Offseason Direction

One thing you have to ask yourself before you really can make prophecies about the Jets' offseason is what is the makeup of the team, and what is their direction? I see 2013 as a season that tested both Rex's coaching ability and his compatibility with John Idzik (a sentiment not singular to myself). After apparently testing well, Rex has a core of what has the potential to be an excellent defense. While spending modestly in free agency, he filled every roster hole with low profile players, primarily on short term deals. In the 2013 draft Idzik went BPA down the line, and basically made sure to draft versatile players and build some depth to the team. Since we had filled every roster hole before the draft, each player selected was made to compete as opposed to being handed the starting role (with exception of Dee Milliner). You can look at the Seahawks as a sort of blueprint for what Idzik has planned, but don't expect a perfect replication since what they have achieved is a result of a lot of luck and truly exceptional talent evaluation.

Our team is built around a dominant defensive line, and hopefully in this coming year an overall dominant defense. Wilkerson and Richardson are the centerpieces, and Harrison is the perfect compliment to them as a top tier run stuffer with a very very low cap hit. Wilkerson and Richardson will be demanding double teams on most plays, and with a front three that strong versus the run many run plays will be designed to hit the outside. Coples is basically a glorified defensive lineman, and his primary job is to rush the passer taking on single blocks, curtesy of the 'sons. Coples' superior athleticism for a D-end is one of the reasons he had a number of stops in the run game; he can play from the hash-marks to the sideline better than the average D-end, hence Rex's utilization of him in the OLB position. It is definitely a modified OLB, because they don't require him to cover as much. One of the reasons they are able to do this stems from DeMario Davis' speed and coverage ability from the center of the field. Pace was able to have an excellent year since he is an intelligent, diligent player who's experience in Rex's system gave him numerous opportunities to exploit opposing offenses who gave too much attention to the 'sons. Pace is a role player, but unless we somehow draft/sign an immediate 3-down OLB we should definitely keep a roster spot for him. He should be able to be used well in rotation with Barnes, a speed-rushing smaller OLB.

Our secondary is clearly our weakest defensive corps, and it is likely to see the most change this offseason. Milliner came on strong at the end of the year, and his confidence boost combined with his very high ceiling leads me to anticipate a breakout season for him in 2014. Cromartie is an interesting player, as it is unclear whether his best playing days are past him or not. Just looking at common patterns in CB's, I expect Cro to be a red chip player for a few years yet. He is still exceptionally athletic and much more mature; he was leading into the 2013 season and we all expected a season resembling his 2012 outing, possibly even an improved version. I see no reason to expect a big drop off in his play assuming he regains his physical health. I foresee Cro being cut and re-signed or signed to an extension that spreads his money out over another couple years. Our safeties are then the biggest question, and the position with the most variety in options. There are a few blue chip safeties available to be signed, but Rex hasn't signed a blue chip safety as a FA in his tenure with the Jets. LaRon Landry was arguably a blue chip safety, but remember they signed him to a prove it contract so I see no reason to expect the Jets to sign TJ Ward or Jairus Byrd. Honestly I expect the Jets to go into the draft with Josh Bush, Antonio Allen, and Dawan Landry as the safety rotation. Don't be surprised if Ed Reed makes his way to the Jets training camp as well.

Offensively, we have many more free agents and overall roster holes. Geno showed enough this season to be one of the key competitors for starting QB, but not nearly enough to run away with the job. The Jets need someone who is going to be legitimate competitor, someone who can step in for injury or can take over mid-game if Geno wins the competition but struggles. The only players who I believe can do these things are Michael Vick, Matt Schaub, or Matt Moore (who is not a FA but is a potential cap-causalty. If the Dolphins are smart they'll keep him around). Our offensive line is not as bad as some people seem to think, and they've been remarkably hard on Brian Winters who is a 3rd round rookie after all. He has the tools to become a very solid starter, so depth would be good but with a pro offseason program I see no reason not to expect Winters to start at LG. I like that Howard is in contract talks, because he has preformed well and as long as the Jets are smart about the negotiations I think Howard will soon outplay his contract. For a young QB, continuity is ideal so I believe the Jets will have 4 of 5 linemen starting again this coming year. If Geno continues to be our starter, we're going to want to have powerful running game to take the pressure off of him. We have the makings of just that, but RG should be a position of strength to give Ivory some solid holes to burst through. Will Campbell is an ex-defensive lineman converted to play offense, so he has good measurables but will need to continue to work on a lot of technique. He is a project player, so he is a bit of a mystery as to what his potential will be. If the Jets see he or Aboushi as having true starting potential, they may not dedicate much to an outside RG. I see them as depth for the 2014 season, perhaps more down the line, but if Idzik is trying to model the Jets after the Seahawks, these late round players may have a substantial role sooner than we think.

Our WR corps was our worst position group, but that also means it will be the most fun to watch during FA and the draft. Holmes will probably be out, so our corps will consist of Kerley, Hill, and Nelson. That is truly dreadful. Now personally I'd really love to sign Decker and Maclin as free agents, because we need two starters at the position. If we don't sign both starters as FA's, it forces us to reach for a starter in the draft. I'd like to get Decker to a multi year deal and sign Maclin to a one year prove it deal post injury. I know that is idealistic but we have the cap space. I don't want to overpay for either, so we'll see if the price for WR FA's becomes inflated. Sanders is on the radar as a #2 guy as well, the problem is that if Decker gets pricey and we end up taking Maclin and Sanders, Sanders tops out as a #2 and if Maclin is not at top form after his injury, we're stuck without a true #1 receiver again. If we can get Decker, we are getting a guy who is perfect for our offense as a #1 because he is a consistent blocker, which is great for a run first offense. Maclin has the potential to be a game breaker if he does come back fully from his injury, so we would suddenly have a position of strength where we so recently had weakness.

