TE Prospects

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/jacob -pedersen?id=2543885

Jacob Pedersen
TE Wisconsin



Grade
5.28 ?

• 4.89 SEC
• 28.5 INCH
• 111.0 INCH
• 7.55 SEC
• 4.40 SEC
• 12.19 SEC
  Top Performer

Blue Star = Top Performer

• 6'3" Height
• 31 3/4" Arm Length
• 238LBS. Weight
• 9" Hands

Overview
2013: Honorable mention All-Big Ten selection. Started in 12 games and had 551 receiving yards. 2012: First-team All-Big Ten pick after playing in all 14 games and making nine starts. 2011: Honorable mention All-Big Ten pick and was a Mackey Award semifinalist (given to nation's top tight end). Had a career-high eight touchdown receptions. 2010: Played in all 13 games and made four starts. 2009: Redshirted. High school: Played for a team that won two Division 5 state championships.

Analysis
Strengths
Used inline, in motion, in the backfield and as lead blocker. Gets off the line cleanly (smoother than sudden). Does the dirty work and is willing to mix it up inside -- displays leverage, knee bend and competitiveness. Effective move blocker. Good personal and football character.
Weaknesses
Has short arms and small hands. Lacks ideal bulk strength. At a size disadvantage vs. NFL defensive ends. Ordinary acceleration and foot speed, especially for his size. Does not threaten the seam and lacks suddenness to separate vs. athletic defenders. Lets throws into his body and is not strong-handed. Average strength and elusiveness after catch. Does not exhibit fullback-caliber pop on contact to consider for conversion.
Bottom Line
A valuable part of the Wisconsin offense, Pedersen is not equipped to line up as an in-line tight end, but could function as a complementary H-back capable of deploying in multiple spots and catching short-to-intermediate passes in the playaction game.
-Nolan Nawrocki

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/richard-rodgers?id=2543569

Richard Rodgers
TE California



Grade
5.2 ?

• 4.87 SEC
• 16 REPS
• 31.5 INCH
• 116.0 INCH
• 7.23 SEC
• 4.47 SEC

• 6'4" Height
• 32 5/8" Arm Length
• 257LBS. Weight
• 10 1/8" Hands

Overview
2013: Moved from tight end to receiver after losing 30 pounds (275 to 245) after playing tight end in 2011-12. 2012: Played in 11 games and started in six. 2011: One of three true freshmen to play in all 13 games. Misc.: Father, Richard Sr., played for California and was involved in "The Play" in 1982 (made the final of five laterals). Richard Sr. is currently a special teams coordinator under Ron Rivera in Carolina.

Analysis
Strengths
Good balance and body control. Dependable short-to-intermediate receiver. Can snatch throws off his body and make contested grabs. Has potential as a move blocker. Showed dedication and discipline re-shaping his body as a junior. Coach’s son.
Weaknesses
Tight hips. Average speed and suddenness -- dull in/out of breaks and struggles to separate vs. more explosive safeties. Unrefined route runner. Straightlinish after the catch. Started just 11 games in three seasons.
Bottom Line
Rodgers’ career arc was affected by Cal’s coaching turnover, as the former high school receiver was recruited as a tight end by Jeff Tedord’s staff and bulked up to 275 pounds as a sophomore when he was out of shape, in part because of a torn labrum and torn foot ligament. As a junior, Rodgers shed 30 pounds and shifted to inside receiver for Sonny Dykes, enabling him to show his more natural “F” tight end skills. Is an unpolished product, but could be a better pro than college player.
-Nolan Nawrocki

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/colt-lyerla?id=2543636

Colt Lyerla
TE Oregon



Grade
5.33 ?

• 4.61 SEC
  Top Performer
• 15 REPS
• 39.0 INCH
  Top Performer
• 128.0 INCH
  Top Performer

Blue Star = Top Performer

• 6'4" Height
• 32 3/4" Arm Length
• 242LBS. Weight
• 10 1/4" Hands

• 
• More Combine Video

Overview
2013: Played and started three games. Left team and withdrew from school due to personal reasons. 2012: Honorable Mention All-Pac 12. Played in 13 games, started nine. Led Pac-12 tight ends in yards per catch (15.7). 2011: Played 12 games, did not start. High School: No. 4 OLB nationally by scout.com. All-State in Oregon at running back and Second Team All-State at LB in senior year. All-State at both RB and LB as junior. Broke vertical leap and broad jump record at 2010 National Underclassman combine with 40-inch vertical and 10-10 broad jump. Misc: Arrested on cocaine-possession charges in October 2013 and eventually pleaded guilty. Suspended for one game in 2013 for a violation of team rules, then missed another game because of missing practices due to being ill. Then left the team due to personal reasons.

