not getting this setup but as I see it right now..this is not just one single storm..but several waves running along a stalled front. GFS again came back with 18 to 24 for north jersey. Euro was over a foot for almost all.

 

And to the south...areas of VA/MD/NC...heavy ice storm..heavy ice storm.

 

Yeah Jon...again..dont know what to tell you other than you getting here Saturday and leaving Sunday...AGAIN...its early..but getting late. If this thing is still modeled this way by Friday night, you have a problem.

Now, March storms...you need cold temps to make it a shutdown storm because of the time of year and sun etc. Just wish you were doing everything 24 hours in advanced.