At TE I'd like to bring back Cumberland, although he did not produce as much as I'd hoped in 2013. I think he can be had at a very reasonable contract, and will likely be a much better producer with a better cast of receivers around him. He won't be a top option but will give us a big guy in the middle. I feel as though we don't need to sign another RB unless Goodson looks like he'll be spending significant time unavailable due to legal troubles. Ivory is capable of both carrying the load and making big plays, and will be a big part of our offense in 2014 barring injury.

If I had my ideal situation, positionally we'd look like:

QB: Geno Smith, Michael Vick
RB: Chris Ivory, Mike Goodson, Bilal Powell
FB: Tommy Bohanon
WR: Eric Decker, Jeremy Maclin, Jeremy Kerley, David Nelson, Stephen Hill, Martavis Bryant (3rd)
TE: Jeff Cumberland, Jace Amaro (1st)
LT: D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Ben Ijalana
LG: Brian Winters
C: Nick Mangold, Dalton Freeman
RG: Will Campbell
RT: Austin Howard, Oday Aboushi

LDE: Muhammad Wilkerson
NT: Damon Harrison, Kenrick Ellis
RDE: Sheldon Richardson
LOLB: Quinton Coples, Trent Murphy (2nd)
ILB: DeMario Davis,
ILB: David Harris, Nick Bellore
ROLB: Calvin Pace, Antwan Barnes
CB: Antonio Cromartie, Dee Milliner, Kyle Wilson, Louchiez Purifoy (3rd) Ellis Lanskter
S: Dawan Landry, Antonio Allen, Josh Bush, Ed Reed

Anything below the 3rd round is a bit ridiculous for me to put on paper at this point, even the 3rd rounders I've listed could be any CB and WR with a high ceiling. I'm all for value in the draft, but if it shook out like this I'd be happy. I'm sure the players I have the Jets drafting will change after the combine as well.

 

First, Vick may be injury prone but he's not going to be our only option, and honestly why would you bring in a QB who doesn't want to start? That's just plain argumentative foolishness, if we had Peyton Manning sure we'd only need a benchwarmer but the whole point is to bring in a guy to challenge Geno. Also, why don't you list a FA WR who would have played better than Decker vs Richard Sherman? Oh yeah, there isn't one, or even 5 Wr's in the league who would have, so that's more argumentative BS.

I agree the chances of getting Maclin from the Eagles are slim, but we can hope. McCluster is a good player but I'd rather sign every down guys and look to the draft for a gadget player, who will be much cheaper. He is definitely a guy to keep an eye on though.

Vick is honestly a good fit for us. A mobile QB with a familiarity with Mornhinweg's system, and a guy who handled losing his job to Nick Foles with class. He can win us a game or two, and will have a lot less pressure on him with a defense as good as ours. Don't forget Mornhinweg was his OC during his comeback player of the year season. Even if we bring him in I don't expect him to start, more likely he'll be a legitimate backup/alternative to Geno. I really don't see why everyone is hating on Decker so much, he'd be a great player to have. Literally the ONLY reason he wouldn't be a great addition is if another team runs his contract up through by bidding. It is not totally impossible that we could get him at a reasonable price.

 

I don't understand, you don't want to sign Vick because there's a chance he could outplay Geno in the QB competition? That's the whole point. This assumption that Vick will only go to a team who will make him automatic starter is totally unfounded, and how many teams would actually do that? Maybe Oakland might, but might not and honestly East Rutherford is a lot closer to Philly than Oakland.

I will watch the Superbowl again with a closer eye on Decker's matchup but I believed Sherman was on Decker for most of the game, and Sherman is very very good, he's a completely different style of CB than Revis but great none the less.

 

Not true, Sherman is significantly bigger than Revis. Revis is physical for his size but he is a good 4 inches shorter, and has much shorter arms. Sherman uses the leverage of his size to excel in press coverage and then physically dominates the WR for contested balls, and uses excellent closing speed combined with those long arms to defend passes. Earl Thomas is part of why he is good, but Sherman mentally dominates his opponents as well. Revis on the other hand uses press coverage, but he has simply perfected man coverage even playing off man when he has to. His footwork, balance, and overall technique are stunning, and he uses perfect body placement on every pass defended to get to the ball first. He doesn't have the luxury of long arms or elite safety in the middle of the field. When I say Sherman is more physical than Revis, it is no slight on Revis. Revis uses more precision physicality if that makes sense.

 

Clearly, it had nothing to do with a dreadful defense or a scattershot offensive line. Yes, Michael Vick hasn't played like a pro-bowler in a couple of years, but lets be real in 2013 Matt Schaub stunted a super bowl contending Texans team way more than a gracious Michael Vick stunted a young QB taking over. Vick is just a polarizing player, but he has been an ideal teammate since returning to the league, he is all around a better player than any other available QB, and he fits on our team for a number of reasons.

 

I don't think investing into a large contract with Worilds is a good idea because we will soon be paying a number of home-grown guys, the core of our entire team actually, and they happen to mostly play d-line and d-line/LB positions. OLB is really not the place we want to be locking up money for multiple years since Rex can clearly the much cheaper guys he drafts plenty well. We should spend money on our receiving corps because it is a much stronger need and will likely need the players we sign at that position for a longer period than we need an FA OLB. Worilds is a top option at the OLB/DE positions so he will definitely demand a contract that will likely run 4-5 years, and that's just not where we need to spend $$ for 4-5 years.