Analysis
Strengths
Good athlete. Fluid route runner. Very good body control. Adjusts easily to the ball. Can create in the open field with very good run skills. Natural hands. Good catching radius. Functional blocker with enough playing strength to sustain. Highly competitive and determined to prove critics wrong. Is smart and hardworking.
Weaknesses
Lacks ideal bulk strength to block in-line. Overly emotional and prone to outbursts following a dysfunctional childhood that offered little direction and much confusion related to a divorce. Not a disciplined team player. Off-the-field issues linger. Drops were too consistent (see West Virginia).
Bottom Line
A physically talented receiving tight end, Lyerla was overshadowed by the play of emerging freshman Johnny Mundt and litany of issues (suspensions, drugs, academics). Has overcome a lot of adversity stemming back to his youth and defied the odds to become an impactful performer. Talent grades could garner interest in the second round, but past history could easily knock him down several rounds and off many draft boards. Would benefit tremendously from a coach willing to serve as a strong father figure.
-Nolan Nawrocki

 

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/joedon-duncan?id=2543576

Joe Don Duncan
TE Dixie St.



Grade
5.0 ?

• 35 REPS
  Top Performer

Blue Star = Top Performer

• 6'3" Height
• 32 3/8" Arm Length
• 268LBS. Weight
• 10 1/2" Hands

Overview
2013: First-team AP Little All-American after becoming the only player in school history with a 1,000-yard season. Was a first-team All-Great Northwest Athletics Conference pick. 2012: Missed the season with a knee injury. 2011: Started in 10 games, finishing with 64 receptions for 949 yards and nine touchdowns. 2010: Played in eight games at El Camino Community College. 2009: Played in four games at El Camino Community College. 2008:: Broke femur, forcing him to take a redshirt while at Sacramento State. Misc.: Listens to Elton John before every game.

Analysis
Strengths
Big, soft hands and adjusts very well to the ball -- outstanding hand placement and catching radius. Good muscularity and weight-room strength. Very good coverage recognition -- feels his way through zones and finds open areas. Will drop his shoulder and barrell through contact. Flashes some power running after the catch. Respected, vocal, emotional team leader and it shows. Extremely smart. Outstanding football IQ. Football is extremely important to him. Emergency kicker and long-snapper. Superb production for a tight end.
Weaknesses
Has short arms. Average foot speed. Benefited heavily from facing inferior competition (able to separate vertically vs. small, slow defensive backs). Unsudden route runner. Not distinguished as an in-line blocker and plays down to the competition. Very inconsistent second-level blocker -- does not sustain or finish. Will be a 25-year-old rookie. Durability is a concern -- had multiple surgeries on his right leg.
Bottom Line
A big fish in a small pond, Duncan stands out against lesser competition and could have made a statement in postseason all-star competition to solidify his draft standing. However, he broke his foot training for the Senior Bowl and only showed to interview. Age and injury history can diminish his value, but he possesses the intelligence, leadership traits and versatility desired at the bottom of a roster. Long-snapping ability could be his ticket.
-Nolan Nawrocki

 

Most of the TEs are pass catchers, but not all. Fiedorowicz and Niklas are 2-way TEs. They won't stretch the field as Ebron does, but are better blockers and probably better red zone threats due to their size. Ebron hasn't scored a lot of TDs, and wasn't as effective in the Red Zone.

I care for one. When the TE is one-dimensional it limits the offense and makes the offense more predictable and easy to defend. I've seen enough of that crap. I want a 2-way TE so the opposing D won't know whether he's going to block or go out on routes. Most importantly, the Jets just need a TE who can be a safety valve for Geno and keep the chains moving. They don't necessarily need a TE who is a mismatch. It would be nice, but isn't critical. I'd much rather use the top pick on one of the WRs than a TE.

