Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Ok..I posted the NAM above...here is a local shot of NYC metro..two things to point out..the NAM couldnt tell snow from sleet if sleet was black and snow was..well..white.

So, for those getting sleet mixed in, thats why these number might be high for folks on the east side of it.

Two, this is 51 hours out from now..most of the storm is done here. 1am Friday totals.

Again, love the NAM but is it on some steroids? Tough to tell. Will look to see if the GFS gives in in a bit:



Oh...number 3...most important..check out AGAIN the cutoff east and west. 10 to 20 miles means 2 or 12 at least..is some cases in central jersey 30 miles could meant near 24 or 2. Again...really? Maybe.

 

be back in a bit. 2 more runs tonight..1 I will check out..1030 gfs...1am euro? Dont think so..but these two runs might tell the story.

 

BROOK!!!!..WTG BUD..NICE PREP...LIKE THE PATS GAME PART TOO.

CBG..the shore..yuck...yuck yuck. How is I dont know sound? Lol..let me see the GFS..if the GFS trends more east..then the shore gets more snow and ice..if it goes west...or stays the course...snow...to sleet..to rain..and lots of it with major beach erosion regardless...back to snow..so 2 to 4..then 2 if the GFS stays the course or goes west...brb...checking now.

 

FM...L.I....I mean..if its being downplayed because nobody can truly say snow much snow it will get....that I get..but this storm..deep low pressure...heavy winds for the Island...heavy preicp of all kinds? I dont get why anyone would downplay it.

Now..if they are looking for over a foot? half models say yes..half say no. Bottom line bud..and this is a first for me..I dont know.

I can promise you this..every weather person will bust except the ones that go out on a limb either way. If you say nyc is getting 3 to 6 and a major mix..i get it..if you are saying nyc is getting a foot..I get it..but saying somewhere in between which I guarantee most will do..that is not happening.

 

AND NOW...THE GFS MODEL...AND AGAIN...it says the storm takes a nap from D.C until New England..and trust me, I am not alone other that to say this model sucks..and its always been a top 3...and its the American model:

 

I expected the GFS by now to get it together...I mean the storm is less than 48 hours away for D.C. it usually saves itself.

Does it see something in the atmosphere that nobody else sees? After storms are over, people look back at certain models and say..oh...ok...thats what it saw.

The only thing I can guess..guess..is that the storm gets gulf of mexico help down south..and then runs into dry air in Jersey and about...and then recranks up north.

Im not proud to write that..but there isnt a soul who gets whats its thinking.

And finally guys, there is no agreement with any models right now. Im hoping tomorrow night there would be...has to be.

Models vary from I95 blizzard.
I95 mix
I95 turns to rain...and then whatever the hell the GFS is doing above.

So,again..I have no real idea at this point and anyone that says they do..is just going by one model and sticking with it..and thats no way to call a game.

 

Oh..and one more thing CBG...you were supposed to remind me about this...Im sitting here thinking...trends right? Trends.

2 DAYS AGO..there was incredible model agreement for the most part on a huge snow storm for almost everyone west of I95...SO...lets just stick with that.

 

and here is one more thing to remember as the storm comes..and goes. A few models have shown this..lets take NYC for a second.

Initial part of the storm...quick 4 to 6.
Sleet all day long and mixing
NOW THE IMPORTANT PART: Ending as snow..another 3 to 5. Some models keep saying lull..then a burst at the end.

Remind me about that Thursday lol.

and again...this storm..unlike other storms..doesnt start gradually...it comes in like a freight train with the ability to dump 5 or 7 inches in the first 4 to 5 hours. That is another consistent.

 

I wrote this 2 days ago...I had to go back and check..im getting old. Yes..except for the GFS, there was incredible agreement. The totals rose with all of them...but there was agreement..so lets stick with over a foot.

 

Yep Satan..didnt think about that. Wow...never thought about that.

Thats it for me guys..sorry to not nail this down by now with more confidence but im sure your local media guys will be doing this all night..and all day:

Well, if the storm does this..this might happen...and if the storm does that...that might happen..or maybe it does this...

Me? I have no idea..so you just go with the gut and if your wrong? Your wrong..sorry to the people counting on this stuff..but here is what we know for sure.

Beach erosion
Heavy winds.
Places with flat roofs and snow on them...oh boy..rain or snow.
long storm..over 24 hours long
major ice storm which we have not discussed down south..record breaking ice storm.
and someone is getting close to 2 feet of snow between D.C. and Boston..and about 40 miles west of I95 where the snow WILL happen....with no mixing.

 

from the NWS for my area:

Snow likely, mainly after 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Calm wind becoming northeast 5 to 7 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 31. Northeast wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

Thursday Night Periods of snow, mainly before 3am. Low around 20. Blustery, with a north wind 18 to 20 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

LINK:http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...2&site=all&smap=1&searchresult=Wayne, NJ, USA
That to me adds up to 10 to 16....sounds good.