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46280/349/peshek-te-metrics

Peshek: TE Metrics
Wednesday, February 19, 2014

This tight end class boasts a number of extremely productive players which makes analysis of their receiving targets very interesting. However, each player examined here was successful in a unique way which is what actually makes them worth analyzing. In this piece, I broke them down only by their receiving targets but added in a few metrics that would separate this from past wide receiver columns.

All the targets were hand charted by me from every game of these players. If you’re missing your favorite TE such as C.J. Fiedorowicz or Xavier Grimble - it’s because their receptions were so limited that a good sample size wasn’t possible. In the piece, Austin Seferian-Jenkins will be referred to in the charts as ASJ.

Where Did They Catch the Ball? The table below represents the percentage of catches in each zone, it is color-coded so that an above-average number of receptions is greener and a below-average number is redder.




- The distribution of Amaro’s catches really represents what we see on tape – that is, a high number of throws underneath to get him in a position to gain yards after the catch. In that sense, he wasn’t the traditional seam threat you might expect for a taller TE.

- Ebron and Niklas represent the more traditional threats down the field you’d think of from a TE. Both caught a higher than average percentage of their receptions in the intermediate zones. Niklas in particular caught 71.9% of completions in the 6-20 yard range.

- Most peculiar is that Seferian-Jenkins was used as a screen threat on 25% of his receptions. Per the charts, he did an excellent job catching balls down the field – but we’ll see that he’s certainly not a YAC threat. The amount of screens he was used on is a bit baffling.

- Richard Rodgers was the most limited of the 5, catching half of his passes in the short zone and failing to tally a screen or pass deeper than 20 yards.

What Did They Do After They Caught It?



- For Niklas, this is really a reinforcement of his ability as a seam threat. Although many will tag him with the ‘blocking TE’ label, he caught the ball further downfield than any Tight End in this class. Considering his size, averaging 6.4 yards after the catch is a feat certainly worthy of praise.

- As a bit of a TE/WR hybrid, we’d expect good YAC numbers from Richard Rodgers, but not necessarily as high as 8.17 yards after the catch.

- Noted earlier, Seferian-Jenkins is never going to break any records for yards after the catch. He just doesn’t have the ability to accelerate and get up field which is why he averaged a group low 3.4 yards after the catch. He did however catch the ball 8.8 yards from the LOS showing an ability to stretch the field.

- You’ll note that Eric Ebron’s metrics in this category look similar to Richard Rodgers. Where Rodgers caught the ball slightly further down the field and averaged less YAC, Ebron leads the class with 8.84 yards after the catch. That’s a number that rivals top WRs in the class like Mike Evans and Allen Robinson.

- Jace Amaro averaged a respectable 5.82 yards after the catch due in large part to a number of short passes. Both Ebron and Amaro caught the ball 6.9 yards down the field, but did so in different ways. Ebron’s average is comprised largely of screens and intermediate passes, while Amaro’s comes from a litany of quick comebacks and crossing routes.

- Theoretically, a TE’s strength and size should separate them from a bigger WR. That should lead to the ability to generate yards after contact when running with the ball. Here are the yards after contact for this group:

• Niklas: 3.63
• Rodgers: 3.31
• ASJ: 1.69
• Ebron: 3.5
• Amaro: 2.96

Where Did They Line Up?
Where a TE aligns pre-snap is currently a hot topic and will continue to be as offenses spread out. Does a TE have the ability to put his hand in the dirt, is he always in the slot, how versatile is he? The chart below represents their alignment pre-snap on the totality of their targets.


- Amaro represents the TE we’re most likely to think of as an over-sized slot receiver. He still lined up for 11.8% of his targets on the offensive line, but spent an overwhelming majority of his time in the slot.

- With a bit more versatility, 21.7% of Ebron’s targets came in-line. He also has experience on the outside of the formation where 6.5% of his total targets came.

- Seferian-Jenkins by far showed the most experience in different alignments. 47% of his targets came after lining up with his hand in the dirt, while another 40% were a result of either starting in the slot or outside.

- Representing the more ‘traditional’ TE, Troy Niklas started alongside the offensive line 71% of the time. Compared to his fellow TEs who all had significant experience in the slot, Niklas only saw 13.7% of his targets come from the slot. This may make it all the more impressive that Niklas was able to get so many receptions deep down the field.

How Are Their Hands?
As the convergence of TEs and WRs continues, drop rate becomes a much more important metric to analyze in regard to these players. Tight ends will often have higher drop rates than wide receivers, so we’ll be less harsh on them. However, if a TE is being marketed as a ‘receiving’ player, you can’t always cut them slack for drops.



- Amaro’s drop rate of 7.7% is about average for a receiving TE. If we were talking about a receiver, we’d be getting into concerning territory – but again TEs get cut a bit of slack.

- Here’s Ebron’s dirty little secret – his hands just aren’t as good as some make them out to be. He made some nice one-handed grabs, but he also has a 11.43% drop rate which is not something to be overlooked.

- Seferian-Jenkins is in wide receiver territory here, only dropping 5.4% of his total targets. Nothing to worry about with his hands.

- Right in the middle between safe and danger territory is Troy Niklas who dropped 8.57% of his catchable targets. Unlike players like Amaro and Ebron, his targets were limited and this number was more easily skewed by a few drops.

That’s all I have for now. I’ll answer any questions and tweet out additional info such as red zone target percentage and more on Twitter @NU_Gap. Thanks for reading.

 

Fair enough. We just disagree. I don't think the 2-way TE is a dying breed or at least it doesn't have to be. Having a TE that can't block hurts an offense in more ways than just making the offense more predictable imo.

I've never said that Ebron can't block, I just think that there are a couple of prospects that can block better (Niklas and Fiedorowicz). Looking at the TE Metrics article, Niklas is almost as good as Ebron in getting down the seam, being a mismatch and is a better blocker. I'd rather have the elite WR prospect at #18 and Niklas in either the 2nd or 3rd round, than Ebron and take a chance on missing out on any of the topflight WR prospects.

 

I agree that the Jets need a substantial upgrade at TE. That's where our agreement ends. I've always liked Ebron and won't be upset if the Jets do take him, but at this point at least, I prefer Niklas or Fiedorowicz and a great WR prospect. Especially after reading the TE Metrics article and another article that posited that Ebron might not stand up to the pounding he'd take going over the middle in the NFL, I'm a lot less sold on him.

 

Definitely, we can agree to disagree, and we aren't even that much in disagreement. As I've said, I like Ebron, and will be perfectly happy if the Jets draft him as long as they still get a topflight WR prospect, I'm just not as big a fan or as sold on him as you are.

I understand that articles are just one person's opinion. I'm not saying the Ebron should be downgraded on the assumption that he will get hurt, but think it is a consideration, as in general, TEs seem to have a shorter career with all the pounding they take, and as with any faster player, the more pounding they take, the more it seems to affect their speed and play. More damning for me was that article's questioning of Ebron's hands. I had always just assumed his occasional dropped pass was a lack of focus, which can be fairly easily fixed. Ebron had a lot more drops than I thought, so it might not just be a matter of focus.

I agree that Fiedorowicz will probably never keep a DC up at night, however Niklas might in time. He's still learning and relatively inexperienced as a TE. He has the speed and ability to be a mismatch as well.

If one of Mack, Barr, Watkins, Evans or Bridgwater are there along with Ebron at #18, I'd take the other player and not look back. I seriously doubt any of them (including Ebron) will be. If Ebron is there and none of the others are, he will definitely be the bpa, so from that perspective alone, he should be the pick. I think you're right that if he's there, Ebron will be the pick. If he is, we'll just have to hope that he will be as dynamic a player as you think, will fix his drops issue, and stay healthy.

Because I respect your opinion so much, I will definitely look at some more film of Ebron, and probably would have anyway since the draft is so far off.

 

Thanks. I agree that we most often seem to agree, or have very similar opinions and thought processes.

Yeah, Mack is special. As much as I'd love for the Jets to get Teddy Bridgewater or Sammy Watkins, I'd love for them to get Mack just as much.

I agree that if Ebron falls it won't be because of a lack of ability.

I love your scenario! That would be awesome, although I sure wish we could add two of those players.